MATTNOYES.NET - NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANALYSIS

Close shave on Cape Cod, Islands, to deliver up to 2" overnight Wednesday night

A storm mostly missing New England to the south after moving through the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic will graze the South Coast overnight Wednesday night on the northern edge of its precipitation shield, delivering light snow and flurries as far north as extreme southern Plymouth County, MA, and a fluffy one to two inches of snow from Chatham to Nantucket.

What a difference - after an exceptional year of snow, this season on pace to be one of the least snowy

The deeper through winter we go, the more I'm amazed at the difference between last year and this year.  Of course, many have raised questions to me about whether this is the result of global climate change, and I give the same advice/guidance to people on both sides of the issue: you simply cannot use one season, or even ten years, to make a case for climate change.  So, whether you're a firm believer that our climate is going to resume warming, or you're a firm believer that this is all part of longer natural cycles, you are standing on statistically invalid ground to use only one season, or even worse, one weather event as sometimes is done, to make your case.

With that in mind, let's take a moment to appreciate the breathtaking, extraordinary LACK of snow so far in the 2011/2012 season in New England.

BOSTON, MA:

• Last Year on this date:  70.7"
• Normal on this date:  24.2"
• So far this year:  6.8"


WORCESTER, MA:

• Last Year on this date:  74.6"
• Normal on this date:  35.0"
• So far this year:  13.9"


HARTFORD, CT:

• Last Year on this date:  77.9"
• Normal on this date:  22.4"
• So far this year:  6.8"


PROVIDENCE, RI:

• Last Year on this date:  46.6"
• Normal on this date:  19.6"
• So far this year:  10.7"


CONCORD, NH:

• Last Year on this date:  56.0"
• Normal on this date:  35.4"
• So far this year:  10.8"


PORTLAND, ME:

• Last Year on this date:  53.3"
• Normal on this date:  35.2"
• So far this year:  21.6"


BURLINGTON, VT:

• Last Year on this date:  78.7"
• Normal on this date:  42.6"
• So far this year:  21.1"

An excellent follow-up question is: how close are we to setting a record for least snowy winter?  The answer varies by location, but many Northern New England cities have seen enough snow to keep them safely away from this dubious distinction.  In Southern New England, however, and particularly Boston, the current pace would put winter of 2011/2012 in the handful of least snowy winters, if the current pattern continues.  Notice in the image below, that we're currently at least snowy winter ever, but there is still a lot of the snow season left.  Nonetheless, snow season runs from December 1 through March, and we're looking at 6.8" halfway through the season - putting us on pace for 13.6" which, as you can see below, would rank as fourth least snow on record.  Nonetheless, there's a long way to go, so at this point it's more of a feature item rather than a scientific consideration.

 

Photo: Full "Snow Moon" illuminates New England

There may not be any snow beneath it, but this great photo of the full "Snow Moon" was snapped Tuesday night by Brian MacLean (@Bri9801) and sent via Twitter.  Thanks to all of you who submit photos regularly, and a reminder that there are so many ways to do it - to my Facebook Page, to my Twitter account, or via the Sky Scenes Flickr.com photo sharing group.

8 to 14 Day Forecast: Most of Eastern U.S. to turn colder next week, above normal precipitation - New England may be exempt from both

Another Monday evening meant another look at the 8-14 Day Forecast to preview Week Two - February 14 to February 20.  First, a quick look at last week's prediction, which was for below normal temperatures in the February 7-13 stretch.  Though February 6 was much above normal regionwide, if the current 7-day forecast verifies, including a cold blast this upcoming weekend, the 7-13 timeframe should indeed verify as below normal.  Will hope for the best for verification's sake.  With regard to the 2/14-2/20 timeframe, the jet stream is expected to dip southward through the Eastern United States during this period, opening the eastern half of the nation to intrusions of cold from Canada, while a ridge will hold firm in the west, meaning warmer than normal conditions should persist there.

Meanwhile, the southward dip in the jet stream will also mean an opportunity to phase the northern and southern streams sooner than has been the case lately, implying a storm may tap the Gulf of Mexico and bring significant precipitation to the East.  Though this very well may mean snow for the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, it's yet to be determined the setup for New England.  In fact, there is a possibility that the primary low center cuts into New York State, which would allow for snow/mix in Northern New England, but a warmer and less moist solution central and south.  At this point, it's early to speak with certainty on fine details like this, so the wisest move is to indicate above-normal precipitation on the cold (and therefore, likely snowy) side of the storm, as well as the areas where heavy rain seems likely (I-95 corridor of Mid-Atlantic/Southeast) but hedge near-normal in Central and Southern New England, where the final outcome is a bit more uncertain.

In what is historically a stormy period for New England, first full week of February to be uneventful for Northeast

The first 7-10 days of February historically bring one of the highest probabilities of snowstorms for New England, but the Winter of 2011/12 will, once again, fail to produce.  On Monday night's NECN 9 PM, 10 and midnight broadcasts, I outlined the expectation of an above to much above normal temperature regime for most of the United States, with the possible exception of New England.  Thursday night, we examined the brutal and deadly cold that has gripped most of the remainder of the globe.  To wrap up the week, Friday night brought this - an examination of the jet stream pattern that is prohibiting East Coast storm development during the climatologically most active time of the year for the Northeast.  A "split flow" is in place across the Lower 48 - that is, a separation of the polar jet stream to the north, and the subtropical jet stream to the south.  The polar jet stream holds cold air to its north, and transports cold, energetic disturbances, often originating in high latitudes and dropping south.  The subtropical jet stream holds warm, tropical air to its south, and transports moisture and moisture-laden energetic disturbances.  For large storms to form, these streams must "phase," or come together, to combine northern energy and cold with southern energy, warmth and moisture.  Without the combination of these factors, it's very difficult to get a sizeable storm, and in a split flow, these separate jet stream winds are unable to phase.  So, snow lovers should be looking for the next opportunity for phasing, which doesn't look to happen through February 10, though notice in the second image, representing the jet stream pattern by week's end, there actually *is* phasing along the East Coast, but by the time the streams phase, any resultant storm would already be zipping off the coast.  What we'll need to watch for is if this area of phasing backs westward just a bit next weekend or toward the middle of the month.

Though New England and the U.S. are quite warm, much of the globe plunges into winter chill

In New England, and through much of the United States, folks are pondering the lack of intense cold and snow that has befallen the Lower 48 states through December and January.  Monday night on NECN, I shared with you my expectation of above to much above normal temperatures for most of the country in the month of February (excepting Northern New England below normal, and perhaps Southern New England near normal), but Thursday night it seemed only right to focus on the opposite - cold air.  Believe it or not, most of the world outside of the United States is colder than normal, and that cold has become deadly for many.  I cover the latest developments world-wide in the video below, and give the meteorological explanation, tied to my February forecast for colder air in Northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes.

A few other interesting statistics before the video:

• Preliminary numbers for January from Earth Systems Science Center at the University of Alabama Huntsville show the world was .16 degrees Farenheit below the 30-year mean, the Northern Hemisphere was .11 degrees below the mean, and the Southern Hemisphere was .23 degrees below average.
• February is expected to bring much above normal temperatures to a large portion of the United States.
• The world forecast for February is for another colder than normal month.

February monthly forecast shows above normal temperatures for most of the U.S. - but perhaps not New England

One of the most common questions I've been asked pertains to how February's weather pattern is looking.  On Tuesday night's NECN News at 9 PM, 10 and midnight, I answered that question.  After a warm December and January in New England, and a significant dearth of snow, winter-lovers are aching for a strong finish while winter-haters are hoping to slide through the remainder of the season unscathed.  The first day of February brought exceptional warmth to most of the United States, with record warm temperatures from Michigan to Nebraska to the Mid-Atlantic and New England.  Across the globe, however, record cold temperatures were recorded in Europe, Asia, Russia and Africa as cold expands south.  Meanwhile, intense cold remains bottled up in Alaska - the only colder-than-normal area in the North American continent.

Cold air in Europe and Russia represents a large trough serving as a pool of cold air across the globe.  In meteorology, we look for wave patterns across the world in the jet stream winds (the "westerlies") - the fast-flowing river of air high in the sky that steers storms and acts as a thermostat for the atmosphere.  A large trough, or dip, over Europe and Russia is followed by a ridge of warmth in Southeast Asia, a trough of cold over Alaska, and a ridge of warmth over the United States.  This pattern is incomplete - there is a missing component over the Atlantic, which is likely to complete heading into February - a trough in the Canadian Maritimes and Western Atlantic, and a ridge in the Eastern Atlantic.  This would mean cold air surging into the Maritimes during February, and likely resulting in a swath of cold air across Northern New England, dumping into the Atlantic Canada/Western Atlantic trough.  As a result, I'm forecasting below normal temperatures in Northern New England.  The remainder of New England probably won't linger under this swath of cold, but will be close enough to experience oscillations of warmth from the continental U.S. ridge, and cold from the Maritimes trough.

As for precipitation, this isn't a favorable pattern for above normal precipitation in the northeast, overall.  The best opportunity comes on the backside of cold surges, when warmth returning northeast collides with the departing cold.  Therefore, bursts of snow are quite possible, but larger storms will hinge upon a favorable setup of lingering cold and incoming warmth/moisture, which seem most likely around mid-month (16th/17th) and again toward month's end (25th/26th).

Black ice and fog require extra Wednesday AM caution for Boston area through New Hampshire, Maine coastline

Though all eyes are on the record warmth across the majority of the Lower 48, and spilling into New England, there is a subtle but very important feature in the Gulf of Maine that poses a travel headache for Eastern New England - including the Boston area - Wednesday morning.  That feature is a small area of low pressure - a small scale storm center - off the Maine coastline.  Because wind turns counter-clockwise around storm center, this has prompted a northeast wind in the wake of the small storm, meaning a surge of cold air pressed southward through Southeast New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts Tuesday night.  Of course, this surge of cold comes at the same time the large-scale weather pattern favors carrying warmth into New England, as was evidenced by record-warm high temperatures for some on Tuesday afternoon.  The collision of warmth moving northward, and cold moving southward, creates a swath of cool but moist air in Eastern Massachusetts through Southeast New Hampshire into Southern and coastal Maine Monday night through early Tuesday morning, resulting in two phenomena: 1) fog, and 2) black ice.  Though both will occur in pockets, the former can be quite dense in this type of setup, restricting visibility for drivers, and the latter can require road treatment, though rock salt should do the trick for most spots.  Nonetheless, I'd encourage caution and extra time for the Wednesday morning drive - especially early commuters - in these eastern areas.

Record warmth swarms the Eastern United States

Warm air expanded into the Northeast on Tuesday, setting records in several communities.  Nationally, record warmth was recorded Tuesday from Michigan to New England, to Washington DC, to South Dakota.

 

 

 

In the Northeast, alone, records were set in a number of cities:

• Washington, DC - 66 degrees (old record 65, from 1993)
• Georgetown DE - 63 degrees (60, 1974)
• Islip, NY - 55 degrees (51, 1988)
• Bridgeport, CT - 54 degrees (53, 1974)
• Martha's Vineyard, MA - 53 degrees (52, 1974)
• Ithaca, NY - 58 degrees (56, 1947)
• Roanoke, VA - 68 degrees (68, 1974)
• Lynchburg, VA - 68 degrees (68, 1916)
• Taunton, MA - 55 degrees (ties 55, 1974)
• Binghamton, NY - 54 degrees (ties 54, 1974)
• Atlantic City NJ 63 (ties 63, 1988)

8 to 14 Day Forecast: The return of colder than normal temperatures for the Northeast

The big take-away point of the Week Two (8-14 day) forecast I aired on NECN Monday at 9 PM, 10 and midnight, is a return of colder than normal temperatures next week.  A jet stream "trough," or dip, develops in the Eastern United States next week - particularly for the middle and end of the week - and this should usher colder than normal air south out of Canada, while much of the remainder of the nation stays warmer than normal.

The jet stream winds aloft will be defined by two distinct streams - an energetic northern stream that will likely deliver lake effect and lake enhanced snow to the Great Lakes region, and a southern stream that will bring much needed rain to Texas and Florida.  The question is whether those two streams "phase," or merge, near the East Coast.  I'm banking on that happening, hence the forecast for above normal precipitation in the Southeast US, but the exact track farther north is in question.  If you look closely, I've indicated Southern New England just barely in the above normal category, which essentially indicates I'm hedging/weighting toward a storm track that may carry a storm up the Eastern Seaboard the weekend of February 11/12.