In what is historically a stormy period for New England, first full week of February to be uneventful for Northeast

The first 7-10 days of February historically bring one of the highest probabilities of snowstorms for New England, but the Winter of 2011/12 will, once again, fail to produce.  On Monday night's NECN 9 PM, 10 and midnight broadcasts, I outlined the expectation of an above to much above normal temperature regime for most of the United States, with the possible exception of New England.  Thursday night, we examined the brutal and deadly cold that has gripped most of the remainder of the globe.  To wrap up the week, Friday night brought this - an examination of the jet stream pattern that is prohibiting East Coast storm development during the climatologically most active time of the year for the Northeast.  A "split flow" is in place across the Lower 48 - that is, a separation of the polar jet stream to the north, and the subtropical jet stream to the south.  The polar jet stream holds cold air to its north, and transports cold, energetic disturbances, often originating in high latitudes and dropping south.  The subtropical jet stream holds warm, tropical air to its south, and transports moisture and moisture-laden energetic disturbances.  For large storms to form, these streams must "phase," or come together, to combine northern energy and cold with southern energy, warmth and moisture.  Without the combination of these factors, it's very difficult to get a sizeable storm, and in a split flow, these separate jet stream winds are unable to phase.  So, snow lovers should be looking for the next opportunity for phasing, which doesn't look to happen through February 10, though notice in the second image, representing the jet stream pattern by week's end, there actually *is* phasing along the East Coast, but by the time the streams phase, any resultant storm would already be zipping off the coast.  What we'll need to watch for is if this area of phasing backs westward just a bit next weekend or toward the middle of the month.

Comments

[Gary]

Matt, I believe we are also going to be either above or much above normal in terms of temperatures.