Wintry Feeling as the Boys of Summer Take the Home Field

LKN_1PART_SKY_FENWAYSunshine couples with a winter-like airmass today to keep temperatures in the 40s and wind chill values in the 20s!  The wind will whip from the west – gusting to 40 mph out to right field for the Red Sox home opener but not nearly as strong as overnight last night, meaning wind damage is not expected for most areas and those without power will come back on the grid. The wind will gradually subside heading into the night – though at least a breeze continues – as temperatures drop into the 20s under clear skies.  Friday is expected to start dry with a quiet and cold morning commute, but our next disturbance closes in and brings developing rain and snow by late morning.  A changing wind will slowly bring milder air into Southern New England for wet snow to change to rain from coast to interior, and while road impact isn’t expected to be significant, grassy and cold surfaces will see a dusting to an inch of snow before the transition, with one or two inches in the deep interior. Northern New England will continue snowing into Friday evening, with the mountains picking up a few inches of snow, and high terrain closer to half a foot.  We’re paying close attention to just how far south another feed of atmospheric moisture gathered around a follow-up storm center will nudge on Saturday, and whether more accumulating snow will be in the cards – those farthest south have the greatest chance.  By Sunday, any moisture should be safely shoved offshore until our next storm moves in with a brief mix changing to rain Monday night through Tuesday.  By the end of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast, we finally see signs of significantly milder air, which may stick around into Marathon Monday.

Quick Blast of Monday Morning Snow Hits Connecticut Hardest

LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (10)A quick burst of snow lasting only four to five hours was enough to deliver nearly half a foot of snow to some of Connecticut, with at least a couple of inches for the vast majority of Southern New England. Given the strong sun angle this time of year (even through clouds), the mild weekend and resultant mild pavement, and the brevity of the snow, most roads could withstand the snow well, but Connecticut and far Southern New England’s impact has been greater. As snow departs, melting ensues, with afternoon temperatures rising well into the 40s for ample road spray and solar glare during the late day.  Northern New England stays dry, but where moisture falls, a partly cloudy and sub-freezing overnight will mean patchy black ice.  In a very active weather pattern, another disturbance races into New England Tuesday afternoon, meaning limited morning sun quickly fades as rain clouds arrive for the afternoon and evening, marking a push of considerably milder air that won’t be felt Tuesday, but will make itself known Wednesday in the form of a busy wind and temperatures around and over 60 degrees in most of Southern New England.  Showers are likely Wednesday amidst the warmer air, as the atmosphere will remain in flux, set to cool again by Thursday, but the new, cool air will be dry enough for a fair home opener for the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.  Our busy weather pattern resumes Friday with a rain/snow line setting up in Central New England, then perhaps another storm early next week in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Classic Spring Weather Pattern Moving In

LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA (4)Not only is today hump day for our workweek, but we’re getting over the hump weatherwise, too, with showers giving way to sunshine and temperatures responding to the sun by jumping into the 50s. A nearly calm wind will make for a quiet overnight ahead of a mostly cloudy Thursday before the next disturbance arrives with some showers Thursday midday and afternoon…all in air that will support highs in the 50s again.  In fact, spring temperatures will stick around through the holiday weekend, making our biggest task timing of showers that will come and go over the next several days.  At this point, it looks like a period of showers is likely Friday, then drier air will take hold of New England for a pleasant Holy Saturday.  The next disturbance is set to move across Northern New England on Easter Sunday, dragging a cold front from northwest to southeast.  Though the passing cold front brings an elevated chance of showers Easter Sunday, we’re not expecting a wet day by any stretch, and even the timing of the showers remains in flux until we get a better handle of what time the instigating disturbance will move through.  Next week brings a gradual but consistent cooling in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

New England Set to Transition to Milder Air For Awhile

LKN_SATRAD_ANALYSISA sunny and frosty start gave way to milder temperatures near 50 and increasing clouds today, all as even milder air approaches New England.  Between New England and the milder air staged across the Ohio Valley is a round of mixed showers composed of rain, freezing rain and sleet.  By the time approaching showers arrive overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, some snow will be mixed in for the mountains, and light, spotty freezing rain showers may cause a few slick spots early Wednesday morning as far south as Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and the suburbs north and west of Boston.  Not expected to be a high-impact event, those light mixed sprinkles and showers will depart early Wednesday morning, then clouds should give way to some sun by afternoon with highs eventually reaching the 50s in at least Southern New England.  Once the milder air arrives, it’ll stick around for at least a few days with highs in the 50s Thursday through Saturday.  With the jet stream wind – the corridor of fast wind high in the sky that steers disturbances and separates northern cool air from southern warmth – flowing overhead this holiday weekend, we do see an elevated chance for some showers, but timing those showers will be key.  Right now, our exclusive built-in-house guidance shows a 20% to 40% chance of showers Saturday and Sunday, respectively, but we’re not expecting any soakers at this point. Temperatures will gradually cool by the middle of next week, at the end of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Lingering Winter Air Starts the Week, Spring Ends It

LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA (3)A new work week but the same, colder-than-normal weather pattern…at least for now.  The same northeast wind that dragged clouds and snow showers over New England this weekend has now carried drier air into the region, bringing abundant sunshine throughout the six state region to start the workweek.  Being so deep into this Canadian air also means we’re deep into the chilly nature of it, and highs will have trouble reaching too much above 40 degrees Monday, especially at the coast where the wind blows in from the cool ocean water.  A wintry night of clear sky and relatively light wind will allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s, with a continued onshore wind Tuesday keeping seaside communities in the 40s while some inland towns reach 50 degrees as morning sun becomes milky behind increasing high –altitude clouds.  The next upper level disturbance arrives overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, delivering a mix of snow showers north, freezing rain and sleet showers central and rain with a touch of freezing rain south for the Wednesday morning drive. The good news, if you’re awaiting spring weather, is the Wednesday morning mix represents the leading edge to milder air, with Wednesday afternoon possibly climbing into the upper 40s, and Thursday likely to burst into the 50s!  A slow moving cold front will drag over New England from the Great Lakes Thursday night through Saturday morning, bringing a few rounds of showers, but right now it looks like drier air will return for clearing Saturday afternoon and a dry Easter Sunday – as of now, our exclusive in-house guidance shows only a 20% chance of an Easter shower. The chance of showers rises again next week, but temperatures hover near 50 in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Cool Air Sticking Around in New England...Some Snowflakes Return

LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (9)Cool air isn’t going to leave New England anytime soon – in fact, it’ll build stronger into the region.  Today’s high temperatures climb into the 40s for many of us, nearing 50 from Hartford to Providence, but the storm that buzzed by New England yesterday after slamming the Mid-Atlantic and New York City is still sitting over Atlantic Canada, and it’s large enough and strong enough to continue having an impact on our region.  One disturbance is sliding overhead today and delivers building clouds with flurries and sprinkles this afternoon – some of which will continue in the Green Mountains, northern Berkshires and northwest facing slopes of the Whites overnight with a light accumulation.  Saturday dawns with a north wind and cold air – that combination may blow some ocean effect snow showers off of Cape Cod Bay onto the Cape Saturday morning while the rest of New England sees more clouds than sun and highs in the lower 40s ahead of another disturbance sailing through the sky above Saturday evening.  From Saturday evening through night, the combination of atmospheric energy aloft and a developing northeast wind will crank up some snow showers in eastern New England – from Maine and Central/Eastern New Hampshire through Boston and Cape Cod – for accumulation of a coating to two inches, mostly on the grass. A continued onshore wind Sunday means a raw feeling with snowflakes continuing to fall from time to time.  The sky clears Monday but cool air lingers until the next storm system draws slowly closer Wednesday through Friday, gradually raising temperatures and bringing a slowly increasing chance of rain showers in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Dry Air Ruins the Snow Forecast...Cool Air To Stick Around

10_DAY_ACTIVE (2)The much advertised nor’easter number four may have delivered a slam dunk of snow from the nation’s capital to the City that never sleeps, but when it comes to New England, it was a shadow of what we expected it to be.  The culprit for this forecast demise was an abundance of dry air – cited in our on-air forecasts the morning of the storm, our concern had been that dry air would cause wide variability in snowfall amounts…instead, that dry air absolutely dominated, eating away at much of the moisture as it tried streaming north into New England.  Dry air evaporating the moisture meant a slower start to the snow…and a slower start to snow meant temperatures remained milder, further cutting accumulations when snow finally began.  So, pockets of wet snow accumulate a coating to two inches over the course of Thursday morning with diminishing intensity and warming temperatures virtually negating most impact from late morning onward.  The upcoming weekend will continue cool air for New England, with more clouds than sun Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and a disturbance followed by a northeast wind likely to deliver snow showers late Saturday through Saturday night, with flurries lingering Sunday.  Though some warming is expected next week, it’ll likely happen later in the week.

Though This Nor'Easter is Weaker, Over a Foot of Snow for Some

LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (8) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (8) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (8) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (8) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (8)Here we go...again. Today’s clouds give way to developing rain/snow from south to north, very slow to expand, midday to evening.  With highs in the 30s, snow will melt quickly and easily on treated roads and interstates until after dark, when snowfall rates increase and the impact of very dim sun through clouds is lessened.  A northeast wind will increase to 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph at the coast and over 50 mph on Cape Cod between 11 PM and 4 AM, causing only isolated or widely scattered power outages.  When combined with a 3 AM high tide, the combination of high water and building waves offshore to 15-20’ will likely bring minor coastal flooding two hours either side of high tide, particularly in vulnerable South Shore locales.  Bursts of heavier snow will occur overnight into early Thursday morning, likely resulting in snow covered and slick roads and some delays Thursday morning.  Total snowfall is expected to be between half a foot and a foot in most of Southern New England, with localized variability owing to pockets of dry air aloft, and higher amounts in Connecticut.  Lingering light snow will break apart to snow showers Thursday morning, leaving flurries and sprinkles with raw air for the rest of the day.  A new disturbance aloft Friday will bring more clouds than sun, a chance of afternoon snow showers north and evening snow showers south. Saturday should be quieter for most of New England, but later Sunday into Sunday night we may be grazed by yet another storm passing close.  We’re hopeful the moderating temperatures showing up next week in the 10-day forecast will hold!

Yet Another Nor'easter...This One Less Damaging Than Its Predecessors

LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (7) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (7) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (7) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (7)After a chilly and dry Tuesday with highs only near 40 degrees and a wind chill in the 30s, temperatures drop to the 20s and teens overnight tonight as clouds gradually increase from south to north this afternoon through the overnight. At this point, looks like predawn start South Coast of New England, 7-9 AM Worcester, 9-11 AM Boston, 11-1 PM Merrimack Valley, but that may change with updated info later today - Snow start timing is heavily dependent upon the battle of existing dry air with the incoming moisture. Storm track is a HUGE factor with this one for two reasons - potential sharp decrease in amounts on north side and exact placement of narrow heaviest band. Tomorrow's New England nor'easter less intense version than its three predecessors, but will still bring Wednesday evening and night gusts to 50+ Cape Cod, 40+ Eastern MA coast for widely scattered outages. Seas churn 18-22' by Wednesday night, high tide ~3am, minor coastal flooding in the typically vulnerable areas of the South Shore. The storm pulls out Thursday predawn but flurries will linger in Eastern New England through the morning and midday along with chilly air. The weekend looks cool with clouds far outnumbering sun and a few periods of snow showers – overnight Friday night, then perhaps grazed by another storm Sunday evening or night. Next week only brings slow moderation in temperature.

Cold and Windy Weekend...Watching Wednesday

LKN_WEEKEND_PRECIP_ACTIVE (1)Our weather in the coming days will be defined, first and foremost, by chilly air and a gusty wind.  Highs each day, Friday into next week, will struggle to surpass the 30s, and winds gusting at times to 35 and 40 mph will mean daytime wind chill values in the teens and 20s.  While New Englanders revert to the winter coat, hat and gloves, winter sports enthusiasts will revel in the new 3-5 feet of snow that’s fallen in Northern New England over the past week to 10 days, bringing some of the best conditions for skiing, boarding and snowmobiling, save for some possible lift holds due to gusty wind Friday and Saturday.  Saturday morning brings a quick-moving disturbance that will enhance the chilly air and also will deliver some scattered snow squalls to Northern New England early Saturday and a late morning or midday snow shower or flurry to Southern New England.  Thereafter, dry weather is expected to round out the weekend.  Next week starts fairly quiet and chilly, but a larger storm approaches by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.  This storm will be yet another one that reorganizes off the Eastern Seaboard, meaning the potential exists for yet another nor’easter.  It’s still early and there’s plenty of time to work out the details, but our exclusive, in-house guidance continues to show greater than 50% chance the storm impacts New England Tuesday night through Wednesday, with some plowable snow possible, particularly in Southern New England.  Suffice to say, we’ll be keeping a close eye on this one…though behind it, the weather should quiet in time for next weekend, when temperatures will at least reach the 40s – likely to be a welcome change after such a prolonged, cool March stretch.