Fresh Air Before Summer Warmth Rebuilds This Weekend

10_DAY_ACTIVE 20220517The change in air is noticeable across New England Tuesday morning with a drop in both temperature and dew point – the measure of the amount of moisture in the air – but with the energy that drove yesterday’s cold front across the area still drifting east over New England, some renewed, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the North Country. While the cold air aloft may result in some small hail in the heart of these North Country storms, Central and Southern New England will stay mostly dry with only a few isolated sprinkles and light showers falling in spots during the afternoon from building puffy cumulus clouds. The drier air for most of us will mean quick enough drying to deliver moderate brush fire danger regionwide by afternoon and the breeze gusting to 40 mph at times from the west will knock loose just about every kind of pollen. Dry air tends to cool quickly with the loss of sun, so overnight Tuesday night low temperatures will drop to the 30s north and 40s south before a quick rebound to 70 degrees under sunshine Wednesday afternoon. The next disturbance to cross the New England sky comes Thursday with showers moving in from west to east Wednesday overnight and lasting through the first half of Thursday before the wind shifts from a moist, ocean flow from the southeast or east to a west wind by afternoon to start the drying process anew. In fact, Thursday’s showers mark the start of returning warmth that will be felt Friday…then really turn on Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures into the 80s, building humidity and a chance of afternoon thunder on both weekend afternoons, but particularly with the approach of a cold front later Sunday or Monday. The speed of the cold front’s passage will determine how high the chance of a renewed shower Monday is, but right now we’re thinking Monday starts the arrival of another shot of drier and cooler air for the first half of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Warmth Set to Expand in New England for the Weekend

LKS_FCST_HIGHS_D0_NEWENG (9) LKS_FCST_HIGHS_D0_NEWENG (9) LKS_FCST_HIGHS_D0_NEWENG (9) LKS_FCST_HIGHS_D0_NEWENG (9) LKS_FCST_HIGHS_D0_NEWENG (9) LKS_FCST_HIGHS_D0_NEWENG (9)Slowly but surely, the air in New England will turn warmer and more humid through the weekend, from south to north.  The first sign of changing air was evident Thursday morning with clouds and pockets of fog and drizzle as the combination of an ocean wind and a general increase in moisture helped to saturate the air in Eastern New England.  This isn’t the case for Central, Western and Northern New England, where dry air drives the brush fire danger high again, but eastern areas see another day of moderate, rather than high, brush fire danger.  Of course, this doesn’t do much to change the astronomical pollen count that features nearly every kind of tree pollen except pine.  While an easterly wind will be light but persistent Thursday, meaning the coast will again be cooler than the interior to the tune of 60s rather than 70s, a change in wind direction is on the way.  Friday’s wind will gradually turn to blow gently from the south, which for most of New England means warmer and more humid air filters in, but the exceptions this time of the year are always found near south-facing coasts, where a south wind blows over ocean water that’s only 45°-50°.  While ocean waves will steadily quiet in the days ahead, the phenomenon of milder and more humid air over cold water creates stubborn clouds, pockets of fog, occasional drizzle and certainly cooler temperatures, with at least some measure of cooling often able to extend 40 or 50 miles inland, into Central and Northern CT, RI, much of Southeast MA and the Maine coast up to the Turnpike, where Friday through Sunday high temperatures will likely be in the 70s, rather than 80s farther inland.  While the increasing humidity will be palpable for New Englanders coming off such dry air that started the week, and will be evident with the clouds and fog at times, we’ll wait until overnight Saturday night for the first chance of more formidable showers.  With the jet stream nearby – the fast river of air, high in the sky, that steers disturbances – one impulse of atmospheric energy will raise the chance of showers overnight Saturday night, with a follow-up disturbance raising the chance of scattered Sunday afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Warm and somewhat humid air will last into Monday with another chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunder associated with a passing cold front that will deliver pleasant and less humid air with high temperatures either side of 70 degrees for most of the remainder of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Winds of Change to Bump Up Temperature and Humidity for Many This Weekend

LKS_WEEKEND_PRECIP_ACTIVE (10)Wednesday brings the most widespread clouds of the week with a few sprinkles from time to time after early morning showers fell from parts of the South Shore of MA to Cape Cod.  The change in weather isn’t marked by a change in wind – the wind is still blowing from the northeast, off the ocean in Southern New England – the difference is, after several days of dry air overwhelming ocean moisture, the air has finally moistened a bit.  This mostly is happening from RI to Worcester to Manchester points southeast, with the rest of Central, Western and Northern New England still seeing sunshine.  While the increased moisture in the air helps to lower the brush fire danger from high to moderate in eastern Southern New England, it remains high in parts of Northern New England, where multiple brush fires continue to burn including one that is burning for its third day in the White Mountain National Forest.  Of course, without meaningful rain the pollen count remains quite high.  As the northeast wind gradually abates through Thursday, the ocean will slowly play a more limited role in the weather and big surf will quiet, as well…but this time of the year the impact is almost never moot for most.  For instance, pockets of fog will develop overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning along with widespread clouds in the southern half of New England as we cool with the slightly increased moisture in the air.  On Thursday the wind will turn light and variable before gently blowing from the southeast, bleeding more moisture into the air of New England.  While afternoon sun should break through morning clouds and boost temperatures for nearly all, with highs in the 70s inland and 60s closer to the coast, fog and clouds will fill in again Thursday night and linger into Friday morning, before emerging sun boosts temperatures into the 70s for most, 80s in some of Northern New England away from any ocean influence, with 60s before a sea breeze at the coast.  This weekend the southerly wind strengthens, which should mean daytime high temperatures climbing over 80 degrees for much of New England, this time probably including some of the eastern shoreline, though a south wind does blow over the Atlantic Ocean for any south-facing coastlines, where pockets of fog, clouds and even a touch of drizzle at times will float in and out Friday into the weekend.   As humidity increases noticeably Saturday and Sunday, it won’t necessarily turn sticky for most of New England, but coming off a stretch of very dry days the moisture will be palpable in the air and also will encourage some isolated afternoon showers inland Saturday, and scattered afternoon thunder Sunday.  A cold front passing through New England Monday will touch off more scattered thunder before a drier air – but still very pleasant temperatures – settles in for the middle of next week, evident in our First Alert 10-day forecast.