One last day of summer sun and warmth will deliver record high temperatures to parts of Northern New England before the remnant moisture of Florence arrives with torrential rain on Tuesday. Today’s sunshine couples with a southwest wind to bring summer redux once more, though increasing clouds in the afternoon and evening portend the changes ahead, formed by moisture riding well ahead of Florence’s remnant rainfall. Rain will start after midnight tonight, expanding during the morning commute, avoiding southeast Massachusetts most of the morning and midday and never quite reaching the North Country at all. For the rest of us, showers will turn to downpours, then downpours will turn to rain and embedded thunder as the day progresses, dropping exceptional rainfall rates that will produce localized flooding of streets and urban flooding, particularly during the afternoon as rainfall totals of two to four inches with locally higher amounts are expected. As rumbles of thunder move through, one or two thunderstorms may even turn damaging, as isolated tornadoes continue to develop in the remnant of Florence. By Tuesday night, rain will be departing, but a cool, moist flow of raw fall air will move in for Wednesday, locking in gray skies and chilly temperatures that will struggle to get much past 60°. Thursday should bring a return of some sun in a crisp air, with Thursday night showers marking the return of warmth by Friday. Right now, the weekend looks split with Saturday looking good, and Sunday not necessarily a washout, but quite possibly bringing some showers. High temperatures should drop to the 60s from Sunday into early next week in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
As the Merrimack Valley sees an mass influx of crews to contend with the recent natural gas explosions and efforts begin for residents to clean up this weekend, the good news is the weather will cooperate perfectly with dry conditions, quiet air and pleasant temperatures. Along the south facing coasts, a high surf advisory remains in effect today, owing to large waves from distant Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas – waves that are reaching 6 to 9 feet along our southern coast and 3 to 6 feet in the Gulf of Maine. For the rest of New England, this weekend serves up a treat that will be harder and harder to come by, let alone time perfectly on a weekend, as the fall season progresses: high temperatures either side of 80 and ample sun each day after pockets of morning clouds and fog burn off. The most stubborn morning cloud deck has been today, breaking up more significantly for a fair and pleasant afternoon – Saturday and Sunday morning clouds won’t be as widespread and will be quicker to burn off. All three days bring a light and variable wind trending toward a sea breeze at the coasts, and Monday should be an all-out summer redux with highs rebounding into the 80s far and wide under sun and increasing high altitude clouds. The increasing Monday clouds will be in advance of Hurricane Florence’s remnants – by then just a breezy rain storm – that will be marching northward and arrive to New England with rain Monday night through Tuesday, likely gone or at least diminished to only morning showers by Wednesday. Behind Florence’s remnants, cool fall air will ooze into New England again in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
While Florence comes ashore in the Carolinas, our weather here at home continues to improve from this point through the weekend. The showers, downpours and thunder of last night into early this morning have departed and the most we’ll see from this point forward in Southern New England will be isolated sprinkles beneath stubborn clouds while Northern New England enjoys fair sky and a quiet air. That same weather – fair and quiet – will gradually push into all of New England for the weekend. We’ll start with some partial clearing in Eastern Massachusetts late today and this evening, then find areas of clouds and fog filling back in overnight – no bother, the clouds and fog will break apart on Friday within a few hours of sunrise. Of course, with a light wind and ample moisture in the lower atmosphere, the clouds probably won’t entirely disappear on Friday, but we’ll at least enjoy a blend of clouds and sun with high temperatures in the 70s for most and near 80 in Northern New England. Saturday and Sunday only look better – highs around 80, ample sun and quiet weather through the weekend into Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, an approaching cold front may pick up some of the remnant moisture of Florence, who by that point will have dumped flooding rain across the Carolinas, Appalachians and Lower Ohio Valley, and that could deliver us some enhanced rainfall by the middle of next week. Thereafter, briefly cooler air moves in for the end of the week but we’re likely to dry out again in the Early Warning Weather exclusive 10-day forecast.
Overnight rain of one to two inches for much of New England came as the significantly weakened remnant of once-Tropical Storm Gordon moved through, and behind that rain, we’re finding breaks of sun, increasingly humid air and temperatures warming from those breaks of sun to near 80. A new shower or downpour will be possible during the day, particularly this evening, then scattered showers and downpours will redevelop for some communities overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. During the day Wednesday, expect any showers or embedded thunder to remain scattered through the day, though a likely absence of sun will mean slightly cooler temperatures than Tuesday. By Thursday, Major Hurricane Florence will be nearing the Carolinas with Tropical Storm Force wind impacting the Carolina coast by morning and landfall in North Carolina probable Thursday night, but here at home, drier air will slowly be moving in from Canada. In fact, we’re looking at what will be terrific weather heading into the weekend with highs in the 70s and no rain expected as New England remains north of Florence by a healthy margin, though large waves will emanate from the hurricane and impact our south-facing coasts. If any moisture is going to slide northward from the remnant of Florence to deliver enhanced rain to New England, it wouldn’t be until our next frontal system moves through during the early to middle part of next week in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.