MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS

The FAA and its Forecast for Flight

The past couple of weeks, my forecast discussions have been quite rare.  I mentioned in a recent post that I was busy working on an in-depth report, and on Tuesday, March 17, 2009, my "Cover Story" aired in the NECN News at 9, and would rebroadcast during the news the following day. This six minute report focuses on a recent request by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to consolidate meteorologists from the Air Route Traffic Control Centers - 20 across the contiguous United States - to two national centers that would conduct weather analysis and forecasting for the entire National Air Space (NAS). This idea has raised substantial concerns among pilots, air traffic controllers, and meteorologists, but the FAA focuses upon the money saved for the taxpayer, and the utilization of new technology that may limit the number of meteorologists required, and their proximity to the forecast area. Though the Cover Story can be viewed here, there is a plethora of information I've garnered through this report, and far more than could be fit even in a six-minute report. For those of you who are interested, I encourage you to read the entirety of what I've discovered here - a compilation of interviews, both on the record and off, with multiple pilots, air traffic controllers, meteorologists and FAA personnel, that all help to paint a complex picture of what's at work in the FAA and the Forecast for Flight.

Interesting thoughts on the month of March thus far

I received the following email from a viewer (names have been omitted to protect the innocent!) and started thinking about how this winter has defined our sense of "normal."  When you're slammed time and again with cold and snow, below normal temperatures in March suddenly seem like they're mild and wonderful.  I checked on the numbers so far this month to provide some perspective.  Here's the email and my reply:

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Long range forcast
To: contact@mattnoyes.net

Matt: What happened to your long range forecast a couple of days ago, predicting colder than normal temps and more snow than normal for the last half of March?  Ah, the danger of the long range forecast!!

 

XXXXX

My reply:

Hi XXXXX,

Good to hear from you and thanks for keeping me honest!  A few things:

1) The second half of March hasn't arrived yet, so neither you nor I should count our chickens or throw our stones before the month is out!

2) Thus far, just taking Boston as an example, we are 1.8 degrees below normal for the month.  We've had warm days, but also far colder than normal days.  Keep in mind that "normal" is constantly rising, and rising fast, this time of the year, so below or much below normal can be highs in the 30s.  Yesterday's high in Boston was 31 - MUCH below normal for the date, but felt good compared to the winter.

3) Thus far in March, through the 13th, Boston has received 10.7 inches of snow.  The normal for the ENTIRE MONTH is 8.3 inches, so we've already exceeded that.  The normal for the second half of the month is only about 2.5", so if we receive more than 2.5" of snow in the second half of March, the forecast will verify.

4) Keep in mind - 1) The way I explain it is that the pattern looks favorable for certain conditions.  I rarely, if ever, give a definitive answer on long range forecasts...not because I'm chicken, but because I am aware of the statistical spread that far out.

I hope all of this helps to add some credibility for you.  Feel free, however, to resend your email on the last day of March!  I have signals that after a warmup, we'll go back to colder than normal temperatures starting somewhere around the 19th, and lasting - with perhaps only a day or two of exceptions - through the end of March.

Matt

Where have all the weather posts gone?

With no recent posts, I wouldn't blame you for thinking I've thrown in the towel - not the case at all! I appreciate all of you who check in, and normally I would at least have a "Ride Home" video blog out here, but this week has been exceptional.  Sadly, our Black Lab, Bentley, was diagnosed with an inoperable, aggressive tumor at the start of this week.  I have to admit that in addition to the time spent dealing with the situation and determining a course from here, it has been a substantial emotional and mental drain.  Coupled with a big report I've been working on behind the scenes here at NECN - which should air on NECN and be posted here next week - I've been sleeping from about 11 PM to 2 AM each night, then doing it all over again.  The other pages on this site - including the Quick Forecast and Sky Scenes - have continued to be updated.

I continue to update via Twitter, and you can follow me by clicking here.  Of course, forecast discussions will resume soon - I expect to get a Ride Home out again early next week.  So...that means I'll see you back here with more weather within the next couple of days.

Live Streaming Again for more Monday snow...

We're at it again! Another day of live streaming, another winter storm, and - as if by some cruel twist of fate - another day of Matt flying solo...so please be patient with chat responses and the like!

Is a "gravity wave" destined to bring 4" per hour snow, locally damaging wind and potential thundersnow Monday morning?

This is an expansion on a general post on gravity waves that I posted on WeatherNewEngland.com earlier today.  The original post is in italics.  The new stuff for real weather buffs appears below it.  Also, I first mentioned this on Twitter earlier today.  Follow me on Twitter by clicking here.

As a major winter storm bears down on New England - the most significant snow of the season for most of Southern New England - there are contemplations and concerns this evening of a potential "gravity wave" traversing New England on Monday morning.  What is a gravity wave?  These waves can occasionally bring extremely heavy precipitation (snowfall rates of 3"-4"+ per hour), briefly damaging wind gusts that also create blizzard conditions, thundersnow, and some funky readings on the barometer with a fast and pronounced rise and then fall in pressure.  As amazing and impactful as these events can be, they are also very tough to accurately predict...

Live stream from NECN Weather Center begins overnight tonight/early Monday AM

With the big storm on the way, plans are in their final stages for in-depth storm coverage Monday morning on NECN.  This includes, of course, multimedia coverage, which will include live streaming video with the ability to chat with me during the storm.  The plan right now is for me to personally enable this feed when I get into work in the middle of the night tonight, and continue streaming from the weather center and live radar data all through the day tomorrow.  If I find myself technologically impaired and unable to get the stream started, it'll be up by 6 AM, but barring a password protection issue, I expect to have no trouble firing it up around 2 AM Sunday night and getting ramped up for a mega-morning.  When the feed is enabled, it will appear both here on the MattNoyes.net In-Depth Weather Page, and of course on our NECN Team Weather Blog at WeatherNewEngland.com.

A closer inspection of the forecasted heavy snow band in Southern New England

Here's something I use behind the scenes as a reference, among many other sources, but thought you'd enjoy seeing.  This is the precipitation forecast from the State University of New York at Stony Brook Mesoscale Model Version 5.  SUNY Stony Brook has a great meteorology program, and for years has been maintaining - and improving - their regional forecast product.  In this image, precipitation is forecasted in MELTED amounts - that is, "liquid equivalent."  In meteorology, we forecast liquid amount first, then convert to snowfall based upon expected ratios.  If we see a 12 to 1 ratio of snow to water in Worcester (about the ratio I'm expecting there), the 1.42" of liquid equivalent would amount to 17" of snow.  Notice that band runs from just east of Hartford to Worcester, and adds credence to my discussion earlier (posted below) that folks in these regions may near a foot and a half.

Largest snowstorm of the season en route to Southern New England...

This Sunday post is a follow-up to yesterday's full description of what was expected.

The storm that's unfolding for New England will likely be the snowstorm of greatest impact thus far this season - in a season already riddled with winter storms.  Of course, "snowstorm" excludes the major December ICE storm, whose impact clearly was the largest in quite some time.  With regard to travel and commerce, however, Monday's storm will be a high-impact event as it sweeps up the Interstate 95 corridor, bringing a fierce winter storm Sunday night into Monday for most of the Atlantic Seaboard.

Upon analyzing the latest forecast data...