OK, so it's an unsettled pattern - but what are the chances of rain in my town this weekend?

It's an annoying forecast to hear as a viewer, and an uncomfortable one to deliver as a meteorologist:  An unsettled pattern with scattered showers and thunder, particularly during the afternoon.

It's summer.  Tell me something I don't know.

Not only do meteorologists hear you, and as regular people trying to make our own plans, completely understand the feeling, but most of us feel the same way when we deliver a forecast like that.  But are we good enough to be more specific?

The answer is yes - sort of.  Neither the technology nor our brains are advanced enough to nail down exactly what towns will get a shower or storm the next day, or in the case of this weekend, the next two days.  But, thankfully, if we look hard enough, we CAN find a way to quantify your chance of precipitation.  There are a few methods to accomplish this task, but my favorite is to guage what percentage of our guidance is forecasting precipitation for any given location, fit that to the weather pattern to ensure it makes sense, modify it if need be, then share the quantifiable chance of precipitation.  I will share maps of this on my NECN weathercasts this evening, but for now, here's some of the numbers.

Chance of Precipitation during the DAY Saturday:

• Within 20 miles of the Eastern coasts: 30%
• Rhode Island Interstate 95 to MA 495 belt, northeast along/near the Maine Turnpike: 55%
• Farther inland: 65% or greater
• Champlain Valley, VT:  35%
• Northern Maine: 5%

Chance of Precipitation during the day Sunday:

• Rhode Island Interstate 95 to MA 495 belt, northeast along/near the Maine Turnpike and all the way to the coast: 40%
• Central/Western MA and CT: 60%
• Central/Northern NH, Central/Western ME: 55%
• Champlain Valley, VT: 30%
• Northern ME: 5%
• All other locales: 45%

Again, I'll have a map of this on NECN this evening, when I get to work and get on the graphics system so I can create it, but I hope this gives you an idea that our weekend is NOT a washout, but there are certainly some areas that will dodge showers and thunderstorms.

-Matt

Comments

[Jason Camp]

Matt, you do a great job at NECN and this is a wonderful breakdown of precip chances. Thanks!

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