MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS

Video Forecast: After gusts to 90 mph slam New England, snow is moving back in

What a night.  Like so many of us, I hardly slept a wink as the damaging winds slammed Northeast Massachusetts, and my home in Haverhill saw the flashing on the roof ripped off and wrapped around a tree in my backyard.  I tried five unsuccessful ways to work at 2 AM, and finally the sixth and final option was the only one that was passable - barely - with only inches between my car and two large trees, suspended only by electrical wires.  Thankfully, the damaging wind is done.  Snow squalls will move across New England this weekend...

Video Forecast: Damaging wind coasts to mountains, flooding rain, roofs endangered, Maine mountains socked with snow

One important WIND UPDATE you won't see in this weather broadcast, below, because I neglected to mention it but included it in all other broadcasts:  A mountain wave of damaging wind is likely to develop within a couple hours of midnight Thursday night on the western slopes of Vermont's Green Mountains.  Winds coming from the east-southeast will blow at 100 mph at the summits, and conditions will be favorable for violent gusts of wind to slope down the opposite sides of the mountains.  A weaker version of the same phenomenon is possible in the far Upper Valley northwest of the White Mountains.

Otherwise, no big changes to the forecast, but all the details are depicted in the broadcast below.  Please see yesterday's written summary in the post below if you'd like text details.

Water (rain), wind, waves, weight (rooftops) and today I'll add white (feet of snow in mountains of ME and higher terrain NH).

FYI, Killington just checked in this morning with 40" of snow thus far.

Noon Forecast:

5 AM Forecast:

New England's W concerns next 84 hours: weight, wind, waves and wet

Heavy snow continues to gradually shift northward after dropping up to two feet in some of the Berkshires, and will perform the same feat in the Green Mountains of Vermont, and when all is said and done, perhaps the White Mountains and Mahoosucs, as well.

Of course, my job is to look ahead to what nature will deal us next.  I'm concerned with three W's for Thursday:

1) WEIGHT:  Anyone who received over a foot of new snow from Tuesday night/Wednesday's event needs to be aware of the issue of rooftop weight.  The snow was very heavy, as one round of shoveling can quickly attest to, and this snow will add weight to all structures.  The concern comes with the inch or more of rain expected Thursday - starting up by mid-morning in some of Southern New England, and encompassing more areas by afternoon.  Where a foot or more of snow fell, this new snowpack will absorb that rain and substantially increase in weight, making roof collapses a concern.  For those who received over a foot of snow, flat roofs should be cleared before the rain arrives.  For those who received over 18 inches, all rooftops should be cleared.  Rain is likely even into the mountains.

2) WIND:  A very strong storm will intensify quickly just south of New England.  The media, in general, is hyping this storm.  Let's be clear that it will not be like the New England "Winter Hurricane" of 2005 that brought 110 mph winds to Cape Cod with thundersnow, with winds consolidated around the core.  That was amazing.  This storm will also be amazing, but not to the same degree, and will not be the same type of compact creature.  Rather, heavy snow will hit New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania (eventually southwest CT, too) but New England will be dealt the wind.  The difference in air pressure from this storm to a fair weather cell in Canada will help to produce wind gusts near 70 mph on the immediate coastlines of Eastern New England Thursday evening, producing damage and churning the seas.

3) WAVES:  The strong wind will churn waves to 25-30 feet along the coast of Northern MA, New Hampshire and Maine!  This will bring substantial beach erosion from battering surf, Thursday night through Saturday.  Storm surge will accompany these waves and wind, and that will mean an increased risk of coastal flooding at each high tide cycle, especially Friday and Saturday.

4) WET:  Finally, all of the rain later Thursday and Thursday night will make big puddles for hydroplaning, localized flooding, and perhaps some scattered river flooding where wet snow will melt in Central New Hampshire and Maine.  Basement flooding will occur in homes prone to this, as well, thanks to the high water table.

Video Forecast: As white-out conditions rage in the Berkshires, highly variable storm gets underway

Keep in mind that week-long storm totals are still expected to range from two to three FEET in most of the mountains.  The coast of Maine very well may fall far short of my forecast from Monday morning - it became apparent by early Monday afternoon that the cold will fail to hold on long enough in this region.  Farther south, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and State of New Hampshire will battle it out for greatest one-state difference in weather Tuesday evening through Wednesday, with both states recording over a foot of snow in some communities (Berkshires and White Mountains) and nothing in others (near the coast).

There will be another wave of stormy weather later Thursday into Friday.  Though forecasts for exact track and intensity are quite variable, strong onshore wind combined with astronomically high tides continue to have me concerned for some coastal flooding.  Severity would be determined by storm placement and track.  Air would likely be warm enough for mostly rain on Thursday, though heavy mountain snow is likely again.  Friday, depending upon evolution of the system, bursts of snow would be possible farther south.

Video Forecast: Six day snowfall totals to exceed two feet in New England mountains!

What a stretch we have ahead of us!  After sunshine and a mild Monday, unsettled weather moves in through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.  I featured two snowfall maps in today's morning broadcasts - a prediction through Wednesday night, and a six day total snow estimate.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Manchester/Concord stretch of New Hampshire sees a bit more than indicated on the short-term map, but the gist of this is for very little if any snow in the lower terrain of Southern New England, and higher amounts in elevated locales.  The greatest uncertainty comes in Eastern Massachusetts for the six-day total, as a Thursday/Thursday night storm may deliver substantial accumulating snow closer to the coast, depending upon its track.

Bursts of snow come and go, but bulls-eye area has nothing as of midday...

And I don't think that's a major problem.  My streaming technical discussion is in the video window at the top of my New England Weather Page and lays out the case for a heavy burst of snow to fill in Tuesday afternoon and evening.  In the progression of my forecasts from today, below, you'll see that I did have to shrink the area of six inches, and I lowered the bulls-eye amount a bit, but the fundamentals of the forecast remain.

11 AM:

9 AM:

7 AM:

5 AM:

Plowable snow for many...Rockingham County, NH, may be jackpot on Tuesday

There will be two storm centers to track on Tuesday - one will move southeast of New England by a wide margin and take a lot of moisture with it.  The other will be a weaker storm center that will pass over Cape Cod and should still retain enough moisture and energy to crank out plowable snow for many areas, including a probable bullseye in Rockingham County, New Hampshire, or somewhere thereabouts.  Hence, the reason for the small area of higher snow totals.  That bullseye is probably the most flexible part of the forecast, but signals are fairly consistent that it will set up as indicated.  A change to rain is likely in Southeastern MA, and though a few complications may arise for some areas due to relatively warm road temperatures at the start of the event - and then rising afternoon temperatures - most communities should see snow sticking adequately for plows to come out.

Confidence is moderate to high for plowable snow in the Northeast on Wednesday

Unlike the previous few storms, this one won't spare New England.

Weekend blizzard to slam Mid-Atlantic, mostly miss New England

Carefully watching mammoth Mid-Atlantic storm

Though the bulk of this one will miss New England, accumulating and plowable snow is still possible for far Southern New England, including Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts.  At this point, I think folks in these areas should watch this very carefully.  Farther north to the Massachusetts Turnpike, the storm bears watching.  Down to a low probability of plowable snow by the MA/NH/VT borders, and very slim chance farther north.  There could be some ocean effect snow showers in Eastern Massachusetts, even where the shield of snow from the south never makes it in, on Saturday.

Continuous updates on Twitter (twitter.com/mattnoyes/) and live streaming technical discussions and updates in the video window at mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather.