With Heat Wave Over, Downpours Move In

Social1The heat wave has ended for New England, with 90s not expected Monday.  That said, while the deep heat has been forced south and the humidity has been cut back, it’s still humid enough that incoming disturbances aloft, moving west to east across New England, will trigger showers, downpours and thunderstorms.  The unsettled weather will come in fits and starts, at first, then expand and become more consistent as afternoon turns to evening.  Feeding off plenty of humid air aloft, downpours will drop quick, hearty rainfall that may result in localized flooding and ponding of water Monday evening into Monday night.  In Southern New England, particularly near the South Coast, we’ll also be on guard for embedded strong wind gusts that may cause localized damage.  Expect periods of rain and embedded thunder to continue off and on through the overnight into Tuesday morning, slowly settling southeast as the day wears on, but still producing showers for much of Southern New England through at least midday, holding temperatures to the lower 70s at even their warmest point.  Northern New England is likely to stay dry after an early shower exits Maine, and that dry and comfortable air will take over for all of New England for a pleasant and lovely day Wednesday, lasting into the start of the weekend with slowly rising temperatures that eventually will near 90 this weekend, first inland on Saturday, then even to the coast Sunday as humidity increases and a chance of thunder builds.  Heat and humidity is expected to stick around through the first half of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Dangerous Heat Continues In New England Through the Weekend

LKN_BOARD_PIC_WITH_TEXTThe much-advertised heat is well underway across New England.  Our NBC10 Boston and NECN Weather Team continues our First Alert through the weekend for a dangerous combination of heat and humidity, boosting temperatures to nearly 100 degrees and heat index values – or, “feels like temperatures” – to near 110°.  Some basic tips for extreme heat include the obvious: stay hydrated, seek relief in air conditioning whenever possible and wear lightweight, light-color clothing.  But there are other tips that can help, too: keep in mind noon to 5 PM are the worst times for heat and heat index, so activity should be curtailed during especially these times.  Check on those who may be battling an illness, are elderly or not in the best physical shape, because the weather will put a strain on the body.  If you or someone you know, even if you are in good physical shape, are showing signs of dehydration like headaches or dry mouth, or are experiencing muscle cramping or fatigue, take some time to rest, cool off and drink water.  These tips apply both to Saturday and Sunday, though Sunday will likely put a greater stress on the body for those without air conditioning, since the Saturday night temperature is expected to remain warm, not affording the body much significant rest or recuperation.  An isolated thunderstorm may develop Saturday late day and evening, particularly in Western New England, and could feed off the heat and humidity, but we do expect very isolated storms at worst.  Sunday afternoon and evening may bring a few more storms in more of a scattered nature as the atmosphere gets ready to change, and Monday won’t be as hot, will be somewhat less humid and will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms as the air changes.  Behind the slow-moving cold front that may leave some showers lingering in Southern New England into Tuesday, new, fresh air will arrive for the remainder of next week, with even next weekend looking good though warmer in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Dangerous Heat for the Weekend

LKN_BOARD_PIC_WITH_TEXT (7)Our NBC10 Boston and NECN Weather Team continues our First Alert through the entirety of the weekend for dangerous heat.  Of course, as we’re all feeling today, we’re not quite into dangerous territory yet.  After a comfortable start Friday morning, a warm front crossing New England from west to east represents the leading edge of returning deep summer heat and humidity, with dewpoint temperatures around and over 70 indicating a super soupy airmass, and temperatures poised to push 100 degrees.  Because the air is just arriving Friday, most communities top out at 90 to 95 Friday afternoon, though Maine and Cape Cod will be cooler, receiving the new air last.  In fact, Central and Northern Maine will continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon as the new air takes hold.  Upstate New York thunderstorms Friday evening may bleed into Western MA and CT the first part of Friday night, otherwise a sticky and warm night is expected with patchy fog.  Saturday and Sunday will be very similar days: temperatures rising to near 100 degrees, heat index values 105-110° and a very high UV index with ample sun amidst the incredible humidity. A Canadian border storm is possible late Saturday and could carry as a few storms into the mountains Saturday night, otherwise the chance of thunder rises later Sunday into Sunday evening, particularly the farther north and west one is.  By Monday, a slow-moving cold front sags south into New England, touching off thunderstorms but also marking an end to the deep heat and humidity and ushering in a drier, more comfortable air that will take hold Tuesday and last through much of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Dangerous Heat Expected in New England This Weekend

LKN_BOARD_PIC_WITH_TEXT (6)Although we’ve declared a First Alert for Friday through Sunday, we’re in the midst of a one-day reprieve from the heat in New England, behind Wednesday’s late thunderstorms, as a northeast wind sweeps cooler and less humid air in for all but the South Coast.  In the change of air, and with some atmospheric energy lingering aloft, scattered showers with embedded downpours through midday in the southern half of New England slowly wane from north to south…but this means South Coastal communities, particularly from Southeast Connecticut through Southern Rhode Island and the Cape & Islands will be in and out of showers and embedded downpours much of Thursday, while the opposite end of New England in the north sees sunshine and a delightful day.  Cool temperatures Thursday night will precede an incoming warm front Friday: the leading edge to the return of warmth and humidity that will become increasingly felt from west to east Friday, sparing only Maine by day’s end with most communities seeing high temperatures around 90 with heat index values climbing a bit higher by day’s end.  Saturday and Sunday bring the crux of the heat: highs 95 to 100 degrees with heat index values either side of 105° during the afternoon, making the heat dangerous and at least periodic relief necessary for people and pets, alike.  Although most of the weekend will be dry, we’ll be watching for any disturbances that may capitalize on the heat to breed strong thunderstorms, with one such disturbance moving from New York State near Western New England Friday evening and night, another moving out of the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and a final in Southern Canada late Sunday into Sunday night. None of these are sure to bring thunder to New England – all will be watched.  Thunder is likely with a cold front that breaks the heat Monday, leading to the return of more comfortable, typical summer air for most of next week into the start of next weekend in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

As Once-Hurricane Barry's Tropical Moisture Drifts In, Storms To Erupt in Humid Air

LKN_SEVERE_OUTLOOK_BOSDMATropical air streaming north in association with the leftover moisture and energy associated with once-Hurricane Barry is now just a collection of variable clouds, erupting showers and thunderstorms and sultry air, but still will have enough of an impact on New England that we continue our First Alert today.  Showers and periodic rain in Northern New England continue through the day, limiting any severe weather threat for northern areas but making for a wet day, overall, while Southern New England dips in and out of cloud cover but should get enough sun coupled with a southwest wind and tropical air to bump temperatures to near 90 degrees with humidity creating a “feels like” temperature in the lower to middle 90s.  As a slowly approaching cold front interacts with the tropical air, thunderstorms will erupt in Central and especially Southern New England and these thunderstorms will grow strong with all producing torrential rain thanks to the humid air and some growing strong enough to focus localized damaging wind gusts. In tropical air, the clouds develop near to the ground, which raises the possibility of a brief tornado touchdown – though not likely, it’s also not impossible, so our team will be fixated on the radar today, including our exclusive Storm Ranger mobile Doppler radar we’ll deploy to Central MA this afternoon and evening.  Wednesday night the rain slowly settles south over far Southern New England as thunder diminishes and Thursday we’ll see areas of showers and embedded downpours cropping up over the southern half of New England while Northern New England stays dry.  The most noteworthy weather feature Thursday may be the new air: much cooler with highs only in the 70s, and noticeably less humid near and north of the MA Turnpike.  Heat is poised to return from west to east Friday and while there’s some uncertainty just how hot Friday afternoon becomes, Saturday’s heat will be dangerous with actual highs nearing one hundred degrees and heat index or “feels like” temperatures around 105°.  This poses a risk for those with no cooling options at home and encourages cooling centers and splash pads to open across the region, especially considering Saturday night low temperatures will likely be either side of 80 degrees, meaning little rest for the body for folks without air conditioning before temperatures climb back into the 90s Sunday.  The heat should break sometime Monday with thunderstorms, some of which may crop up again Tuesday before new air arrives for the middle of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

As former Hurricane Barry Remnant Nears New England, Heat, Humidity and Storms To Expand

10_DAY_ACTIVE (55)When you see a “First Alert” stamp on our exclusive NBC10 First Alert 10-day forecast, that’s an indication our First Alert Weather Team thinks we should all have our antennae up for an especially impactful weather day.  In a somewhat rare setup, we have a total of four First Alert stamps on today’s 10-day forecast.  After a delightful Tuesday of summer warmth and continued relatively low humidity, the now diffuse remnant of once-Hurricane Barry is drawing slowly closer to New England, and this will bring vast changes to our weather.  Humidity continues increasing slowly but steadily at our South Coast Tuesday afternoon into evening, and as the evening wears on, that tropical air will continue migrating north across New England.  When dew point temperatures, used to measure the amount of moisture in the air, reach 70 degrees, the air feels tropical, and we expect that milestone to be eclipsed overnight Tuesday night, making for an uncomfortable sleeping night and leading to a sultry Wednesday.  

Morning showers will already be ongoing Wednesday in Northern New England, where off and on showers, downpours and thunder will persist through the day.  In Central and Southern New England, an isolated shower is possible morning through midday, but for the most part we’ll find sun through clouds, raising high temperatures to around 90 with heat index values – the combination of heat and humidity for a “feels like” temperature – reaching the middle 90s.  LKN_SEVERE_OUTLOOK_DAY2_NEWENGThis, in and of itself, would be sufficient for a First Alert declaration, as these heat index values take a toll on the body…but the weather situation turns more impactful Wednesday afternoon ahead of a slow moving cold front interacting with the tropical moisture associated with Barry’s remnant, resulting in erupting thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.  In Central and especially Southern New England – including Boston, Manchester, Worcester, Springfield, Hartford and Providence all the way to the South Coast and Cape, thunderstorms may grow severe and damaging in spots, not only bringing torrential rain fueled by the abundance of humid air, but also producing damaging winds…and although not a high probability, a tornado can’t be ruled out in Southern New England.  While damaging thunderstorms will weaken Wednesday night, showers and downpours will continue, off and on, into Thursday morning, particularly south of the Massachusetts Turnpike where Thursday may dawn with some lingering downpours before less humid, cooler air pushes in…actually bringing delightful air and sun to the Northern half of New England Thursday.

Shifting winds are expected to return heat to New England starting Friday and lasting through the weekend.  Though the abundance of hot and lack of hot/cool clash means the chance of storms is fairly low this weekend outside of perhaps an isolated Green Mountain thunderstorm, heat will take center-stage as temperatures climb to around 90 Friday, provided early clouds clear as currently anticipated, with temperatures certain to climb well into the 90s Saturday…making a run at the century mark.  Combined with humidity, the heat index seems quite certain to surpass 100 degrees Saturday afternoon, making hydration, relief from the heat and avoiding overexertion all critical parts of weekend plans.  Although the heat may not be quite as searing on Sunday, we still expect temperatures to surpass 90 degrees with heat index values into the middle 90s.  Monday is likely to bring a slow cold front with developing thunderstorms, so it’s tough to say exactly how hot we get before the new air arrives, but another 90 degree day isn’t out of the question.  Of course, three consecutive days of 90 degrees or hotter qualifies as a heat wave, so it’s likely most of New England experiences a heat wave somewhere between Friday and Monday.

Cooler but still summery air is expected my midweek in our exclusive First Alert 10-day Forecast.

Once-Hurricane Barry's Remnant and a Building Heatwave Ahead

BLOG1Overall, exceptional summer weather continues for New England, though the weather unquestionably becomes a bit more extreme in the days ahead.  We’re starting the week with comfortably low humidity and continuing warmth as highs rebound into the middle and upper 80s under plenty of sunshine.  Over the Tennessee River Valley, the remnant moisture of once-Hurricane Barry slowly migrates northeast and will eventually impact the forecast for New England, carrying increasing humidity and some showers and thunder into the forecast for midweek.  Until then, sea breezes don’t kick up for most beaches Monday, but are more likely Tuesday, while inland communities reach 85 to 90 degrees by day, and most communities cool comfortably into the 60s Monday and Tuesday night.  There’s no question Wednesday we’ll feel a surge in humidity as tropical air settles in, and if highs climb into the lower 90s, we’ll see our heat index values – “feels like” temperatures – reaching the middle 90s.  Later Wednesday through Thursday the chance for showers and thunderstorms will elevate significantly as leftover moisture from Barry enters from the west, encouraging any storms that develop to produce locally heavy downpours in the soupy air.  Just as that moisture departs on Friday, we’ll be opening the door to a more sustained bout with heat and humidity that’s been building over the Central United States, and is likely to provide New England with our first heat wave of the season Friday through Sunday – and perhaps into Monday.  Thunderstorms don’t look exceptionally likely this weekend, but it’ll be hazy, hot and humid with heat index values poised to rise near 100°.  Even as we cool a bit early next week, we’ll still find high temperatures in the 80s in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.