Interesting thoughts on the month of March thus far

I received the following email from a viewer (names have been omitted to protect the innocent!) and started thinking about how this winter has defined our sense of "normal."  When you're slammed time and again with cold and snow, below normal temperatures in March suddenly seem like they're mild and wonderful.  I checked on the numbers so far this month to provide some perspective.  Here's the email and my reply:

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Long range forcast
To: contact@mattnoyes.net

Matt: What happened to your long range forecast a couple of days ago, predicting colder than normal temps and more snow than normal for the last half of March?  Ah, the danger of the long range forecast!!

 

XXXXX

My reply:

Hi XXXXX,

Good to hear from you and thanks for keeping me honest!  A few things:

1) The second half of March hasn't arrived yet, so neither you nor I should count our chickens or throw our stones before the month is out!

2) Thus far, just taking Boston as an example, we are 1.8 degrees below normal for the month.  We've had warm days, but also far colder than normal days.  Keep in mind that "normal" is constantly rising, and rising fast, this time of the year, so below or much below normal can be highs in the 30s.  Yesterday's high in Boston was 31 - MUCH below normal for the date, but felt good compared to the winter.

3) Thus far in March, through the 13th, Boston has received 10.7 inches of snow.  The normal for the ENTIRE MONTH is 8.3 inches, so we've already exceeded that.  The normal for the second half of the month is only about 2.5", so if we receive more than 2.5" of snow in the second half of March, the forecast will verify.

4) Keep in mind - 1) The way I explain it is that the pattern looks favorable for certain conditions.  I rarely, if ever, give a definitive answer on long range forecasts...not because I'm chicken, but because I am aware of the statistical spread that far out.

I hope all of this helps to add some credibility for you.  Feel free, however, to resend your email on the last day of March!  I have signals that after a warmup, we'll go back to colder than normal temperatures starting somewhere around the 19th, and lasting - with perhaps only a day or two of exceptions - through the end of March.

Matt