MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS

Is Kyle a dud? Why I'm not too excited about him, even for Cape Cod or Eastern Maine

Well, here's the honest analysis:  Kyle has strengthened.  He's a hurricane and his thunderstorms near the center look better than ever, with infrared satellite imagery showing the coldest cloud tops of his lifetime.  There are signs of these thunderstorms wrapping around the northwestern periphery of the storm, and Tropical Storm Warnings (for sustained winds of 39 mph or greater) are up for Eastern Maine, as well as a Hurricane Watch (the possibility, though not imminent, of 74 mph winds or greater), with a Tropical Storm Watch up all the way south through Portland to Cape Elizabeth, on the Southern Maine coastline.  It's absolutely essential that folks prepare as directed by the National Weather Service.  I'll write it again - it's absolutely essential that folks in the warned area prepare for tropical storm force winds by securing vessels on the dock, taking in lightweight objects, and being prepared for some power outages.  Having said that, this meteorologist has serious doubts that we will get a single tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) gust in New England as Kyle passes by.  Here's why:

• Kyle has yet to develop convection (thunderstorms) on his west side.  This is usually necessary to bring strong winds down to the surface.
• There have been indications that the strengthening thunderstorm mass has been attempting to wrap around the north side of the circulation, but the storm's acceleration to the northeast keeps inhibiting this from happening
• Kyle is expected to continue accelerating northeast
• There is excellent agreement among the guidance that the storm will go just east of the National Hurricane Center track, passing just off the western coast of Nova Scotia (image is courtesy Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State Univ.  For more info, click here).
• Buoy and ship reports, as well as satellite estimated winds, on the west side of the storm show no sustained wind greater than 22 mph, though sustained winds to 45 mph are found due north of the circulation center
• The storm will soon move over waters cool enough to lead to weakening as a tropical system, meaning the storm will become "extratropical," or non-tropical
• In order to get symmetric winds - that is, strong winds on both the east and west side of the storm circulation - we either need to have a truly tropical cyclone (not going to happen over cool water and given the extratropical transition described above) or a quick and potent transition to a strong non-tropical cyclone that will spread wind away from the center.  Such a transition requires a strong, energetic disturbance in the jet stream to enhance the storm's transition
• We have no such strong disturbance aloft that will interact with Kyle
• This leaves us with a slowly decaying storm that will be undergoing a slow extratropical transition, given no upper level jet stream disturbance to hasten its transition
• There is nearly unanimous agreement among the intensity guidance (see image...same credit as the previous) that the result is a steadily weakening storm that is reduced to weak Tropical Storm or perhaps even Tropical Depression strength (sustained winds less than 39 mph) by the time it passes just west of Nova Scotia, and given the above factors I'd expect those winds to be on the east side of the storm

Put all of this together, and I'd be surprised to find ANY gusts (let alone sustained wind) to tropical storm force - 34 mph or greater - on land in New England.  The best chance may be at the buoy off the Downeast coast near Jonesport, at buoy #44027.

Is this wise to go against the National Hurricane Center's forecast?  Am I jeopardizing lives and property by saying this?  Well, keep in mind that I have the luxury of NOT being on the air this weekend - these are thoughts I can share with you between two weather-inclined folks.  The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are among the best in the world - true experts in the field - and that's why all folks in the warned area MUST make preparations.  Having said that, New England tropical cyclones are among the trickiest in the world, and Kyle is no exception to the rule.  Sunday we'll find out what reality brings.

Do you think I'm nuts?  Do you agree?  Add your thoughts in the comments section!

Matt

The story about why I don't forecast if Red Sox games will be played...

The Sox played at Fenway Park last night.  They waited through the rain, then played through the rain and between downpours.  The end result, unfortunately, was a Red Sox loss.

Friday morning, though, one of the "tosses" to me - when the anchors throw it over to me and get the weather conversation started - was based on the night's Sox game.  "It looks like there'll be rain around for the Red Sox game, Matt - think they'll play?"  My answer was very honest:  "There'll be periods of rain, so they'll be delayed if they do play, and the field will be wet, but the grounds crew always makes the decision on whether the Sox will actually play."  I went on to share with the anchors and our viewers the story of the day that solidified my decision on this forever...or at least for several years and counting!

I think I was working weekends at NECN at the time, but either way, the big Fenway Park home opener was set for the next day.  I went on the air and forecasted rain to move in the night before the daytime home opener, but explained that the rain should be gone by game time - ending within about an hour or two of the scheduled start - and the Sox would be able to open the season at home as they'd planned to do.  That night, the rains came.  The next morning I was back at it, with just hours before first-pitch.  The forecast appeared to be on-track, and I eagerly shared with my morning viewers that the forecast looked dead on - the rain was still expected to stop one to two hours prior to first pitch, and the Sox game would be played....

Click continue reading to read the rest of this post...

The nature of banded rainfall - a headache for forecasters...and for everyone else!

I didn't have much of a meteorological offering here today, as the discussion linked from the weather summary link at the top of this page (the discussion that appears on the NECN blog) was a 10 minute video discussion, which pretty much covered all of my thoughts on the situation for this weekend.

One theme was banding of precipitation through the weekend - rainfall that comes and goes, but falls heavily when it comes down.  Of course, the intensity is a result of the tropically loading airmass with a persistent southeast wind and the deep tropical tap.  The banding comes as the composition of the atmosphere changes on a horizontal plane - that is, we began the evolution with cool and dry air in place.  Advecting (moving) a warm and moist airmass in from the tropics and off of the Atlantic resulted in a clash of airmasses over New England, and this clash resulted in a shield of rain that was solid and persistent.  With time, a series of frontal boundaries became laid out across New England at varying altitudes.  The surface front has been draped across Southern New England, while the front at 925 mb and 850 mb has lifted farther north, and this results in multiple areas of temperature differences from south to north, or more accurately, from southeast to northwest.

Though a northeast wind persists at the surface, north of the surface front, a southeast and southerly flow is taking hold a few thousand feet off of the ground.  Of course, with a tap to tropical moisture, these southerly winds are carrying increasingly warm and humid air into New England.  Not only is this warm and humid air naturally buoyant (remember, warm and moist air rises!), but as it encounters the frontal boundaries at various locations and altitudes across New England, that warm and moist air is forced upward, causing enhanced clouds and therefore enhanced bands of rainfall.  This phenomenon, coupled with repetitive surges of increased warmth and moisture, results in the banded nature of precipitation.

This can be a frustrating proposition for forecasters and for everyone else.  For forecasters, the frustration comes because our bread and butter is accurately telling folks where and when rain will fall, and for how long.  We simply can't do that accurately in a complex, varied and constantly evolving atmosphere like the one described here.  We occasionally see such a setup in a winter storm, resulting in heavier snow bands, but even in those situations, though it's tricky, it's a bit more maneuverable because cold air is heavy and dense, and therefore, everything moves slower.  With warm season airmasses, there's a great deal more liquidity to the airmass, which means the target to hit is moving much faster.

The result?  "Periods of rain, heavy at times."  As we get closer to the event, we can start to nail down the time and duration of breaks in the action, but even such "breaks" are more accurately lulls, as so much tropical moisture can easily breed convective showers and thunder even in between better defined bands.  Of course, this is equally frustrating for folks who rely on the forecasts!  In such circumstances, I'm often very honest with my viewers that trust in the forecast should be minimal outside of 24 hours, increased within that 24 hour window, further increased inside of 12 hours, and reliable within about 6-8 hours.  Though that's not often the case - that such short-term solutions are necessary - when a tropically loaded atmosphere with a number of frontal boundaries exists, the scenario becomes far more volatile.

Matt

Kyle is born...what happens next?

Kyle looks rather sad with his lopsided convection, but the thunderstorms east of the center are build well with cold cloud tops.  The shear north of the storm has been up to 50 knots - extremely strong shear that would tear any storm to pieces - but has been decreasing dramatically in the last few hours and should remain low to moderate in the next two days.  There is decent agreement among the hurricane guidance products on intensifying the storm to minimal hurricane strength at 48 hours (Saturday morning) with a Sunday AM passage over the Eastern Gulf of Maine.

There are some new questions that come to mind and must be answered in the next 12 to 18 hours.

1. Will the storm move as slowly as forecasted, or will it sling quickly north in the developing southerly flow?
2. Will this same southerly flow tear the top off the storm and effectively leave the surface circulation behind while the tropical moisture surges northward?
3. Will the warm front backing in from the ocean across New England, then stalling, serve as a boundary to focus more heavy rainfall than was initially expected, making it last longer through Saturday and into Sunday, or is the front too far removed from the storm to have this effect?
4. Will Kyle perform much like a poleward moving tropical cyclone and have a distinct separation of wind to the south and east of the track, and heaviest rain west, or will the combination of the frontal boundary and the increasing pressure gradient ahead of the high building over Southern Canada increase wind on the west side of the storm circulation?
5. How will the lack of convection on the west side play out in the life and longevity of the storm?
6. Will the rather ominous ECMWF (pictured below) verify?  It certainly is west of the hurricane track guidance, but is disconcerting to consider as a possible solution.

For me, I need some rest and will re-examine these questions in the morning (getting up at 2 AM will do that to a guy!).  But, if you have thoughts you'd like me to read when I sit down to analyze everything in the early AM, feel free to leave them in the comments section of this post!  In the meantime, check out tropical analysis and forecasting links on the Tropical Page of NationalWeatherOnline.com.

Matt

Mount Washington Valley Fall Foliage Report, September 25, 2008

We’re about 50% of the way there!

 

Leaf scouters in Mt Washington Valley tell us the foliage color is about 50 percent of the way to peaking, with color changes accelerating daily spurred by cooler nights. Photos taken recently capture the color in both the Northern notches and the southern part of the Valley. If these photos represent 50 percent of the color, imagine what’s to come! It is said that New Hampshire and parts of Japan are the only two places on earth where the combination of climate, landscape and the variety of trees allows such a great show of colors. In past years, summer droughts and warm autumn temps contributed to less color. Not this year! This is the year to make the trip to Mt Washington Valley where spectacular color already awaits and gets better each day.

 

While a rainy weekend is in the forecast according to the Mount Washington Observatory, clear blue skies and leaf-peeping weather will return next week as a Canadian high pressure builds back in Mt Washington Valley, NH. 

 

Don’t miss the kick-off of the Fryeburg Fair, Maine’s Blue Ribbon Fair, starting this weekend and the Fall Festival at Settler’s Green on Saturday, including dozens of handmade scarecrows on display, horse drawn wagon rides and pumpkin carving demonstrations.

Photos:

Foliage looking over Lake Chocorua at Mt Chocoura, taken 9-24-08 by Jesse Mosston

Foliage over Wildcat, taken 9-24-08 by Tom Caughey, General Manager, Wildcat Mountain. 

Harvest Days in New Hampshire!

10/4 Harvest Day Festival at Canterbury Shaker Village. 10 am. $15, children 6-17 $7, children under 6, free. Pumpkin picking express, hay maze, children's activities, ham and bean supper with barn dance. 603-783-9077, www.shakers.org

 

10/4 Harvest Day at Strawbery Banke Museum in Portsmouth. www.strawberybanke.org

 

10/4-5 Zorvino Vineyards Fall Harvest Festival 11am 4 pm Free. Local NH Made vendors and artisan demonstrations, Zorvino Food & Wine including wine making demonstrations with Ken Evers, pumpkin decorating for the kids, a petting zoo, hay rides, bocce games and live music. 603-887-8463, www.zorvino.com

 

10/4 Blessing of the Animals and NHPleinAir Paint Out & Wet Sale in Tamworth. 10 am - 4 pm at the Remick Museum. 603-323-7591, www.remickmuseum.org

10/4 Chili Cook-Off and Fall Festival & 5K Road Race in Claremont.

10/5 "Lively Boys! Lively Boys!"  at the Discover Portsmouth Center in Portsmouth. 2 pm $10. Part of the "Sunday Salon Series." Popular Seacoast historian, J. Dennis Robinson, examines the "bad boy" literary genre that began in Portsmouth  and sparked the later work of Mark Twain. "Story of a Bad Boy" author TB Aldrich attended school at what is now the Discover Portsmouth Center and his novel, THE STORY OF A BAD BOY stil lives today in Dennis the Menace and Bart Simpson.  This fast-paced slideshow reveals much about Portsmouth's past on the 100th anniversary of the Aldrich House museum. 

For more events, packages and itineraries, www.VisitNH.gov

Vermont study to examine climate change and potential effects on fall foliage

Click here to link to the Proctor Maple Research Center in Underhill, VT, conducting the study described in this article.

Colorful study probes climate change, fall foliage from Associated Press

A shell game in the tropics...attention shifts to the Carolina coastline

With one much-talked about but lackluster tropical wave failing to produce, a creepy Carolina creature crawls coastward...

Click "continue reading" below to read the entire post.

Join me...and the Patriots Cheerleaders (!) at the American Liver Foundation Liver Life Walk in Boston this Sunday

Though rain is in the forecast for Friday and part of Saturday, improving weather is expected for the second half of the weekend with some sun returning and temperatures in the 70s!  Add to that a Patriots bye-week, and there's little reason NOT to take a stroll in the name of liver health!

This Sunday morning, September 28, I'll be the Master of Ceremonies for the American Liver Foundation's Liver Life Walk on Day Boulevard in Boston, across from Moakley Park.  Of course, if a great cause, a great walk, and...if I may say so...a great M.C. aren't reasons enough, I should let you know the New England Patriots Cheerleaders will be signing autographs before participants travel the scenic route around Castle Island!!  After the walk, you'll be able to kick back and enjoy some post-walk refreshments, too.

So bring your camera - no, not just to take pictures of the Pats Cheerleaders...but also because the views around Castle Island are fantastic!  Over 1,000 supporters, patients and family members will be participating to help the one in ten Americans with liver disease.  Liver cancer is the fastest growing type of cancer, and over 15,000 children nationwide are hospitalized every year with pediatric liver disease.  This is our chance to make a positive difference together, and is a great time for kids and adults, alike!

So, the details are as follows:

• Sunday, September 28, 2008...Registration begins at 9 AM, walk kicks off at 10 AM
• Location is Day Boulevard, across from Moakley Park, South Boston, MA
• New England Patriots Cheerleaders signing autographs, KISS 108 and JAM'N 94.5 providing music, great giveaways and contests
• To walk, or support the cause, visit http://liverfoundation.org/walk/
• Looking for directions or other information specific to this walk?  Click here.
• Have a few questions?  Call Laura at 617-527-5600.

A forecasting conundrum with the tropical wave

An intriguing scenario becomes even more intriguing, it seems.  It's one thing to be a week out, watching a tropical wave and seeing guidance forecasts for the disturbance to ramp up and head to New England.  It gets a bit stale when you're still doing the same thing on Tuesday, and the timeframe in question is Friday night or early Saturday.  I'm aware that I've been significantly downplaying this system contrasted with at least a few other media outlets - no mention of potential wind or rainfall amounts in my forecasts yet - but, let's look at this realistically...