Humidity Builds, Showers and Storms Increase Ahead of Likely Heat Wave
Strong Thunderstorms Expected in Heat and Humidity Tuesday Afternoon and Evening

Evaluating Friday Storm Chance: Lightning, Torrential Rain Biggest Concerns in Southern New England

NBCUFS_radarswath NBCUFS_radarswath NBCUFS_radarswath NBCUFS_radarswathWhen I have time, you know I love pulling back the curtain a bit for weather events. Today's (Friday) thunderstorms should mostly focus in the southern half of New England. This round was in Upstate New York yesterday and produced only a few spots of damage, very little overall, but one was a likely tornado touchdown. Similarly, our thunderstorm parameters don't favor widespread severe weather by definition - wind and hail. We all know that lightning and torrential rain can make the storms impactful, though, and there are signals of both, so please watch the northwest and western sky this afternoon and "when thunder roars, go indoors" - be ready to seek shelter if storms approach. Here are a few examples from our exclusive NBC10 Boston & NECN Forecast System I built with my colleague Aaron Perry over the last several years. Items of note: 1) the radar swath shows clearly where strongest storms will form today, 2) the wind gust swath shows rather paltry wind, implying widespread wind damage in storms is unlikely, 3) the "updraft helicity swath" represents forecast rotational tracks - you can pretty much ignore grays but the blues your antenna go up to at least pay attention to storms that enter that zone, today they may rotate but the question is with lots of clouds and temps only near 80 does anything actually grow strong enough to do something like Upstate New York yesterday or is it just a weakly spinning storm, which is actually pretty common. 4) The accumulated precipitation shows some high rain amounts, which makes sense given the humid air, so urban flooding is a possibility from Worcester to Boston area today. Worth noting, even just hours before the time of nature's reckoning, there are still several forecast products showing only a few storms at all in Southern New England today. That extreme seems improbable, but not impossible with our lack of sun and heat today. Putting it all together, today's storm event does not look like a widespread *severe* setup but lightning & downpours on the other hand are more likely & remember strongest storms could still do damage. After this, HEAT! Have a great weekend. Stay weather aware!


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