Scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening didn’t hit many communities, but developed along a cold front crossing New England, carrying air that truly is no cooler, but is tangibly less humid, into New England. The result on our Father’s Day is summer warmth into the 80s and near 90 degrees, but no significant humidity except Cape Cod and communities near the South Coast of New England, where some stickiness continues as the cold front has stalled. After a day of sun, summer warmth and a southwest breeze creating only a one to two foot chop on our waters for boaters, the stalled front to our south will start a trip northward as a warm front, may touch off an evening or night shower or thunderstorm from the Berkshires to the Green Mountains and Monadnock region, and carries increasing humidity. The increase in moisture will promote fog development on Cape Cod Sunday night into Monday morning, and will make for a hazy, hot and humid Monday regionwide with high temperatures around and over 90 for all but those within about 20 miles of a south-facing coast, where the south wind blows across ocean waters. Tropical Depression Claudette is located over the Southeast U.S. Sunday morning and is predicted to track over the Carolinas and into the Atlantic, strengthening to Tropical Storm strength again Monday as it encounters the warm Gulf Stream water of the West Atlantic, passing southeast of Nantucket early Tuesday morning with 50 mph wind, but the wind will be on the southeast side of the storm, over water, and the rain will remain confined near the storm. The indirect impact of Claudette on New England will be increasing ocean swell with offshore waves of five to eight feet Tuesday into early Wednesday, and this could create rip currents at our beaches. On land, strong thunder in Northern and Western New England Monday evening and night indicates the approach of a cold front that will likely create scattered showers and thunder Tuesday, then leaves some fantastic, fresh air Wednesday through Friday. Early indications for next weekend is we may set up a pattern with a south wind through a deep layer of the atmosphere - if that happens, we turn quite humid and warm, but may get some clean tropical air from the Bahamas with beautiful blue sky between bubbling clouds, showers and storms. We’ll keep you posted in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
Quick-hitting Saturday morning showers marked the leading edge to humidity moving into New England, and all of the six-state region will feel that humidity for awhile Saturday afternoon with temperatures jumping into the upper 80s and even touching 90 degrees in a few spots. Although it’ll feel like it should storm - and a few storms will develop from the mountains of NH and ME and carry out of the mountains during the afternoon and early evening, most communities avoid storms until an increasing chance between 6 and 11 PM Saturday evening, from west to east and especially focused south of the MA Turnpike. Some showers and rumbles of thunder will continue into the first part of the overnight in Southern New England, ending by Father’s Day Sunday morning for a bright day of varied humidity - sticky near the South Coast and in Southeast MA, less humid in Central and Northern New England. While Sunday afternoon to evening brings a slight chance of an isolated storm, the vast majority of us are unlikely to find any showers and storms, meaning most of us end up with a warm but spectacular day for golf, grilling and outdoor guests! Heat, haze and humidity are the theme Monday with highs into the 90s and a heat index in the middle 90s except communities within about 25 miles of South-facing coasts, where wind off the water holds temperatures below 90. Tropical Storm Claudette passes southeast of Nantucket early Tuesday, raising the wave height in swell along our coasts Monday afternoon to Wednesday morning, but unlikely to deliver many other direct impacts, except to increase the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, increasing an already existent chance of showers and thunder Tuesday. Fair weather settles in Wednesday through Friday, with warmth, humidity and scattered summer storms returning next weekend in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
Another day of sunny splendor is unfolding across New England, still courtesy of a large area of high pressure – fair weather – building over the Eastern Seaboard. With a weakening prevailing wind by Thursday afternoon, sea breezes will kick up for our beaches, capping temperatures in the middle to upper 70s before easing back a few degrees late in the day, while the interior rises to near 80. Either way, plentiful sunshine so close to the summer solstice – our strongest sun angle of the year – means the UV index will be very high to extreme and sunburns can occur in short order, so sunscreen is suggested for one and all! Ocean waves of only a foot in most spots make for a great boating day as water temperatures remain in the lower 60s along our eastern shore but have risen to the middle 60s for the bays and sounds around Cape Cod and along the South Coast. Expect another cool night Thursday night – probably not as cool as the night prior, but 40s in Northern, Central and Western New England with 50s for many others. Yet again, dry air will warm quickly on Friday under lots of sun and a few late day wispy clouds, hitting 80 to 85 degrees for most Friday afternoon as a west and southwest wind opens the door to warmer air. While New England certainly won’t get into the deep, all-time record setting heat in place over the Western U.S., to get even a small, moderated piece of this air will mean a noticeable increase in temperature and humidity on Saturday. In fact, on the leading edge of that incoming push of warmth and humidity, some showers are possible Friday overnight into Saturday morning. Here in New England, often heat is suppressed by cooler and drier Canadian air, and this weekend will be no exception – a cold front charging southeast out of Canada will trigger new scattered showers and thunderstorms from midday onward in Northern New England, and during the afternoon into evening in Central and Southern New England, feeding off high temperatures well into the 80s and the increased humidity. The new air behind Saturday’s cold front won’t be cold…or even cool…but it will be less humid for Father’s Day and that drives down the chance of showers or thunder for what likely will be a dry and wonderful summer day. Early next week our exclusive 10-day forecast shows heat and humidity rebuilding, elevating the chance of scattered showers and thunder again, before another swing to more comfortable air happens for the middle and end of the week. The early expectation for next weekend is returning heat and humidity with scattered storms possible again.
Another day of unsettled weather Tuesday comes courtesy of the same large, strong upper level storm that prompted a few severe thunderstorm warnings in New England and Upstate New York Monday. Tuesday is likely to bring renewed isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind, but far more communities may not be impacted by severe storms – defined as damaging wind or large hail – but still will receive torrential downpours and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. While there are government warnings issued for severe storms, lightning is not enough to trigger such a warning, so the phrase “when thunder roars, go indoors” serves us well today as a reminder if we hear thunder, we are close enough for the storm for lightning to be a threat and should seek shelter inside. While our forecast necessarily highlights the expected scattered downpours and thunder, it’s worth noting more hours of the day will be dry rather than wet in any given New England community, it’s just that, for the most part, when it rains it pours. Thunderstorms taper early Tuesday night as a cold front crosses the area with clearing on the heels of the disintegrating showers as dry, comfortable air takes hold with overnight lows as cool as the 40s by dawn Wednesday in the North Country and 50s elsewhere. Meanwhile, just over 200 miles to the southeast of Nantucket, Tropical Storm Bill - which formed off the coast of the Carolinas Monday - is chugging northeast while slowly strengthening. It looks like Bill has strengthened too late and is moving too quickly to deliver substantial waves to New England, but swell will build to three feet later Tuesday into Wednesday and rip currents are possible on some beaches. With plenty of sun Wednesday, save for some bubbling clouds and perhaps a few showers in Northern Maine, temperatures will climb to between 75 and 80 degrees ahead of a large area of high pressure, or fair weather, that will continue to deliver delightful air and sunshine Thursday into Friday, though Friday’s wind starts to blow from the southwest, meaning the temperature will climb into the 80s once again. Mid-summer heat and humidity makes a return Saturday with an elevated chance of afternoon thunder Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front that will lower the humidity, the temperature and the chance of thunder for Father’s Day but still deliver Sunday high temperatures around or over 80 degrees. Warmth and humidity likely builds again early next week with another chance of afternoon thunder Monday and especially Tuesday, but even as the humidity bounces up and down in the exclusive First Alert 10-day the temperature seems likely to remain at or above 80 degrees most afternoons next week.
As a strong upper level disturbance drops southeast from Canada through the Eastern Great Lakes and into New England, an unsettled couple of days are setting up for our six state region. With an early round of downpours and thunder already through most of Central and Southern New England, humidity has increased slightly but an abundance of clouds will keep daytime temperatures from warming too much – which works well for New England because it limits the threat for severe weather Monday afternoon, leaving downpours with occasional embedded lightning the biggest impact. The problem is, with increasing moisture in the atmosphere, the downpours can drop copious amounts of rain in short-order, observed already in parts of Western Massachusetts Monday morning where 1.25” of rain fell in only 50 minutes! As new downpours and storms erupt during the afternoon into the evening, they’ll stay clustered, meaning not everyone gets rain at once, with Cape Cod and Islands as well as Eastern ME picking up the least during the day, but in the mountains and hills, heavy rain can runoff quickly and may result in localized flash flooding later Monday into the evening, particularly across the hills and mountains of Western New England. Monday night a round of severe storms will eject east from Upstate New York and Northern Pennsylvania – the northern edge of a large severe weather outbreak in the mid-Atlantic – and may survive as strong thunder into western CT before gradually weakening to downpours and embedded thunder while riding east across Southern New England overnight Monday night. Tuesday brings more showers, downpours and thunder, but with some breaks of sun the temperature will rise to the upper 70s and with increasing humidity this all adds up to an increased chance for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind, along with frequent lightning and heavy rain for localized flash flooding again. Any outdoor plans Monday and Tuesday should include a plan for if and when rain and thunder threaten, and remember – “when thunder roars, go indoors!” If you can hear thunder, you’re close enough for lightning to be a danger and should seek shelter inside. A cold front Tuesday evening and night delivers a drier, new air Wednesday that will deliver great weather for the middle and end of the week, save perhaps for a late Wednesday thunderstorm in the Crown of Maine. Warmth and humidity builds at the end of the week, sending high temperatures to between 85 and 90 degrees by Saturday with a chance of scattered afternoon and evening thunder, with temperatures in the 80s expected again Sunday with a decreasing chance of thunder. Temperatures should hover near 80 early next week at the end of the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.