MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS

Another juicy storm en route...this time likely to bring all rain, regionwide...

We're coming off a weekend that brought 20" of snow to Jay Peak, VT, and 18" to Bretton Woods, NH, as our top totals, but most North Country ski resorts topped over six inches, and many came in with over a foot!  Now, after a wintry mix in the North Country Monday morning, we turn to a shot of cooler air on the way.  Because the cool air will so quickly follow Monday's band of showers, some snow showers are possible in the mountains with light accumulation later Monday afternoon, and black ice will be a possibility Monday night into Tuesday morning regionwide, even into Southern New England.  As a general rule, if the ground is wet when you're heading to bed, it will likely be slick tomorrow morning.  Chilly air rules on Tuesday before slight moderation comes Wednesday ahead of the next storm, which is expected to tap the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico for moisture, delivering over an inch of soaking rain regionwide Wednesday night into Thursday.  In fact, with the track of that storm expected to be from south to north through Upstate New York, we should find very mild air moving into New England on Thursday, pushing Southern New England temperatures into the 60s with strong southerly winds.  Winds will shift abruptly during the day Thursday as cooler air moves in, and we'll return to favorable snowmaking temperatures for ski areas for the upcoming weekend.  There are still a number of storm possibility windows in the longer range, with a favorable setup for recurrent, moisture-loaded storms through at least the middle of December.  More on this will be available in today's technical streaming video.

Matt

Lots of thoughts on Twitter, too

It's an exciting storm for New England from a weather lover's perspective: challenge, lots of ingredients, a bombing storm and still some unknowns we can only educated guess at in advance. Below, you'll find a technical post from Fri AM, my last TV forecast from Thu in the post below that (the accums map should still be valid), and above these posts the technical discussion is streaming in the video window. But that's still not enough! :) On the left side of my page you'll see a tab for "Tweets," and if you click on that tab it will expand with my latest Twitter updates, and the ability to view any replies folks have offered. You can find me on Twitter @mattnoyes, our weather team @necnweather, Danielle Niles @danielleniles, Tim Kelley @SurfSkiWxMan, Joe Joyce @JoeJoyceNECN.

Strong storm development on target, underway

I'm posting from my cell phone this morning just to get some thoughts out quickly:

First, I see nothing that indicates the going forecast is in jeopardy for blizzard conditions in the higher terrain of Northern New England. I think yesterday's thought-process holds and this post is meant to supplement, not replace that thinking. I see continued reason to pay careful attention to a possible phase change in Central NewEng, especially Northern MA to Southern ME.

Mid-level center has excellent radar presentation well S of NewEng over open waters. Tropical tap of moisture has commenced ad is responsible for blossoming precip shield. This is all evidence that the ingredients have successfully come together for rapid cyclogenesis as a "bomb" develops right along the NewEng coastline.

This continues to be a dynamically driven event. The major players are found aloft, not at the surface, and that's part of what makes the forecast a bit tricky, because there is no well defined surface based baroclinic zone you can key in on for phase changes (rain vs snow) or storm track. That said, the cold pool aloft is impressive an through ageostrophic flow and dynamic cooling, the storm develops it's own baroclinicity from the top down.

There's still a notable absence of antecedent cold air evident on the surface plot this morning, but stations like St. Johnsbury are 34/32 and this is evidence an elevation event is in the cards. While snowfall amounts will increase markedly above 1000 feet, I do think that all but the deeper valleys of Northern NewEng should squeeze out a couple of sloppy inches, at least, with dynamic cooling overcoming the warm bubble of air that remains trapped in the lower elevations.

I see no reason to deviate from blizzard conditions in the higher terrain above 1000 feet, when cold advection favors downward momentum transport and the increasing ageostrophic flow cranks winds to 50 knots at 850 mb overnight Fri night into Sat AM and we mix that down for several hours of 45+ mph gusts.

There are still two areas of greatest uncertainty. The first remains in Central and especially Western Maine, including Portland, Augusta and Sanford, even into Rochester and Stratham NH. Myconcern here is continued evidence that the end of the period of most rapid intensification just off the Maine coast pulls down a small tongue of cold air from the mountains, with origins in Eastern Canada. In an already somewhat marginal environment and with such intense vertical ascent due to dynamic lift in the comma head precip, I'm actually expecting to see a burst of "surprise" heavy snow sometime the first part of Friday night, with changeover starting not long after sundown. Accumulations would be unlikely to exceed a couple of inches of wet snow, and it may appear in pockets beneath only the greatest upward vertical motion.

Finally, there is the question of Southern NewEng. Temperatures are far less marginal here when the strongest dynamic lift come through, so the potential for a meaningful surprise event is smaller. Still, as mentioned in the streaming technical discussion, north of the MA Pike the precip will be more stubborn to shut down and the cold air advection kicks in, so by Friday night, there is the potential for some light snow from the Worcester Hills to Southern NH/MA border, still thinking in pretty much the same area indicate on the accumulation map that appears in yesterday's video TV forecast, in the post below.

That's all from me for now. Going to be a great storm to watch. Have you tried the Google Earth radar linked at the top of this page yet? I think you'll like it.

Matt

Near-blizzard conditions possible in North Country mountains, heavy rain south

The combination of strong energy moving east across the Ohio Valley and deep moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico will create a rapidly intensifying storm just off the coast of New England.  This storm is likely to "bomb" - or rapidly intensify - on Friday as it moves north across Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine through Friday night.

After a quiet but mostly cloudy Thanksgiving Day, winds may shift just a bit to blow from the east Thursday night and bring drizzle and fog back into coastal and far southern areas, in advance of the approaching storm.  Rains that develop Thursday night transition to heavy rain on Friday with a widespread one to two inches likely, resulting in wet Black Friday shoppers, and creating areas of urban street flooding and ponding of water on roadways.  The rain should taper across Southern New England by middle afternoon Friday, but Central New England - including Northern MA - are likely to find the rain quite stubborn to quit.  As the storm bombs and pulls into the Gulf of Maine waters, it will act much like a vacuum cleaner - sucking air directly into its center.  This means a northwest wind that will limit any threat for coastal flooding or beach erosion (northwest is an off-shore wind for almost everyone) but will carry cool air southeast.  There is very little cold air available in Eastern Canada right now, so we're not talking about a quick or widespread change from rain to snow.  Rather, most deeper valleys, even in the North Country, will stay as rain with just a brief burst of snow, and it'll be the mountains and higher elevations that can cool enough to see a change to snow Friday evening and night.  In these locales, however, the combination of heavy snow and winds gusting to 45 mph late Friday night to early Saturday will create near-blizzard or perhaps bona fide blizzard conditions for the mountainous terrain of the North Country, including North-Central Vermont to the Northeast Kingdom, the northern side of the Whites, and the northwest mountains of Maine.  Elsewhere, snow is expected in Northern Maine, rain to snow in Central Maine, and some Friday night snow in the Central/Southern Greens and Berkshires.  All locales that see snow will have elevation dependency - more on hills and less in valleys.  We're also going to watch Southern Maine and Southeast New Hampshire very carefully - your temperatures will be marginal when you see a continued burst of heavy precipitation the first part of Friday night that may turn to a burst of snow with a quick couple of inches of accumulation.  That's a tenuous circumstance, similar to the snow for the Patriots in Foxboro, MA, back in October.  By Saturday, most spots will be drying out but widespread gusts to 45 mph combined with highs only in the 40s will mean a chilly day with a few rain and snow showers scattered about, though periodic snow will continue in the mountains with near-blizzard conditions early.  Sunday brings quieter but still cool weather regionwide before another storm brings rain for many - and perhaps some snow in the North - later Monday and Monday night.

For a full video technical discussion, see mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/ where the discussion is streaming in the video window.

Significant North Country snow still en route, especially for Vermont

Today's technical discussion is streaming in the video window.  There WILL be a technical discussion on Thanksgiving.  Today's TV weather broadcast is here.

Three disturbances mark the transition from fall to winter pattern...winter sports lovers rejoice

There are three main players on the map today - one is leaving, one marks the transition to a colder regime, and the other will ensure the cold air makes it all the way into New England, instead of stopping at the Great Lakes.  While the new air that will arrive for the weekend is actually only typical for this time of the year, that'll be enough to crank out snow in the mountains of the North Country, and get snow guns firing across Ski Country.  For much more on the technical aspects of the forecast, please enjoy the streaming technical discussion above.

Snow lovers get antsy, but a pattern change awaits

We find ourselves at the start of another week that appears snowless for most of New England, though hope remains for late this week into the weekend in the mountains.  More importantly for skiing and snowboard enthusiasts, the pattern change I've been promising for weeks still appears to be en route...which at the very least means consistently colder air to produce manmade snow, whether or not nature decides to cooperate.  Of course, this doesn't satiate the appetite of starving snow-lovers, eager for some natural white gold.

Today's technical forecast discussion is streaming and focuses especially on the chances for snow, and what windows in the next two weeks I would pay particularly close attention to, with a look at the pattern into the middle of December, so I'd encourage you to watch the video if you want a 12 minute technical assessment of the weather.  I know it's on the long side, but my hope is that you'll find unparalleled explanation.  Use the chat feature below the video to communicate with me - even when I'm not online I'll still see your comment or question when I come back, and I'll address it in my next video.

In the short term, I'm always pleasantly fascinated when some of the most basic concepts successfully produce sensible weather, and today is one of those days.  An upper level low is decaying, but still ever-present as it drifts over New England, carrying cold air high in the sky.  That cold air aloft, coupled with the moisture increasing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, will combine to produce scattered bursts of showers and downpours, and with cold air aloft, some of these downpours may bring a few snowflakes!  Precipitation should reach into Central VT/NH/Southern ME Monday evening and night, but any early morning Tuesday rain will taper as the surface low pressure center takes control and buzzes by New England to the southeast.  Nonetheless, that will leave a northerly wind with a lot of near-surface moisture for New England on Tuesday, so clouds and resultant cool temperatures should linger, with some drizzle, especially during the first half of the day.  Wednesday may be our one brighter day, as northern dry air muscles south with a bubble of high pressure bridged from Eastern Canada to the Appalachian Mountains, but a new storm will already be developing along the Eastern Seaboard.  That storm is expected to deliver thickening clouds quickly on Thanksgiving Day, with rain developing - probably during the afternoon - and the rain would continue Thursday night.  I'll be watching the North Country, especially the mountains, carefully, considering temperatures will be marginal...running close to the freezing mark just a couple of thousand feet off the ground, so this certainly could mean high elevation snow.  Regardless, colder air streams in later Thursday night and Friday, which favors upslope snow showers on a west wind, and instability snow showers in the North Country beneath the upper level energy.  Next week's pattern brings continued cold air for snowmaking, and a gradually improving prospects for cold, winter coastal storms.  See the technical streaming video for more on that!

Hey ski and snowboard lovers! I had an awesome time at the Ski and Snowboard Expo in Boston last night, and interviewed four awesome Olympians - you can check out the interviews on my Out and About Page, or WeatherNewEngland.com! http://www.mattnoyes.net/out_and_about/

After windswept thunderstorms, a quiet weekend while we wait for deep cold to arrive

The end of our relatively mild stretch is in sight, but it's not likely to come until immediately after Thanksgiving.  In fact, Turkey Day seems to be the defining moment that will change our weather pattern.  Until then, high pressure building in behind Friday morning's storm center will bring fair skies and cool but comfortable late fall conditions for the weekend.  The downpours Friday morning were impressive - driven by a combination of strong energy and cold air aloft, and lots of warm, somewhat humid air near the ground - thunderstorms developed throughout Southern and Central New England Friday morning, but left behind mild and fantastic conditions in their wake for many locales.  The west wind Friday night into Saturday will usher in cool air, and as that wind pushes up against the mountainfaces of the Green and White Mountains, some rain showers Friday night change to snow showers in the mountains on Saturday.  A storm winding up along the Mid-Atlantic coast later Sunday will pull south of New England, and may throw some relatively light rain onto Southern New England on Monday, and while that rain will be far cooler than Friday's mild thunderstorms, it'll still be bearable for so deep into November.  Milder than normal temperatures are expected the middle of next week, but the next strong upper level disturbance will spawn a storm that will wind up to our west, allowing enough warm air to move in for mostly rain whenever the storm center makes its closest pass (there's still a lot of uncertainty on timing - I'm thinking late Wednesday into early Thursday, but lots of options are open on timing here), with some snow in the mountains at the end of the storm.  Regardless, cold air wrapping under the belly of the storm will move into the Northeast immediately following its passage, after dropping from Alaska and Northern Canada currently (sub-zero through most of Alaska except the south coast!), to the Plains, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, then finally pushing into New England.  Once this pattern begins, colder temperatures should prevail, allowing snowmaking at ski resorts to begin in earnest, and raising the chances for some natural snow, as well.

Whoa! Check out the video of the Western U.S. fireball in the sky on http://headlines.nationalweatheronline.com Amazing stuff! They're saying probably not a Leonid, but likely an asteroid!!