We’re starting a new workweek that, overall, will bring fairly quiet weather to New England. Of course, there are always subtle and interesting features along the way, plus we’re eyeing a Thursday disturbance likely to deliver both snow and rain to the six state region. Sunshine kicks off the week, though the dry air responsible for the bright sky is also cool in nature, bleeding southeast out of Canada on a light but steady westerly breeze that will couple with highs around 40 to hold wind chill values in the 30s at the warmest time of day. After a quick and weak disturbance carries variable clouds and perhaps a few flurries through New England overnight Monday night, Tuesday should be a virtual repeat of Monday with sunshine, a light but steady breeze and equally cool temperatures. The wind will shift Wednesday in advance of a Thursday disturbance, but continued dry weather and at least some limited sun will help temperatures to bump near 50 degrees. Cooling Wednesday night will set the stage for both rain and snow showers Thursday and while it’s early to speak with any certainty, chances are good any rain/snow line sets up from Western to Central New England and retreats northward from there during the day Thursday as a strengthening southerly wind drives mild air northward. The quick-moving disturbance should be gone by Friday, leaving mountain snow showers and bursts in its wake with little more than some stubborn clouds for the rest of us, leading into a dry and pleasant weekend with daytime high temperatures eventually settling into the 50s by early next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
The leading edge of warmer and more moist air – called a warm front in the world of meteorology – moved through New England with some showers and even a few thunderstorms Friday morning, opening the door to a day of gusty southerly wind to 45 for some, and temperatures rising to around 60 for many. Although the warmth won’t last long with an approaching cold front moving east from New York State later Friday, it’s warm enough to raise concern through Saturday for ice jams on smaller Northern New England rivers, particularly in Vermont, where melting ice may break into chunks and become lodged at bends or bridges on their way downstream. Elsewhere, Friday showers should wane during the evening as they consolidate to Southeast New England, where rain will finally end overnight as partial clearing moves in. Saturday brings a gusty wind again, this time a cooling wind from the west that will hold temperatures near 50 degrees from start to finish, with cooler temperatures in the mountains where snow showers will start the weekend. As dry and cool air continues to spill into New England, sunshine is expected for St. Patrick’s Day Sunday, though high temperatures near 40 will combine with a steady breeze to hold wind chill values in the 30s at the warmest time of day. Next week looks seasonable as we cross the threshold to 12 hours of daylight on Monday while missing a weak storm to the south, then astronomical spring starts Wednesday evening, coincident with a possible disturbance that could deliver a few showers…otherwise next week looks seasonable in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
A weak disturbance Wednesday night will mark the passage of a warm front – the leading edge to new, milder air – through New England. On the front edge of the new air, the collision of antecedent cool air and the new warmth will likely snow showers in Northern New England accumulating a coating to one inch and perhaps a scattered snow shower from late evening to just past midnight in Southern New England. With limited impact from any Wednesday night snow showers for most of us, attention will turn to the milder southerly wind taking hold Thursday, bumping temperatures to around and over 50 degrees, even if the clash of incoming warmth with retreating cold results in mostly cloudy skies. With no focused atmospheric disturbance Thursday, clouds are unlikely to produce much in the way of rain, but Friday’s approach of a cold front from the west will prompt development of scattered rain showers, even as high temperatures reach 60 degrees. Though not expanding rapidly in heavy rain, you’ll notice potholes in New England roadways slowly opening wider this week, and that will accelerate a bit on Friday, just in time for the weekend, though weekend weather will be fairly benign with dry and pleasant conditions expected Saturday and colder, brisk, but bright weather on Saint Patrick’s Day. The big South Boston St. Paddy’s Day parade will air live Sunday on NECN and looks to be sunny and cool with temperatures in the lower 40s and wind chill values in the 30s. Next week features the first day of spring in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, when we could see some showers with seasonable temperatures likely.
A fresh shot of cool and dry air from Canada Tuesday has made a noticeable difference for New Englanders since Monday, knocking temperatures down by 5-10 degrees and the wind chill down by as much as 10-15 degrees, meaning wind chill values around 30 for many. The new air is dry, so after a disturbance that delivered up to 10 inches of Monday night snow to the mountains and variable Tuesday morning clouds to Southern New England departs, increasing sun will make for a bright afternoon with gradual melting resuming across the region. Temperatures will dip below freezing Tuesday night, meaning melted snow on back roads and sidewalks will refreeze for patchy black ice, before rebounding into the 40s Wednesday with renewed gradual melting. A meaningful surge of warmer and more moist air arrives overnight Wednesday night, possibly delivering some disorganized mixed showers of rain and snow on the way in, resulting in limited if any impact but opening the door to a new, southerly wind. As warmth streams into New England Thursday and Friday, temperatures will rise into the 50s and 60s, respectively, even with increasing moisture producing more clouds Thursday and rain showers from time to time Friday, particularly later in the day. A cold front passing Friday night will focus showers before delivering drier air Saturday with some measured cooling, but still a pleasant day, before cooler air returns daytime highs to the lower 40s and upper 30s for Saint Patrick’s Day, with a busy breeze holding wind chill values in the 20s and 30s but bright sunshine and dry conditions for the big South Boston Parade to be broadcast on NECN. Although seasonable air is in the forecast next week in the First Alert 10-day forecast, we’ll watch a low but present chance for storminess around the middle of the week.