Evaluating Friday Storm Chance: Lightning, Torrential Rain Biggest Concerns in Southern New England
Scattered Wednesday Storms Ahead of Thursday Fresh Air...and a Sunrise Eclipse!

Strong Thunderstorms Expected in Heat and Humidity Tuesday Afternoon and Evening

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Be ready to duck inside with storms increasing after 3 PM today!
 
Details: Just in case you missed NBC10 Boston & NECN this AM, I hit storms pretty hard for today. Potential for lots of lightning, torrential rain, damaging gusts. A potential for rotation inside some storms, as well. Watch the western sky & be ready to head indoors, esp. after 3pm, worst is 4-8pm. During potential severe events, I love to pull clues from our exclusive Forecast System we built here in-house. Starting with the radar swath (sum of all forecast radar images) illustrates quickly and clearly the area of concern in the coming hours. With high dew points - tons of moisture in the air - any showers and storms that develop today will be excellent at making rain...so it's not surprising to see some localized amounts of 2-3"+ - localized flooding possible. The wind gust swath product looks exactly like I expect it would today - clusters and pockets of higher wind gusts capable of localized damage. Not a broad wind in the sky today, mostly going to be driven by storm strength. Setups like today where u have relatively light avg wind in the atmosphere can be problematic: if storm grows strong enough, can develop its own environment, begin rotating. Will carefully watch MA Pike corridor where our "Updraft Helicity" product shows weak rotation potential (in blue, the gray areas aren't too concerning). Indications are lightning could be major impact today - strongest signals of cloud-to-ground frequency we've had in the last few weeks. I tweeted about potential for very heavy rain/localized flooding, strong wind & perhaps rotation, but above all: "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!" Severe thunderstorm warnings are based on wind or hail. Lightning is NOT a criteria for a warning, so emergency alerts on our phones won't go off for that. Keep in mind hearing thunder means lightning close enough to head to a building or car.

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