As New England approaches the full moon this week, tides have been running extra high and extra low – enough that our coastal residents will notice the larger-than-normal swings in ocean level, with some minor coastal flooding or splashover a possibility in typically vulnerable spots at an 11 PM high tide Tuesday night and a midnight high tide Wednesday night. Otherwise, our weather map features a center of high pressure – fair weather – shifting to the east of New England, past Nova Scotia, and the clockwise flow of air around that center is providing a southwest wind to New England Tuesday, which means sea breezes won’t be a factor and eastern coasts will warm just as much as the interior as high temperatures reach 75 to 80 degrees. The notable exceptions will be found near south-facing coasts, where a prevailing southwest wind blows across cool ocean water and daytime high temperatures will be cooler than the remainder of our New England communities, and this same phenomenon continues through Wednesday, as the southwest wind continues to blow. The continued southwest wind has a few other implications, as well: increasing atmospheric moisture will mean pockets of fog developing by Wednesday morning near the South Coast, pockets of low-altitude clouds that will be stubborn near the South Coast and particularly on Cape Cod Wednesday, and an increasingly humid feeling in the air for most of New England. Combined with temperatures nearing 90 degrees, Wednesday afternoon will feel somewhat sultry and sets the stage for possible strong or damaging thunderstorms from northwest to southeast across New England late day and evening, with the greatest potential for frequent lightning and locally damaging wind gusts found in Central and Southern New England Wednesday evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Our Team has issued a First Alert for Wednesday evening to raise awareness of the potential for some damaging storms in New England. The passage of the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday opens the door to less humid air and cools New England from hot to warm Thursday…with even cooler air arriving Thursday night into Friday. Ensuring Friday will be noticeably cooler is an approaching storm center forecast to pass south of New England Friday, delivering a cool rain across at least Southern New England on Friday, though just how much rain – based on just how close the storm center comes – is still uncertain. The storm track is really important in the holiday forecast, too, because a series of additional storm centers will follow the path of the first, meaning at best a series of days with cool onshore wind flow, variable clouds and a few scattered showers will follow for Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day (that’s our forecast), but at worst, we’d see periods of cool rain all the way through (less likely, not our forecast, but not impossible). For now, our First Alert Team follows a somewhat optimistic route of delivering some rain Friday into Saturday morning, then only scattered afternoon showers that may pop up Sunday in a few communities and likely a dry Memorial Day, but we’ll be keeping you posted, of course. The end of our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast returns temperatures to near 80 degrees.