Heavy snow continues to gradually shift northward after dropping up to two feet in some of the Berkshires, and will perform the same feat in the Green Mountains of Vermont, and when all is said and done, perhaps the White Mountains and Mahoosucs, as well.
Of course, my job is to look ahead to what nature will deal us next. I'm concerned with three W's for Thursday:
1) WEIGHT: Anyone who received over a foot of new snow from Tuesday night/Wednesday's event needs to be aware of the issue of rooftop weight. The snow was very heavy, as one round of shoveling can quickly attest to, and this snow will add weight to all structures. The concern comes with the inch or more of rain expected Thursday - starting up by mid-morning in some of Southern New England, and encompassing more areas by afternoon. Where a foot or more of snow fell, this new snowpack will absorb that rain and substantially increase in weight, making roof collapses a concern. For those who received over a foot of snow, flat roofs should be cleared before the rain arrives. For those who received over 18 inches, all rooftops should be cleared. Rain is likely even into the mountains.
2) WIND: A very strong storm will intensify quickly just south of New England. The media, in general, is hyping this storm. Let's be clear that it will not be like the New England "Winter Hurricane" of 2005 that brought 110 mph winds to Cape Cod with thundersnow, with winds consolidated around the core. That was amazing. This storm will also be amazing, but not to the same degree, and will not be the same type of compact creature. Rather, heavy snow will hit New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania (eventually southwest CT, too) but New England will be dealt the wind. The difference in air pressure from this storm to a fair weather cell in Canada will help to produce wind gusts near 70 mph on the immediate coastlines of Eastern New England Thursday evening, producing damage and churning the seas.
3) WAVES: The strong wind will churn waves to 25-30 feet along the coast of Northern MA, New Hampshire and Maine! This will bring substantial beach erosion from battering surf, Thursday night through Saturday. Storm surge will accompany these waves and wind, and that will mean an increased risk of coastal flooding at each high tide cycle, especially Friday and Saturday.
4) WET: Finally, all of the rain later Thursday and Thursday night will make big puddles for hydroplaning, localized flooding, and perhaps some scattered river flooding where wet snow will melt in Central New Hampshire and Maine. Basement flooding will occur in homes prone to this, as well, thanks to the high water table.
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