To view my daily text and video forecast, click here! To download my personal weather app, or either of the NBC or NECN station apps, click here. Although Friday dawned with temperatures warm enough for raindrops for nearly all of New England, some far northern communities along the Canadian border were cold enough to already observe a combination of rain and snow falling lightly, including Newport, VT. This is just the beginning of a trend for rain to change to snow and colder air to stream into New England in conjunction with a storm center developing over the waters just east of New England along a slow-moving but well-defined cold front drifting from west to east. For most, rain expanding Friday will continue to fall lightly but steadily through much of the day, not raising any problems with flooding by any means, but slowing travel on the roads and making for soggy Black Friday shopping. Winds will stay fairly light through the day, but start increasing from the west as the aforementioned storm intensifies while moving over the Gulf of Maine late in the day into Friday evening, carrying colder air into New England both at the surface and aloft. With the cold air arriving high in the sky first, mountain summits start piling up snow first, but the snow level drops in altitude during Friday afternoon, eventually reaching valley floors of Northern New England by sundown and continuing to march slowly south and east Friday evening, affording a mix with and change to snow even for Northern CT to the Boston Metro area during the evening to first part of the night. In Northern New England, the heavy, wet nature of the snow may deliver some power outages where accumulations exceed four inches, which is expected in and around many of the mountains of VT, NH and ME, and roads will deteriorate for winter driving conditions. Snow will have trouble sticking to roadways in Southern New England coming off a day of high temperatures in the 40s and with air temperatures barely reaching freezing overnight Friday night, but in places where two or more inches of snow falls on the grass, that’s enough ice crystals dropped on the road to result in some greasy, slushy snow on roads, which likely will include the Monadnock Region and may include northwest Worcester County…and perhaps parts of Southern NH. In Eastern MA, even if snow melts on roads, the wet roads may turn just cold enough by 5 or 6 AM Saturday for patchy ice as air temperatures drop. The cold air Saturday will hold daytime highs shy of 40 degrees for most, and a west wind gusting to 35 mph will keep the wind chill in the 20s for even the warmest time of the day, making sunshine ineffective as mountain snow showers continue. The wind eases Sunday but the air should be equally cold and sun will fade behind increasing clouds as an energetic disturbance approaches aloft. This disturbance is one that was eyed for possible storm development along our coast this past week, but continues to look flat enough and fast enough to preclude fast enough storm development, instead likely to bring some light snow to Upstate NY and PA Sunday, then some snow or mixed snow and rain showers to New England overnight Sunday night into Monday. Cool air is expected to linger through most of the week, not breaking until the end of the week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
To view today's daily forecast video and text, click here! Blog post:
Timing is everything and Thanksgiving 2021 found time on our side in New England: if we’re going to get one day of high temperatures in the 50s with a fair sky it might as well be on the holiday! Now our attention turns to much colder air and what will be a busy weather pattern in the days ahead. A sharp, well-defined cold front marching east across the Ohio Valley is carrying a broad band of rain ahead of the change in air and a big drop in temperatures behind the associated wind shift. While New England stays far enough ahead of this front on Thanksgiving Day, clouds increase Thursday evening and thicken Thursday night, with showers moving east out of New York State overnight into predawn Friday. Rain showers Friday morning will ramp up to a round of steady rain for several hours across New England, but colder air will move in aloft first, then in lower elevations, meaning a mix with and change to snow is expected from mountaintop to valley in Northern New England Friday afternoon into evening, from northwest to southeast. Central and Southern New England are more likely to find the rain breaking into scattered showers before colder air really takes hold, but certainly some scattered snow showers or a few heavier snow bursts are within the realm of possibility which is why we’re predicting a coating of snow on the grass possible where snow showers hit as far south as the Massachusetts Turnpike Friday evening, but the better chance of a coating to an inch will be found in the Monadnock Region and Lakes Region of NH, with two to four inches in the Green and White Mountain Valleys into Maine north of the Maine Turnpike, then four to eight inches in the higher terrain of the North Country where snow not only lasts well into Friday night but persists in some mountain locales into Saturday! Thanksgiving often can serve as the gateway to opening the winter sports season in Northern New England, and this may be the case, at least in the short term, this year, as we don’t expect to find much melting over the weekend. Even outside of the mountain snow bursts Saturday, cold air will be firmly in place for all of New England with high temperatures struggling to get to 40 degrees in even the warmest communities and a stiff west wind cranking wind chills down below 30 at the warmest time of the day and into the single digits both Saturday morning and night for the North Country! Sunday the wind relaxes but cold air lingers and this will mean if precipitation moves in, there should be more snow than raindrops. That said, exactly how much snow moves in is yet to be determined – what our First Alert Team knows is a very strong, energetic disturbance will move over the Northeast at the jet stream level. This is very likely to induce snow showers Sunday over New York and Pennsylvania, and very likely to bring at least some snow or snow and rain showers to New England Sunday evening to night. The key here is how quickly a new storm develops in response to the energetic disturbance – if it happens quickly and near the coast, accumulating snow falls in New England, all the way into the Boston to Providence corridor. If the disturbance aloft is able to shift east quickly enough, new storm development will be over the ocean, meaning snow showers will be the worst of it Sunday evening and night, with a much more limited impact on return travel and a return to a normal routine Monday morning. Our First Alert Team will keep you posted in the coming days. Either way, expect chilly air to stick around most of next week, even as we find a break between disturbances for quieter weather.