Pleasant Air Takes Hold of New England

BLOG1A large dome of high pressure – fair weather – is building into the Northeast and while that usually means a stretch of bright and fabulous weather, there are a few subtle features that make our predicted weather just a bit different this time around.  One thing is for sure: new, less humid and pleasant air is streaming into New England and promises a great feeling in the air Wednesday into the weekend.  An upper level disturbance moving through New England’s sky this morning is delivering variable clouds and a few sprinkles from west to east, and may even bring a shower or thunderstorm to southwest Connecticut by day’s end. Otherwise, the new air holds temperatures shy of 80 for nearly all communities not only today…but Thursday and Friday, as well.  By Friday, a persistent though weak onshore wind flow will have introduced enough ocean moisture that, not only will we see clouds battling against the sun as we do Wednesday and Thursday, but clouds may actually win out Friday, with some morning drizzle or sprinkles even a possibility near the coast.  In Northern and Western New England, both Thursday and Friday may bring isolated thunder until Saturday the chance grows higher in these communities.  Farther east, though a Saturday afternoon shower isn’t impossible, they also aren’t likely.  By Sunday, the wind direction changes and we open the door to deep summer warmth again, with highs in the 80s Sunday, then around 90 Monday and likely Tuesday with increasing humidity and a resultant increased chance of scattered thunder.  Even as a quick shot of cooler air arrives toward the end of next week, we’ll still be talking about daytime highs around or over 80, and another rebound of warmth is possible by next weekend.

Localized Downpours Tuesday Ahead of a Cooler End To the Week

LKN_FIRST_ALERT_MAP_ACTIVE (1)A First Alert continues from our weather team today, owing to expected locally heavy downpours that will slow some for the evening commute and may cause localized flooding, especially in urban centers and poor drainage spots.  Although damaging storms aren’t likely, it’s not impossible Central and Southern New England sees an isolated gust of strong wind from one of the stronger downpours or thunderstorms.  Overnight, the rain will gradually consolidate to Cape Cod and far Southeast New England, where rain will continue until early Wednesday morning.  A cool and drying north-northeast wind takes hold Wednesday, delivering increasing sunshine with the most stubborn clouds over Cape Cod in the morning and high temperatures not surpassing the 70s, north-to-south.  Thursday through Saturday will all feature a slow-moving disturbance to our west, raising the possibility for afternoon or early evening pop-up showers or thunder, but the highest chance will be found in Western New England.  By Sunday, the chance of thunder grows regionwide, though an enjoyable day is still expected for most, with high temperatures gradually rising through the period into the 80s by Sunday and likely to stay in the 80s with a return to our familiar summer pattern for all of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Fantastic Monday Yields to Tropical Air and Developing Downpours Tuesday

LKN_FRONTS_NEWENG (2)An incredible Monday is brought to us by the winning combination of dry air and sunshine, teaming with a steady west and southwest breeze to boost temperatures into the middle 80s.  A cold front is slowly approaching New England from the north and will bring scattered showers and thunder only to the far North Country of New England Monday – elsewhere, still well in advance of the cold front, warmth will continue building in and be followed by increasingly humid air overnight Monday night with building clouds and a mild night.  Tuesday the humidity will be palpable for Central and Southern New England, and this will allow morning showers in Northern and Central New England to slowly build into downpours and thunder Monday midday onward, with some of the torrential downpours fueled by tropical air resulting into localized flooding and big puddles on roads.  Given the potential for localized flooding and delays to the evening commute, we’ve hoisted a First Alert for Tuesday afternoon and evening.  By Wednesday, expect shifting winds to lower the humidity and likely ship showers out very early in the day for a drier but cooler day.  The cool air will stick around through the end of the week and while dry air will try to hang on, a slow-moving disturbance from the west will raise the chance of showers by late Thursday into Friday, particularly the farther west one is in New England.  Summer lovers, fear not: we expect a mid-summer redux to begin late this weekend and last through next week with temperatures into the 80s again in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

An Enjoyable Weekend for Many...Though Some Showers Will Fall

LKN_NBCU_POP_D1_NEWENG (6)Although most of the weekend will be lovely for New England, there will be some noteworthy exceptions.  Friday certainly is getting us started out on the right foot: dry air has arrived, sweeping humidity to our south and bringing out plenty of sun that will boost temperatures into the 80s – without much humidity, that will feel fantastic.  A strong, energetic disturbance is approaching New England from Canada and will be close enough to spark some scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon in the far North Country, but only in the North Country where one or two storms may have some gusty wind.  Expect clear skies for most overnight Friday night with evening temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s falling to the 50s for many, owing to the dry and cool nature of the air.  Don’t forget to look skyward Friday night!  The Perseid Meteor Shower is a perennial favorite and technically peaks Sunday, Monday and Tuesday predawn, but you’ll still be able to catch some “shooting stars” in the Friday night sky.  Saturday the approaching disturbance aloft moves directly overhead, and this will mean rapid development of clouds and showers in Northern New England Saturday morning, expanding in areal coverage and intensity as the day wears on and holding temperatures shy of 70 for some in the North…while Central and Southern New England starts with sun before clouds billow and eventually some scattered showers and sprinkles meander south, though should remain scattered at worst amidst an active breeze.  The transient disturbance marches east by Sunday, leaving sunshine and a gorgeous day in its wake for the second half of the weekend with breezy and pleasant air that will warm well into the 80s Monday before a chance of midweek rain.  The early call on next weekend, yet again in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, is looking good!

New England's Humidity Just About Ready To Break

FRONTS_D3The air is about to change in New England as a cold front approaches from the northwest, but not before one more day of warm and humid conditions Thursday.  In Northern New England, periodic showers and rain will drift from west to east through the day, eventually leading to some renewed scattered thunderstorms in Vermont and Western MA that may be severe in a few spots.  Southern New England sees sun and clouds with temperatures rising well into the 80s, but this sets the stage for the scattered storms developing in Western New England to migrate east and perhaps hold together as at least scattered thunder from particularly the MA Turnpike northward Thursday late day and evening, even beyond dinnertime.  Behind the scattered showers and thunder, the new air starts moving in almost immediately, but it won’t come rushing in – rather, Eastern and Southern New England may still feel humid first thing Friday before a westerly breeze lowers the dew point with enough dry air for plentiful sun and temperatures 80 to 85 for most of us, though a pop-up afternoon shower isn’t impossible in the northern mountains.  Saturday, the air aloft turns quite chilly with a northern jet stream disturbance dropping south from Canada, and this will promote clusters of showers and perhaps even bursts of steadier rain in Northern New England where highs should be capped around 70, while Southern New England will find building clouds and the chance of an isolated shower midday to afternoon with an active breeze and highs closer to 80.  Saturday’s disturbance keeps moving, so Sunday will be terrific regionwide and likely lead to a great start to the week next week before another chance of showers mounts toward midweek – to be determined whether that’s a standard scattered shower/thunderstorm potential, or perhaps a more organized rain storm that would keep temperatures cooler on Tuesday or Wednesday – we’ll keep you posted with our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

On Guard for Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon

LKN_SEVERE_OUTLOOK_NEWENG (1)Our NBC10 Boston, NECN and Telemundo New England Weather Team continues a First Alert for most of New England this afternoon and evening as humid and warm air will team with an upper level disturbance to touch off showers and thunderstorms – some of which will be damaging.  The morning starts with muggy sun and clouds but by midday, weak showers moving through Connecticut will strengthen and expand as they jog northeast, only the first of what will be a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the second half of the day, evening and into the overnight.  Heavy rain is a given with all storms, owing to the humid air, but locally damaging wind will occur in stronger storms and a tornado is not entirely impossible with shifting winds aloft.  The lowest risk of thunderstorms will be Southeast MA and the Cape, where we’ll wait until late evening and night for storms to arrive.  Thursday should start with predawn rain that breaks into isolated showers and thunder as humid air lingers.  By Friday, winds of change will carry more comfortable air into New England but temperatures will remain warm…then the weekend delivers slightly cooler temperatures and great weather, save for a North Country shower or storm Saturday.  It looks like a similar pattern sets up next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, with a heightened chance of showers at midweek, then what could be another great weekend, though right now that’s still just a bit off the 10-day.