Scattered Showers and Thunder As Cold Air Drifts Overhead

Blog1Incremental improvement has begun in our New England weather – yesterday’s rain has become today’s scattered showers and thunder after limited morning sun, and will transition to just a scattered sprinkle or light shower by Wednesday.  This afternoon’s showers come in response to a weak storm center diving southeast across New England, carrying a pool of cool air aloft that not only will produce healthy, puffy clouds that will fill the sky and drop multiple rounds of showers during the afternoon, but the cold sky also will lend itself to some ice in the cloud tops, and this means lightning is a possibility in stronger downpours, as well as small hail stones.  Although showers and downpours will be recurring, they will also remain scattered enough that no one area sees day-long rain like was seen Monday.  Showers end during mid-evening but the new moisture on the ground will create pockets of fog overnight tonight with clouds and fog breaking up Wednesday morning before new puffy clouds develop again, producing a sprinkle from time to time.  Thursday and Friday bring a marked warming trend into the 70s and even lower 80s by Friday, with the chance of some North Country scattered showers but nice days for most of New England.  Although a weak disturbance may bring some showers over the weekend – looking most likely Saturday evening through Sunday morning but still to be determined on exact timing – the weekend, overall, looks good – milder Saturday than Sunday.  If you’re looking for bona fide 80s, you need look no farther than our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Unsettled Start to the Week Persists Through Midweek

Blog1The heaviest rain to impact New England Monday morning tapers to showers and leftover drizzle...then eventually only lingering patches of fog by the overnight.  With cloudy skies and an onshore wind for much of the day, some communities will challenge or set new records for the coldest high temperature on this date, and a chilly day surely will lend itself to a raw overnight with lows in the 40s.  Tuesday should start mostly dry and some breaks of sun are possible during the middle to late morning, but new showers will erupt from late morning onward, filling in more as the day wears on, in response to an energetic disturbance diving southeast across New England.  After more fog develops overnight Tuesday night, Wednesday brings drier weather: an afternoon shower is still possible, but most of New England sees little more than a quick shower.  With a north-northeast wind, Wednesday highs will be capped in the 60s with 50s at the coast, but as the wind shifts Thursday into the weekend, temperatures will climb back into the 70s.  Couple the milder temperatures with some sunshine and we’ll be making noticeable progress heading into the weekend, even if a chance of showers lingers with the jet stream nearby.

Humid Air Poised to Move Into New England

Blog1Though clouds thicken enough over Connecticut and Western Massachusetts to bring some sprinkles and light rain showers by day’s end into the evening, most of New England enjoys a fabulous day with temperatures climbing to around 80, excepting the south-facing coasts and communities within about 40 miles of them, where cool ocean air is carried ashore on a southerly breeze.  Eventually, the persistent south wind brings increasing humidity to New England, evidenced by increasing overnight clouds, scattered showers, areas of fog and a sticky feeling slowly increasing through the night.  By Friday morning, the most humid air thus far this season will be setting up shop in New England, both south and north, with dew point temperatures climbing toward 70° - a very humid feeling.  The increased atmospheric moisture not only will be palpable, but will aid in producing scattered showers with an embedded downpour in the morning, then scattered thunder later in the day and evening as highs climb to around 80° with breaks of sun emerging from morning clouds and areas of fog.  Although a cold front passes through New England Friday night, humidity will linger Saturday for Southern New England, at least early, and scattered showers or thunder will probably crop up for some while drier air moves into the northern half of New England. That drier air – though quite cool – will be in place Sunday…while a large area of clouds, showers and cool temperatures seems likely to drift over the region for days starting Monday. Some brightening and warming returns by the end of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Humid Air to Slowly Approach New England

Blog1The air today is decidedly different in far Southern New England than it is elsewhere – a bit more humid – and this resulted in some South Coast fog early in the day. The difference in air comes as the product of a stalled frontal boundary, which will breed fair weather clouds today that may yield a few inland sprinkles by day’s end, but the vast majority of us enjoy a day accented by fair weather clouds and comfortable temperatures, coolest at the coast with an onshore, easterly wind.  Of course, a persistent onshore wind adds moisture to the air, so fog is likely to develop overnight tonight as the air cools, particularly in far Southern New England and near the South Coast, where fog will be especially thick.  Farther inland, a combination of fog and clouds will drift in, taking some time to burn off Thursday morning in communities impacted.  Much of Connecticut and Western Massachusetts will have only very limited sun Thursday as clouds lead to developing morning showers that will slowly nudge east during the day after temperatures rise into the 70s for most. Tropical Depression Alberto, meanwhile, is trudging into Canada to our west, but has spread diffuse moisture east, and this moisture will bring both increased humidity and developing showers and thunder on Friday.  As a new, weak storm center develops to our south this weekend, there’s no doubt a cooler, northeast wind will blow – the biggest question is how many showers linger and for how long. Right now, we’re expecting some morning showers Saturday, and hoping for a trend toward drier weather for most thereafter, though the farther southeast one is, the closer we’ll have to watch the setup.  Only modest moderation in temperature is expected next week.

A Day Late for Many, Summer-like Warmth Makes a Comeback

Blog1Although a day later than most New Englanders would have liked, summer-like sunshine has returned with temperatures soaring into the 80s.  A weak cold front will breed a few puffy clouds during the afternoon, and in CT, RI and Southeast MA it’s not impossible that a few of these puffy clouds may grow heavy enough to deposit a few, isolated showers or a rumble of thunder, but any such action will remain few and far between.  For the most part, a slightly sticky air in Southern New England will gradually be replaced this evening by drier air from the north, while sea breezes dance along the coastline during the afternoon.  Overnight tonight, patchy clouds and fog will develop but the air will slowly be drying out, giving way to a pleasant day of fair skies Wednesday, with most temperatures some ten to 15 degrees cooler than Tuesday.  To our southwest, Subtropical Depression Alberto is slowly nudging north through Alabama and by week’s end will be in Canada, passing to our west but dispersing at least some enhanced moisture east, meaning an increase in humidity Friday with a mounting chance of afternoon showers and thunder.  By Saturday, a new, weak storm center will develop south of New England, encouraging a cool northeast wind that will probably produce some continued showers, and even cooler air by Sunday, though it remains to be seen how much moisture would remain by that point.  Next week starts out cool in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast, then gradually moderates by midweek.

Summer Weather Starts the Holiday Weekend, Much Cooler to End It

LKN_MEMORIAL_DAY_4PARTA new, dry air has taken hold of most of New England Thursday, and with an onshore wind, temperatures at the coast remain coolest with highs in the 60s as opposed to 70s inland.  Partly cloudy skies overnight tonight come as warmer air begins moving in with an increasing southwest breeze, but the warmth really becomes apparent Friday, when sunshine, mixed only with some afternoon wispy clouds, pushes temperatures to nearly 90 degrees.  Cooler air never seems to be far away in this weather pattern, and the edge of our New England warmth will start to erode in Northern Maine Friday afternoon, sparking scattered strong thunderstorms in the Crown of Maine Friday.  By Saturday, the front edge of colder air – referred to as a cold front – will be sinking slowly south, meaning scattered showers and thunder will develop for more of New England, fuelled by an increasingly humid and continued warm summer-like air.  The approaching cold front swings through Saturday night, ushering in cooler air Sunday with a wind off the ocean that will mean plenty of clouds and some showers, particularly in the morning.  A continued onshore, cool wind flow will persist into Memorial Day, ensuring cool air holds on, but there’s the hope that enough dry air moves south from Canada to erode some of the showers, at least allowing them to be scattered and more infrequent Monday, providing some dry periods for Memorial Day observances.  The rest of next week looks mild in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day.

Temperature Swings Ahead As Front Wavers Over New England

Blog1Thickening clouds deliver pockets of light rain to New England today, and the lack of sunshine keeps temperatures from climbing much beyond 70 degrees – about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.  Although light rain will last through the afternoon and at least part of the evening in Southern New England, some of Central and Northern New England tapers earlier, by early evening, and Central/Northern Maine will see little rain at all.  Even in wettest locations of MA, CT and RI, total rain amounts will only be either side of a quarter inch.  Areas of fog will develop overnight as rain departs but the air remains moist, and pockets of fog and clouds will linger into Wednesday morning before burning off for a fantastic, fair day with highs nearing 80.  An approaching cold front will likely touch off scattered showers and thunder in Maine and Northern New Hampshire Wednesday afternoon, opening the door to cooler air that will settle into most of Eastern New England for a day Thursday.  The edge of this cool air – a frontal boundary – will stay near New England for several days ahead, but a strengthening southwest wind will at least push it northward for summer warmth to take hold of New England Friday and Saturday.  By later Saturday, the same cold front begins a southward sag again, raising the chance for afternoon thunder in Northern New England and raising the chance of showers for all of New England on Sunday.  Of course, behind the cold front would be cooler air that arrives at some point Sunday and into Memorial Day – if the air is cool and dry enough, showers will wind down in time for Memorial Day, but it’s too early to say for sure.  Thereafter, pleasant weather is expected toward the end of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

A Nearly Perfect Monday Ahead of More Temperature Swings

Blog1Today is about as close to New England perfection as the weather comes – dry air, abundant sunshine and high temperatures in the 70s.  With the fantastic weather comes a high UV index (don’t forget the sunscreen) and the air can dry the body out a bit, so hydration is important.  In the North Country, a busy wind from the west-northwest increases brush fire danger with gusts over 30 mph, while the wind is lighter farther south, where an afternoon sea breeze may kick up right along the coast.  As high pressure moves overhead, then east of New England, the door will open to moisture from the west, producing Monday showers in Chicago and set to bring increasing clouds to New England Monday night into Tuesday morning, and Tuesday afternoon showers that will last through Tuesday night, holding temperatures down a bit as a result.  By Wednesday, sunshine returns and temperatures respond by rising back into the 70s.  Although a quick shot of cool air is possible in Eastern New England on a northeast wind Thursday, the general trend heading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend will be for warming: highs should reach the 80s Friday and Saturday!  The only catch to this summery holiday weekend forecast is the jet stream will be nearby – keep in mind the jet stream is the fast river of air high in the sky that steers disturbances in the atmosphere – and this means an increasing chance of showers and thunder.  Saturday evening may bring some scattered storms, particularly in northern and western New England, Sunday will likely bring showers and storms with humid air, and Memorial Day has a 45% chance of showers lingering, according to our exclusive forecast system, so there’s still a chance the showers ship out in time.

Saturday and Sunday Both Bring Showers, But Very Different Air

Blog1A large dome of high pressure – fair weather – is flexing its muscle over Eastern Canada today, pressing enough dry air into New England to keep rain safely south of us, though some clouds continue riding overhead at high altitudes, dimming the sun over Southern New England at times.  All the while, a northeast wind not only is carrying cool air southward from Canada, but also is moving across ocean water that is only in the lower 50s, meaning Friday’s warmest air temperature won’t exceed the 50s near the coast and 60s inland.  Cool overnight temperatures Friday night will tumble into the 40s for most, but 30s in Northern New England, where a frost and freeze is a potential even as clouds gradually thicken overhead.  Saturday will dawn dry for most, though rain will be advancing northeast across Connecticut between 6 and 8 AM, then the Boston area between 10 and Noon, not reaching Portland, ME, until mid-afternoon.  Once the rain starts, it’ll keep temperatures cool and fall lightly, perhaps with an occasional burst of moderate rain in Western New England. This may not cancel all outdoor plans but will keep them damp, for sure. Sunday brings a totally different air with humidity increasing, breaks of sun driving temperatures well into the 70s and an approaching cold front triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon.  Behind the front, Monday should be lovely, and aside from the chance of a few midweek showers, most of next week into Memorial Day Weekend is looking good in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast with slowly rising temperatures.

Changeable Air Ahead for New England

Blog1The air has completely changed across New England from yesterday, as a northeast wind is sweeping across the region, carrying cool and dry air from Canada.  Aloft, the same feed of southern moisture that contributed to Tuesday’s thunderstorms hasn’t totally departed, which is why high-altitude clouds continue to obscure the sun.  The southern stream of moisture is sending small storm centers rippling along yesterday’s severe weather producing cold front, now situated over the waters south of New England, and blossoms of rain mostly miss but will graze Southern New England later Wednesday evening and overnight, bringing some light showers to Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts.  Most of this moisture retreats again Thursday, allowing for no more than an isolated shower in Southern New England with a light and variable wind that will allow temperatures to rise into the 70s for most.  Friday brings the return of an onshore wind, meaning another cool day with lots of clouds and showers approaching from the south, eventually giving way to a cool rain Saturday.  If all goes as planned, Sunday sees only scattered showers, meaning some breaks of sun and highs riding into the 70s.  Some changeable temperatures lay ahead next week, but generally we should run warmer than normal for the latter half of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.