MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS

March 31, 2010 Technical Discussion - Though not in the spotlight this time, still concern for Merrimack River

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I'm concerned about the Merrimack and Shawsheen Rivers overnight Wednesday night through Thursday.

March 28, 2010 - Matt Noyes Technical Discussion - Epic Flooding May Result from 6"+ of rain

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My fear is that the warnings of 2"-5" of rain are woefully underdone. I'm expecting a widespread 6" with localized amounts up to 10-12". Therefore, I'm suggesting that all who evacuated in the May 2006 floods make EARLY preps to do so again by midweek. If the forecast changes, I'll let you know and we can stand down, but right now, I don't like what I see. In this video, I'll show you why.

March 26, 2010 - Matt Noyes Technical Discussion

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I'm growing quite concerned about the potential for significant flooding as model consensus begins to emerge on a potential 3"-5", three day rainfall to start next workweek.

Sunshine to boost temperatures to 70 in some spots today

Drying continues across New England - the Nashua, Concord, Sudbury, Ipswich, Taunton and Charles Rivers are all still showing significant flooding, and are very slow to drop.

Wet snow will have a hard time accumulating, but heavier bursts to add up in Southeast MA

9 AM Weather:

I made no changes to the accumulation forecast map between 5 AM and 9 AM.  Snow has been mixed with rain at times in many spots, and marginal temperatures will mean many roads fare well, and an accurate snowfall prediction must account for both the rate of snowfall, but also the rate of melting.  With a sun angle equivalent to that of October sun, it's getting tougher and tougher for daytime snow to accumulate significantly, unless you have higher elevation or a heavy burst of snow.  That's the reasoning - along with an expected midday lull in intensity - for my expansive low-impact snow forecast.  In Southern Bristol and Plymouth Counties, right on through Cape Cod, a deep east wind will develop in the atmosphere, and this will bring the heaviest burst of snow, likely to be timed coincident with the evening commute.  Resultantly, this will also be where the heaviest total snowfall is expected.  You can follow the precipitation on radar from my main New England Weather Page.

I'll update this video and include a bit of a written summary mid-morning, but here's the 5 AM take on accumulations...

Just as I was ready to close the door on Wednesday snow, I decide to keep it open for Wednesday night

For over a week, those who view the technical video discussions on this page know I've been towing the line on the storm potential for this Wednesday or Wednesday night.  Over time, it's become more difficult to find any credible support, with the only guidance product supporting this potential being the very same product that has performed so terribly this winter season in multiple events.  So, hesitantly, I went on the air Tuesday morning and explained that it looked like this storm would stay far enough south to miss us afterall.  I was uncomfortable doing it, but with very little quantitative evidence to support my thinking, there wasn't much other option.

Of course, it's only fitting that the morning model guidance has come northward, now coming into increasing clarity on an accumulating snow event for at least far Southern New England.  So, as I assembled the accumulation map for the noon show on Tuesday, I returned to some of my original, gut instinct on the weather pattern, but also amended for the guidance.  The end result is a conservative beginning for an accumulation map - able to be easily lowered or raised depending upon future guidance trends, and the best forecast possible currently.

While coastal flooding pounds the seashore, the weather quiets elsewhere

Though you won't see too much focus in this weather broadcast from 12:21 PM, the hits at 12:01 and 12:11 focused heavily on the significant flooding occurring in the Brant Rock section of Marshfield, MA, at the time of the broadcast.  Pictures were shared from other communities such as Plymouth and Marblehead, and information on the Brant Rock section was conveyed:  reports of 3 feet of water, buildings inundated, rocks the size of boulders hurled over the seawall by waves and smashing out windows, and personal belongings floating down the street.