The much advertised nor’easter number four may have delivered a slam dunk of snow from the nation’s capital to the City that never sleeps, but when it comes to New England, it was a shadow of what we expected it to be. The culprit for this forecast demise was an abundance of dry air – cited in our on-air forecasts the morning of the storm, our concern had been that dry air would cause wide variability in snowfall amounts…instead, that dry air absolutely dominated, eating away at much of the moisture as it tried streaming north into New England. Dry air evaporating the moisture meant a slower start to the snow…and a slower start to snow meant temperatures remained milder, further cutting accumulations when snow finally began. So, pockets of wet snow accumulate a coating to two inches over the course of Thursday morning with diminishing intensity and warming temperatures virtually negating most impact from late morning onward. The upcoming weekend will continue cool air for New England, with more clouds than sun Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and a disturbance followed by a northeast wind likely to deliver snow showers late Saturday through Saturday night, with flurries lingering Sunday. Though some warming is expected next week, it’ll likely happen later in the week.
Here we go...again. Today’s clouds give way to developing rain/snow from south to north, very slow to expand, midday to evening. With highs in the 30s, snow will melt quickly and easily on treated roads and interstates until after dark, when snowfall rates increase and the impact of very dim sun through clouds is lessened. A northeast wind will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph at the coast and over 50 mph on Cape Cod between 11 PM and 4 AM, causing only isolated or widely scattered power outages. When combined with a 3 AM high tide, the combination of high water and building waves offshore to 15-20’ will likely bring minor coastal flooding two hours either side of high tide, particularly in vulnerable South Shore locales. Bursts of heavier snow will occur overnight into early Thursday morning, likely resulting in snow covered and slick roads and some delays Thursday morning. Total snowfall is expected to be between half a foot and a foot in most of Southern New England, with localized variability owing to pockets of dry air aloft, and higher amounts in Connecticut. Lingering light snow will break apart to snow showers Thursday morning, leaving flurries and sprinkles with raw air for the rest of the day. A new disturbance aloft Friday will bring more clouds than sun, a chance of afternoon snow showers north and evening snow showers south. Saturday should be quieter for most of New England, but later Sunday into Sunday night we may be grazed by yet another storm passing close. We’re hopeful the moderating temperatures showing up next week in the 10-day forecast will hold!
After a chilly and dry Tuesday with highs only near 40 degrees and a wind chill in the 30s, temperatures drop to the 20s and teens overnight tonight as clouds gradually increase from south to north this afternoon through the overnight. At this point, looks like predawn start South Coast of New England, 7-9 AM Worcester, 9-11 AM Boston, 11-1 PM Merrimack Valley, but that may change with updated info later today - Snow start timing is heavily dependent upon the battle of existing dry air with the incoming moisture. Storm track is a HUGE factor with this one for two reasons - potential sharp decrease in amounts on north side and exact placement of narrow heaviest band. Tomorrow's New England nor'easter less intense version than its three predecessors, but will still bring Wednesday evening and night gusts to 50+ Cape Cod, 40+ Eastern MA coast for widely scattered outages. Seas churn 18-22' by Wednesday night, high tide ~3am, minor coastal flooding in the typically vulnerable areas of the South Shore. The storm pulls out Thursday predawn but flurries will linger in Eastern New England through the morning and midday along with chilly air. The weekend looks cool with clouds far outnumbering sun and a few periods of snow showers – overnight Friday night, then perhaps grazed by another storm Sunday evening or night. Next week only brings slow moderation in temperature.
Our weather in the coming days will be defined, first and foremost, by chilly air and a gusty wind. Highs each day, Friday into next week, will struggle to surpass the 30s, and winds gusting at times to 35 and 40 mph will mean daytime wind chill values in the teens and 20s. While New Englanders revert to the winter coat, hat and gloves, winter sports enthusiasts will revel in the new 3-5 feet of snow that’s fallen in Northern New England over the past week to 10 days, bringing some of the best conditions for skiing, boarding and snowmobiling, save for some possible lift holds due to gusty wind Friday and Saturday. Saturday morning brings a quick-moving disturbance that will enhance the chilly air and also will deliver some scattered snow squalls to Northern New England early Saturday and a late morning or midday snow shower or flurry to Southern New England. Thereafter, dry weather is expected to round out the weekend. Next week starts fairly quiet and chilly, but a larger storm approaches by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. This storm will be yet another one that reorganizes off the Eastern Seaboard, meaning the potential exists for yet another nor’easter. It’s still early and there’s plenty of time to work out the details, but our exclusive, in-house guidance continues to show greater than 50% chance the storm impacts New England Tuesday night through Wednesday, with some plowable snow possible, particularly in Southern New England. Suffice to say, we’ll be keeping a close eye on this one…though behind it, the weather should quiet in time for next weekend, when temperatures will at least reach the 40s – likely to be a welcome change after such a prolonged, cool March stretch.
Unique, Exclusive Weather Forecasts: Using Our Exclusive NBC10 Boston & NECN Forecast System to Examine Next Tuesday Storm Potential
What did the forecast you checked call for with regard to storm potential next Tuesday? If you didn't get the exact chance of the storm hitting and what areas will need to most closely watch the potential for accumulating snow, I hope you'll consider joining me and our NBC10 Boston team from 4 AM to 7 AM every weekday morning (simulcast on NECN), then live on NECN from 7 AM to 9 AM. Today, I showed details of the Tuesday storm no other broadcast meteorologist in New England can, because nobody else has built their own forecast guidance like we have. I aired the precise chance of a storm Tuesday into Wednesday and the area of greatest plowable snow potential. For decades we've heard forecasts for a storm several days out depends on track, how close the storm comes, how much moisture and the like. The line is old, you know it and it tells you little that is meaningful. On our Early Warning Weather Team we're changing the whole dynamic by generating quantifiable forecast potential. We did this several days ahead of the blizzard - we didn't know it'd be 20" from 5 days out, but instead of pondering if it would hit, we told our viewers a 60% chance of a hit with plowable snow. I hope you'll turn us on your TV every morning and let me take you into forecasting 2018-style, instead of comparing two possible solutions and telling you to check back later, or saying it's just too early and leaving it at that. It's time to expect more and better from your weather forecaster and I'm glad to be the one to deliver it to you!