MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS

Wind to take center-stage on Halloween...isolated damage likely

A major storm has been affecting the Central United States, complete with flooding rain, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and heavy snow. After nearly four feet of snow in the Eastern Rockies, and flash flooding from the Mississippi River Valley to the Midwest, most of the energy and moisture associated with this storm will be pulling into Canada, where it will take up residence over Hudson Bay for the weekend. This storm is so large in scope, however, that its core of strong wind will expand east, arriving to New England on Halloween, and delivering a round of potentially damaging wind gusts regionwide. Friday clouds spilled out of New York State and became "stuck" in New England as an "inversion" developed aloft. As it's name would imply, an inversion is when the atmosphere is...inverted...or, backwards from what you'd expect. Normally, we find temperatures getting colder the higher up one goes into the sky. Occasionally, warmer air can stream in aloft, and that's what's happened on Friday - temperatures rising nearly 8-10 degrees over a very short span at an altitude of about 7000 feet. An inversion is often also referred to as a "cap," because it effectively cuts off the lower atmosphere from air higher up. On a day like Friday, with low-altitude clouds beneath the cap, it's very difficult to stir up these clouds, which is why we expect stubborn white or gray skies to linger for much of the day, especially through the interior. Where the wind can become more active - especially south of the Massachusetts Turnpike, some breaks of sun are more likely to occur. This also should be the case on the north side of our mountains, where the strengthening south and southeast wind Friday afternoon slopes down the mountainsides. Although the stubborn clouds will start to break later Friday into Friday night, new clouds will move in as winds remain active, making for a relatively mild night. By Saturday, the core of strong winds expanding from the Central U.S. storm will arrive, with 60-70 mph sustained winds just a few thousand feet off of the ground. As New England warms on Saturday - coming into the 60s in most spots - the "cap" on the atmosphere will be broken, allowing air from aloft...and therefore, wind from aloft...to mix down toward the ground. It's for this reason we expect gusts that will exceed 50 mph - and perhaps in a few communities hit 60 mph - causing lightweight objects (and Halloween decorations) to blow around, as well as perhaps resulting in some isolated power outages. Rain with the approaching cold front from the west will be rather limited, but should feature a band of showers pushing into Northern and Western New England from late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon, and arriving to Central and Southern New England Saturday evening and night. This will mean some showers for trick-or-treaters, especially northwest of Springfield, MA, Fitchburg, MA, Portland, ME and Bangor, ME. Elsewhere, scattered light showers or sprinkles are possible anytime Saturday, but southern and eastern areas will see the steadier showers overnight Saturday night. Sunday, drier air moves into New England for sunshine...though remember to set those clocks back an hour overnight Saturday night (and change the smoke detector batteries), meaning the sun sets an hour earlier on Sunday evening. Alas, the march to winter continues. Matt

With high pressure muscling south, sunshine returns

While Central New England recorded over one inch of rain on Wednesday, skies were clear far to the north, across the mouth of the St. Lawrence River in Eastern Canada.  These clear skies came beneath an area of cool high pressure - sinking air unfavorable for cloud development and growth.  As yesterday's storm moves southeast away from New England, the fair weather cell from Canada will settle south to take its place, ushering drier and cooler air into New England.  Thursday morning saw the start of this process, with ceiling heights rising as dry air undercut the cloud deck that was present, eventually giving way to breaks of sunshine as the clouds evaporated in the abundant dry air moving in.  For Southeastern MA and Rhode Island, the process often is more sluggish, since a northeast wind comes in directly off of the ocean, which tends to offset any dry air push.  Still, most southeastern New England communities will find at least a few breaks of sun by the time Thursday is done.

With the axis of high pressure drifting overhead Thursday night, skies will become partly cloudy, and a nearly calm wind will allow valley and coastal fog to develop by early Friday morning.  Abundant sunshine will burn any fog and resultant low-altitude clouds off early on Friday, yielding to warming temperatures as a developing wind from the south aids in transporting milder air northward.  This feed of mild air will only just be getting started, as the eventual squeeze between departing high pressure and a deep storm over the Great Lakes will help to really squeeze the southerly and southwest wind, cranking gusts to 50 mph in a few communities on Saturday, and that fast south wind will carry in enough warm air to push temperatures well into the 60s, even as clouds increase.  Of course, those clouds will be riding out ahead of the aforementioned storm - chock full of energy and the same system that dumped over three feet of snow on the mountains of Colorado Wednesday, and prompted tornado watches in Northeast Texas early Thursday.

Though the bulk of that storm will ride into Canada, a trailing cold front will approach New England from the west on Saturday, and will tap the Gulf of Mexico for moisture.  Though the timing that far out still is subject to some amendment, my best estimate is that this approaching front will result in a band of showers entering Northern and Western New England Saturday morning, becoming a steady rain for you by afternoon.  In Central, Eastern and most of Southern New England, you'll probably stay dry most of the day until scattered showers start developing from west to east late in the afternoon and toward evening, but I'm hoping these remain scattered for trick-or-treat time, becoming steadier rain not long after, and continuing through the overnight.  Sunday may dawn with clouds and lingering showers, but should feature a bubble of high pressure over the Tennessee Valley nudging the cold front offshore, ushering in drier air that will bring gradual clearing for a pleasant but somewhat cool Sunday afternoon.

Cool air is expected to gradually build in and be reinforced across New England next week.  Any snow in sight?  A strong, energetic disturbance at the jet stream level will dive over New England later next week - I have questions as to how much moisture will be available for this disturbance, but at least some of New England may find solid precipitation before the week is out.  I'll keep you posted.  -Matt

Watch out world...I've figured out how to loop my video forecast discussions, 24/7!

OK, so this is just Day One - actually, hour one - since I've figured this out, but I've discovered how to create a repeating loop of video on the Northeast Weather Analysis Page of MattNoyes.net.  This opens the door for a whole new dimension to the site.

Those of you who have religiously followed my page over the last several years know that for many years I issued daily technical discussions in which I tried to leave no stone unturned.  I was so flattered and thrilled with the number of folks who found the in-depth technical forecast discussions enlightening and educational.  It's been a blessing that my career continues to grow and my life to expand, but that also has meant more limited time to be able to sit and compose full technical discussions.  Recently, I introduced the LiveStream component to my site, where you can find me streaming most mornings that I'm working.  Today, I took the time to sit down and figure out how to record and re-air a video segment.

It's my hope that this opens the door for me to bring back more technical weather analysis through this feature, but this time, enhanced with imagery!   This will be WAY quicker for me than writing long entries each day, and hopefully will be equally if not more effective for you, the user of my site, by seeing maps while hearing description of factors I'm taking into account.

I hope you're half as excited as I am about this - here are a couple of basics for you:

1) You can minimize the little advertisement banner at the bottom of the video to see my New England forecast scrolling in the ticker at the bottom of the window.

2) You can click the little speaker icon to mute the video, because I'm sure you'll get sick of hearing me after you've listened...especially after a few times!

3) There is an On-Demand button you can click on to peruse recent videos that are no longer playing.

4) The Chat feature will always remain active - please use it as a forum for weather!  I've always wanted this site to be about YOU, not ME.  Because of the nature of the business, there are some things about me that folks expect to see here, but I very much would like you to chat in this window even when I'm not around.  Talk about the weather, ponder the forecast, let each other know the weather observation where you are, or leave me questions for the next time I log on.  Just please...keep it about the weather!  :)

Thanks for all of your support - and I'm excited to find you here in some way, shape or form, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week!!!

Best,

Matt

Plenty of rain for many Wednesday...brighter skies end the week

A strong, energetic upper level disturbance produced copious amounts of rainfall along the Gulf of Mexico coastline yesterday, then streamed north across the Tennessee River Valley, carrying a swath of rain with it.  Though the deep moisture tap from the Gulf of Mexico has been diminished substantially since yesterday, the pocket of moisture associated with the disturbance aloft has survived the trip, and will produce rain across the Northeastern U.S. most of Wednesday.  In fact, while morning rain began the day, the passage of the energy center aloft will actually bring the heaviest rain for New Englanders on Wednesday afternoon, and during the evening commute.  High pressure centered over Eastern Canada is bringing clear skies to the St. Lawrence River Valley, and this clearing will muscle southward overnight Wednesday night, allowing for some sunshine on Thursday, though the combination of lingering moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, a flow off the ocean on Cape Cod and the South Shore of MA, and cool air spilling in aloft, will all contribute to bubbling clouds that will mix with and blot out the sun, especially from late morning onward.  By Friday, sunshine should be abundant as the center of high pressure drifts just east of New England, allowing for a southerly wind to bring warmer air into New England...and that flow of warm air will continue into Halloween, with an increasing wind on Saturday.  That wind will also bring increasing moisture in advance of an approaching cold front, which will likely instigate some showers, especially later Saturday.  While that's toward trick-or-treat time, there is still some uncertainty here - a large chunk of Gulf of Mexico moisture will stream north, and the question is whether this moisture links up with the front in part or whole, and sooner versus later.  An earlier merger would mean enhanced rainfall Saturday afternoon through night.  A later merger would mean enhanced rain Saturday night into very early Sunday.  Remaining a separate entity would mean scattered showers later Saturday, but more meaningful rain holding off until Sunday.  Right now, I'm thinking reality will come closest to a partial merger later Saturday night into early Sunday, meaning scattered showers on Halloween evening, but not a steady rain.  It's early, though, and details should become much clearer in the next day or two.  Regardless, cool air comes streaming into New England next week, and a shot of snow for some seems possible if not likely around Wednesday or Thursday.  I'll keep you posted!  -Matt

Rain showers charge into New England on Tuesday, Wednesday; Better end to the week

I woke up early this morning, took one look at the radar, and realized New England was going to to be wetter than I'd hoped Tuesday afternoon.  When I made the forecast yesterday, with a storm center moving so far to our south, it made sense to keep the steadiest and heaviest rainfall south of us, with just a few showers lifting into Connecticut.  That forecast reasoning would prove incorrect, as a chunk of tropical moisture grabbed by the jet stream winds aloft was streaming northeast across Pennsylvania pre-dawn, and the trajectory made it clear that most of Southern New England would find at least a few showers by the time Tuesday is done.  

Quiet weather prevails...amidst an active Eastern weather map!

It's pretty remarkable how quiet our weather is forecast to be over the coming days, considering all the action that's happening around New England.  For instance, a storm is just gathering strength this morning off the coast of the Carolinas and will tap Atlantic Gulf Stream moisture as it strengthens while pulling north.  The expanding rain shield associated with the storm, will spin northwest from the storm center, depositing rainfall all the way north into New Jersey by late Tuesday.  Meanwhile, a well-established flow of tropical moisture is evident on satellite imagery, streaming northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico.  This moisture has carried clouds across most of the Southeastern United States, and will fuel shower and thunderstorm development there later today.  Farther west, heavy rain and thunderstorms have been blossoming across Eastern Texas, extending north through Arkansas, and bridged with a northern stream disturbance over the Upper Great Lakes by a band of occasional showers and rain.  That northern disturbance will move toward New England, and may bring a sprinkle or light shower to the Canadian border late Tuesday, as the Atlantic coastal storm moving north may bring a sprinkle to the South Coast of Connecticut at the same time.  Both of these disturbances, however, will largely miss New England.  This comes courtesy not of the high pressure dome in charge Monday morning (which will be weakening through Tuesday), but rather of another cell of high pressure - cool and dry Canadian air - settling south out of Quebec and toward Northern Maine.

There will be a few effects of this high pressure dome - first, it will squash most disturbances heading for New England; second, the clockwise flow of wind around the fair weather center will mean an east wind develops on Tuesday for most locales, flowing in off of the ocean.  This will result in an increase in moisture through the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere, which is likely to produce increasing clouds later Tuesday, but no precipitation is expected from these clouds.  Perhaps the strongest and most defined disturbance to move through the Northeast will be the heavy rain producer in Texas today.  Caught in the jet stream winds aloft, this disturbance will race overhead on Wednesday, but as it encounters the dry Canadian air, the rain shield is likely to diminish markedly, producing only scattered, relatively light rain showers on Wednesday.  Thursday may still feature some clouds with a flow of air off of the ocean, but drier air will move back in to end the week on a mild and enjoyable note on Friday.  Showers are possible by Saturday - last week I was thinking a blast of very chilly air would arrive for Halloween, but the trend is to delay that 24-36 hours, which would keep relatively mild air in place until the end of the weekend.  I'll keep close tabs on that, but regardless, I can tell you that much deeper cold air is en route for next week.  So enjoy the relative warmth while it's here!

Heavy rain, strong wind expected Saturday...Sunday to be a great fall day

The storm moving into New England this weekend has quite a history.  The pieces that have converged over the last several days to create our incoming rainstorm are varied, but all impressive - strong Canadian energy that barreled into the Rocky Mountains tapped Pacific moisture, then absorbed Tropical Storm Rick after he made landfall in Mexico's west coast.  Rick previously had been a Category 5 Hurricane, and came with lots of moisture and tropical energy that was absorbed by the developing Central U.S. storm.  Thursday and Friday, the storm circulation tapped the Gulf of Mexico for deep tropical moisture, featuring blossoming thunderstorms moving north from the Gulf and through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.  Now, additional tropical moisture from the Bahamas will gradually feed up the East Coast, and a developing south wind will capitalize on Atlantic moisture, as well.  The strengthening south wind will thrust not only moisture but deep warmth northward, and when this warmth encounters the cool and dry airmass that dominated New England on Friday, the result will be rapidly rising air, resulting in deep cloud development for banded heavy rainfall.  The key to the forecast is nailing down these bands of rain - both timing, location and intensity.  The premise of my forecast today was to acknowledge the excellent job the guidance did in forecasting large quantities of precipitation, and that is reflected in my forecast of 3"-4" of rainfall in the heaviest band.  I also felt, however, that the guidance was likely leaning too far north with the location of the band in the products that were available early this morning, so I shifted the axis of heavy rain southward.  I did this because, while a typical fall/winter/spring system would feature banded precipitation producing heaviest amounts well into the cool air, that is not the case with tropical air - especially mostly virgin tropical air.  Therefore, this is not like a winter storm scenario and will not produce heaviest precipitation along the front 2000-6000 feet up in the sky, but rather along the surface front, which should be from Southern VT to Southern NH and Southern ME when the greatest cloud production occurs.  Therefore, shifting the band of heaviest rain along and just north of this surface front seemed most prudent.  The late morning computer guidance is just coming in, and shifting southward, backing up this thought-process.

Of course, a Patriots forecast for London is included, as well.  :)

A summary & webcam tour of some CRAZY New England weather variations!!

On what was already an amazing day of variance in New England weather - a swing from 75 in Oxford, Connecticut, to 30 degrees in many Northern Maine locales, as of late Thursday afternoon - we've also seen a tremendous difference in conditions.  I grabbed some webcam images from a few examples like...

Newtown, CT - brilliant sunshine and a high of 75 degrees.

Portsmouth, NH - gray, overcast skies and a high of 56 degrees.

Fort Kent, ME - a half foot of snow expected and an afternoon temperature of 30 degrees.  

As if this swing weren't enough, and the contrast of sunshine vs. snowstorm isn't the icing on the cake...how about the tremendous difference in conditions between nearby towns!

Here are some amazing contrasts to consider from this afternoon's weather - all readings are from late Thursday afternoon:

North end of Lake Champlain (by St. Albans, VT): 35 degrees.

South end of Lake Champlain (Burlington, VT): 44 degrees.

Nahhh...not good enough.  Let's keep looking.

Jamaica Plain, 59 degrees . Norwood, 73 degrees.  Distance: 8 miles.  That's 1.75 degrees per mile.

Boston, 53.  Blue Hill Observatory, 73.  2.22 degrees per mile.

Fitchburg, 73.  Manchester, NH, 57.  Not bad over 25 miles.

But the winner is...

Quincy, MA, 58.  South Braintree, MA, 71.  13 degree change.  That's 3.71 degrees per mile, or just under 1 degree per quarter mile.  In other words, running a football field will result in a .21 degree temperature change!!!

Amazing stuff.  Did I forecast it correctly?  Not for everyone, no way!  But 20 degree temperature changes over 10 miles take mostly luck...  ;)

Matt

A 40 degree temperature difference across New England today...at least!

Please see yesterday's discussion to accompany this video!

An amazing contrast sets up for Thursday - plowable snow far north, around 70 south

The next 36 hours will be yet another in the many examples of why I often feel like one of the luckiest meteorologists in the world.  Not only am I forecasting in New England - a mecca for weather and the point of confluence for so many varied weather systems - but at NECN, a still-expanding and strengthening media outlet of nearly 4 million households, I have the true privilege of forecasting for ALL of New England.  Any meteorologist worth his weight knows that to forecast from the northern tip of Maine to the southern tip of Connecticut is one of the most challenging, exciting and rewarding opportunities I could ask for.  Thursday will be a day to rise up to that challenge and soak up the pure wonder of accumulating and likely plowable snow in the far North of Maine, and temperatures near 70 in Southern New England, and even into the 60s as far north as Central and perhaps Northern Vermont!

Wednesday, the weather remains quiet for all New England communities.  An upper level disturbance is carrying some clouds eastward from Ontario, and the clash between cool and warm air aloft is helping new clouds to develop and redevelop from time to time.  Hence, intervals of clouds and sun seems like the most prudent forecast, with the air too dry and the disturbance too weak to generate any precipitation.  This, coupled with a frost-free start earlier in the day, makes for an enjoyable "hump day," with the most dramatic feature on the weather map the big change in temperature from north to south Wednesday afternoon - 40s in the far North to 60s in Central and Southern New England.

I'm watching several disturbances to the west - one is moving east from Minnesota to Michigan, and will strengthen while straddling the Canadian border on Thursday.  The counter-clockwise swirl of air around this storm will cause warm air to surge north across most of Central and Southern New England, while the dense, cold dome of air in Southern Canada settles slowly southward into the far North Country.  The result will be a dramatic difference in Thursday weather, from steady snow most of the day in Northern Maine, to temperatures near 70 beneath sunshine in Southern New England!  Though the warm, southwest wind may have trouble penetrating all that far into Maine, most of Vermont and New Hampshire are likely to warm, as well.  Where the snow falls, though, it will fall steadily and at times heavily for northern Piscataquis, Somerset and especially Aroostook Counties in Maine.  In fact, cities like Caribou, Presque Isle, Fort Kent and Madawaska stand to pick up plowable accumulations of nearly six inches, if all pans out as it appears right now!

Behind this disturbance, a bubble of cool high pressure builds south from Canada and allows for a dry but chilly Friday, with the front representing the battle of cool and warm air just to our south, and ready to return, spreading some high altitude clouds overhead by late Friday.  Of course, this will only be the beginning of what will evolve into a big rainmaker for New England on Saturday.  Already, we see the components at play - a tight spiral over the Rockies, indicating plenty of energy aloft, and Tropical Storm Rick, landfalling into Mexico today.  The moisture associated with Rick will infuse the developing Central U.S. storm with warm and moist air, resulting in the intensification of a heavy band of precipitation that will move east as it becomes caught in the jet stream winds aloft.  By Saturday, this rain will be falling across New England, and will fall most of the day, with the primary surface storm pulling into Eastern Canada, but a new surface low pressure center developing right over New England.  This storm becomes a "southeaster" rather than a northeaster, because winds will blow from the southeast ahead of the storm center.  In fact, some of these winds may gust strong enough to cause tree and power line damage along the coast on Saturday, while the combination of lots of moisture with a thermal boundary of incoming warmth and outgoing cold will ensure plenty of rain falls.  Right now, I'm expecting an inch and a half west, and closer to two or three inches east.  These estimates are preliminary, however, and may need to be modified as we near Saturday.

By Sunday, the storm is pulling away and only cold air with atmospheric energy aloft will remain, meaning sun will be blotted out frequently by bubbling clouds that will produce some sprinkles, and perhaps some mountain and hill rain or snow showers.

Folks are already wondering about Halloween - my early call is for a heavy rain event on Friday the 30th.  Timing so far out is still a bit of a question, but the day certainly looks wet - I think the question is whether it can move quickly enough to be tapered to showers for most of us by trick-or-treat time, and that's a promise I can't make yet.  By Halloween Saturday, the rain will be gone but it's likely to be quite windy...and quite cold!  So, warm costumes are advised, at least from the early view!

Have a great day...  -Matt