Autumn Snowflakes Becoming More Common in New England's Forecast

LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (11) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (11)Where the most showers fell Monday morning, it was downright chilly!  Temperatures around and just shy of 40 degrees from Northern and Western Massachusetts into Southern and Central Vermont and New Hampshire to Southern and Central Maine made for wintry feeling showers, while colder air in the North Country made it look wintry too: snow at 32° fell from Montpelier, VT, to Coos County, NH and Northwestern ME.  In the Crown of Maine – northern Aroostook County – snow moves in on cold roads for snow-covered roads where treatments aren’t applied as a couple of inches of snow are expected Monday.  Elsewhere, the air remains raw but does slowly moderate into the 50s for most by afternoon, 40s in Northern New England, with pockets of morning and midday showers becoming only a few widely scattered sprinkles under plenty of clouds by afternoon through the overnight Monday night.  Tuesday brings variable clouds and a dry day until a weak cold front arrives late day and evening with a possible sprinkle, but mostly just continues to reinforce cool and dry air so that, even as more sunshine breaks out Wednesday, holding temperatures in the middle 50s for highs.  By Thursday, Tropical Storm Zeta – currently near the Yucatan Peninsula and forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and make midweek landfall near the Louisiana coastline as a record-earliest 27th named storm in the Tropical Atlantic – will be significantly weakened as it crosses the Mid-Atlantic, but will toss some moisture far enough north of its track to spread rain into Southern New England late Thursday.  Thursday night into Friday, another storm center ejecting out of the Southwestern United States where it drops up to a foot of snow this week, was predicted to cross New England regardless of Zeta, and will continue the rain and interact with enough cold air to possibly change rain to snow Friday morning.  Though it’s very early to say with certainty, our exclusive NBC10 Boston/NECN Forecast System is offering a reasonable prediction of at least some snow all the way to the suburbs northwest of Boston and Hartford, and as much as two or three inches in the higher terrain of the Southern Green Mountains into the Monadnock Region.  Though rain certainly exits by Halloween, chilly air follows the storm with highs only in the 40s and trick-or-treat temperatures likely in the 30s ahead of turning the clocks back overnight Saturday night.  Sunday should return to the 50s, which is where we’ll likely find temperatures the first half of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Two Areas of Showers Tuesday...Mild Air For Most of New England

V_LKN_PTYPE_TEMPS_NEWENG (1)There are two focused areas of showers and rain Tuesday in New England – one north and another southeast.  The southeastern area of rain expanded Tuesday morning and continues periodically through the day, focused on Southeast CT, RI and Southeast MA through the South Shore and southern suburbs of Boston – the product of a tropical packet of moisture that’s traveled north up the Eastern Seaboard and will produce occasional showers…then pockets of rain…then embedded downpours in these southeast locales.  The rain in Northern New England is lighter in intensity and developing from an entirely different disturbance: a cold front sagging south across the Canada border, slowing as it does so and prepared to stall over Northern New England Tuesday night.  This leaves the major metropolitan areas of Hartford, Springfield, Worcester, Boston, Portsmouth, Portland and Bangor mostly between areas of rain, with the best chance of some sprinkles or light showers late day and evening Tuesday. Overnight Tuesday night, the stalling front in Northern New England turns around and starts north, becoming a warm front as a south wind increases, not only keeping mild overnight temperatures in the 50s for much of New England except the far north, but also delivering fog, sprinkles and light showers from the overnight into Wednesday morning.  As mild air takes stronger hold of Central and Southern New England Wednesday midday and afternoon, fog dissipates, showers become less likely and clouds break for some sun, bumping temperatures above 70 degrees for all but the North Country and Maine, where clouds will hang tough.  The same wavering frontal boundary marches south again Wednesday night into Thursday, delivering some night showers to Northern and Central New England, and drier air to all six states for increased sun Thursday with only a slow arrival of cooler air that will first be evident in Northern New England Thursday, then near our eastern coasts as the wind shifts to blow off the water Thursday afternoon, then for all of us Thursday night into Friday with noticeably cooler air.  It appears mild air may make one final stand Saturday, sending temperatures near 70 again before a stronger, lasting surge of cool air arrives behind a Saturday evening and night shower for a sharply, dramatically cooler Sunday and setting us up for a cool week next week with an increased chance of showers in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Wavering Frontal Boundary to Bring Oscillating Temperatures to New England This Week

FRONTS_D1A small bubble of high pressure – fair weather – is doing the trick in New England Monday to deliver sunshine mixed with some high-altitude clouds that decorated the sky at sunrise and continue to throughout the day.  With a nearly quiet wind, light sea breezes will develop near the ocean Monday afternoon and temperatures will be limited in their recovery from early morning lows in the 30s to afternoon highs near 60 degrees.  Clouds thicken Monday night with a southerly wind helping to keep temperatures in the 40s, setting the stage for a milder Tuesday with high temperatures nearing 70 for Central and Southern New England.  In Northern New England, a cold front approaching from Canada late Monday will first launch rain showers into the Champlain Valley and Northern Vermont Monday evening…the Great North Woods and Northern Maine Monday night…and much of the North Country Tuesday morning.  The slow-moving cold front will settle south with showers into the Lakes Region and Queen City of New Hampshire Tuesday afternoon to evening, extending into Southern Maine by evening, as well.  Farther south, rain won’t be as likely, but also isn’t impossible – some sprinkles and light showers are in the forecast for the southern half of New England under plenty of clouds Tuesday, with showers a bit more likely in Southeast MA including the Cape and Islands from more humid air moving across Southeastern New England.  The slow-moving cold front will stall…then reverse direction over Central and Northern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, never delivering a swath of rain farther south before retreating as a warm front, allowing a warm southerly wind to take hold again and bumping temperatures into the 70s in Southern New England with increasing Wednesday afternoon sun.  That same front, wavering north to south to north…will waver once more on Thursday, again dropping south as a cold front and this time changing the air for all of New England Thursday night into Friday.  Believe it or not, one more bounce mild, then cool, is anticipated Saturday, then Sunday, respectively, with a couple of quick showers in the transition but not likely substantial rain.  From Sunday onward into next week, our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast shows cooler air decidedly winning out.