The following is a compilation of tweets from today (Twitter account @MattNBCBoston) I've assembled into a post for an update on impending Henri:
Good afternoon, friends - I'm on
, I've taken nobody off guard - and there's good reason. Even based on the current NHC track, which I think may shift east, check out their forecast chance of tropical storm wind (39+ mph) capable of damage.
Looking at satellite imagery, the steering flow aloft, and the trend in available guidance, a shift eastward in track to somewhere between New London CT and Buzzards Bay MA remains very much in play. Note how that would change the expected wind field.
While chance of Tropical Storm force wind is high for many in Southern New England, even in the official NHC package which may end up needing further eastward adjustment, chance of hurricane (sustained 74+) is limited, but again, corridor may come east & this is not gusts.
Storm surge stakes are incredible. If an eastern track near Narragansett or Buzzards Bay goes up, these surge numbers skyrocket on the north end of the bays. Exactly why I'm strongly suggesting all involved in planning/response be ready to active rapidly in these next 24 hours.
Marine and Coastal Communities: Please remain vigilant and ready for a track forecast that may shift east. This storm track is not certain and you absolutely should not rely on the western track yet. Out of respect for inherent uncertainty, keep staffing up for now.
Power Outages: If a western track into CT verifies, widespread outages CT/RI and into Western MA, scattered farther east. If an eastern track verifies, widespread outages Central/Eastern MA, RI, SE NH. Hence, all of Southern NewEng should remain prepped for extended loss of power
Two big reasons a more eastern scenario is still in the cards: satellite imagery shows steering wind pointing due north, west track hinges on sudden shift in steering wind. 2) here's best performing guidance overlaid on current forecast cone. Center or east of cone center.
While official gov't forecast has undoubtedly shifted dramatically over time westward, now coiling back east, NHC is always very clear: look at the cone, not the track. Messaging of that gets lost often. Final track well may be in a spot that was in cone for several forecasts.
Heaviest rain will fall near and west of the storm track. Of course, that means it can deviate depending on what the actual storm track is, but the general idea is Central/Western New England get hit hardest with flash flooding, river flooding that follows as water runs off.
Re: #Henri - I do like the fact that the surface circulation is running ahead of the deep thunderstorms, you can see that on satellite, the big, beefy storms are SE of the clear spiral. *If* it doesn't generate new ones, that can often lead to some modest weakening over time.