Thickening clouds deliver pockets of light rain to New England today, and the lack of sunshine keeps temperatures from climbing much beyond 70 degrees – about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Although light rain will last through the afternoon and at least part of the evening in Southern New England, some of Central and Northern New England tapers earlier, by early evening, and Central/Northern Maine will see little rain at all. Even in wettest locations of MA, CT and RI, total rain amounts will only be either side of a quarter inch. Areas of fog will develop overnight as rain departs but the air remains moist, and pockets of fog and clouds will linger into Wednesday morning before burning off for a fantastic, fair day with highs nearing 80. An approaching cold front will likely touch off scattered showers and thunder in Maine and Northern New Hampshire Wednesday afternoon, opening the door to cooler air that will settle into most of Eastern New England for a day Thursday. The edge of this cool air – a frontal boundary – will stay near New England for several days ahead, but a strengthening southwest wind will at least push it northward for summer warmth to take hold of New England Friday and Saturday. By later Saturday, the same cold front begins a southward sag again, raising the chance for afternoon thunder in Northern New England and raising the chance of showers for all of New England on Sunday. Of course, behind the cold front would be cooler air that arrives at some point Sunday and into Memorial Day – if the air is cool and dry enough, showers will wind down in time for Memorial Day, but it’s too early to say for sure. Thereafter, pleasant weather is expected toward the end of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
Today is about as close to New England perfection as the weather comes – dry air, abundant sunshine and high temperatures in the 70s. With the fantastic weather comes a high UV index (don’t forget the sunscreen) and the air can dry the body out a bit, so hydration is important. In the North Country, a busy wind from the west-northwest increases brush fire danger with gusts over 30 mph, while the wind is lighter farther south, where an afternoon sea breeze may kick up right along the coast. As high pressure moves overhead, then east of New England, the door will open to moisture from the west, producing Monday showers in Chicago and set to bring increasing clouds to New England Monday night into Tuesday morning, and Tuesday afternoon showers that will last through Tuesday night, holding temperatures down a bit as a result. By Wednesday, sunshine returns and temperatures respond by rising back into the 70s. Although a quick shot of cool air is possible in Eastern New England on a northeast wind Thursday, the general trend heading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend will be for warming: highs should reach the 80s Friday and Saturday! The only catch to this summery holiday weekend forecast is the jet stream will be nearby – keep in mind the jet stream is the fast river of air high in the sky that steers disturbances in the atmosphere – and this means an increasing chance of showers and thunder. Saturday evening may bring some scattered storms, particularly in northern and western New England, Sunday will likely bring showers and storms with humid air, and Memorial Day has a 45% chance of showers lingering, according to our exclusive forecast system, so there’s still a chance the showers ship out in time.
A large dome of high pressure – fair weather – is flexing its muscle over Eastern Canada today, pressing enough dry air into New England to keep rain safely south of us, though some clouds continue riding overhead at high altitudes, dimming the sun over Southern New England at times. All the while, a northeast wind not only is carrying cool air southward from Canada, but also is moving across ocean water that is only in the lower 50s, meaning Friday’s warmest air temperature won’t exceed the 50s near the coast and 60s inland. Cool overnight temperatures Friday night will tumble into the 40s for most, but 30s in Northern New England, where a frost and freeze is a potential even as clouds gradually thicken overhead. Saturday will dawn dry for most, though rain will be advancing northeast across Connecticut between 6 and 8 AM, then the Boston area between 10 and Noon, not reaching Portland, ME, until mid-afternoon. Once the rain starts, it’ll keep temperatures cool and fall lightly, perhaps with an occasional burst of moderate rain in Western New England. This may not cancel all outdoor plans but will keep them damp, for sure. Sunday brings a totally different air with humidity increasing, breaks of sun driving temperatures well into the 70s and an approaching cold front triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Behind the front, Monday should be lovely, and aside from the chance of a few midweek showers, most of next week into Memorial Day Weekend is looking good in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast with slowly rising temperatures.
The air has completely changed across New England from yesterday, as a northeast wind is sweeping across the region, carrying cool and dry air from Canada. Aloft, the same feed of southern moisture that contributed to Tuesday’s thunderstorms hasn’t totally departed, which is why high-altitude clouds continue to obscure the sun. The southern stream of moisture is sending small storm centers rippling along yesterday’s severe weather producing cold front, now situated over the waters south of New England, and blossoms of rain mostly miss but will graze Southern New England later Wednesday evening and overnight, bringing some light showers to Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Most of this moisture retreats again Thursday, allowing for no more than an isolated shower in Southern New England with a light and variable wind that will allow temperatures to rise into the 70s for most. Friday brings the return of an onshore wind, meaning another cool day with lots of clouds and showers approaching from the south, eventually giving way to a cool rain Saturday. If all goes as planned, Sunday sees only scattered showers, meaning some breaks of sun and highs riding into the 70s. Some changeable temperatures lay ahead next week, but generally we should run warmer than normal for the latter half of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
New England is on guard for damaging thunderstorms today, particularly in Western Massachusetts and Connecticut, though isolated to scattered severe storms are possible farther east, as well. Though showers precede the storms for some in Central New England – and no severe weather is expected in Northern New England where numerous showers are falling today with embedded thunder – most of the thunderstorms will develop from 2 PM onward, west to east. The northern and western suburbs of Boston are likely to have thunderstorms by 4 PM, the City of Boston by 5 PM, Hartford around 5-6 PM and Southeast New England around and after dinner. The greatest concern with strong storms will be damaging wind and frequent lightning with torrential rain, though an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, particularly in Central or Eastern Connecticut this evening. Always be ready to seek shelter indoors, away from windows, when storms threaten, and stay tuned for updates on-air and online from NECN. Storms will depart overnight, leaving fog for some and cooler air tomorrow with highs only in the 50s east and 60s west with lots of clouds. After a fair and pleasant Thursday, Friday brings advancing rain from the south by late day into the night, likely to last with cool temperatures through Saturday before breaking up into showers Sunday, allowing temperatures to rebound a bit for the end of the weekend. Our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day puts temperatures in the 70s for the start of next week.