A Weekend of Ice, Warmth, Rain, Wind and Sun!
As an Active Weather Pattern Takes Aim Before Christmas, The Atmosphere May Try to Pull Some Tricks

Mild Thursday Followed By Two Potential Storms of Snow and Rain

LKS_FRONTS_NEWENG (1) LKS_FRONTS_NEWENG (1) LKS_FRONTS_NEWENG (1) LKS_FRONTS_NEWENG (1) LKS_FRONTS_NEWENG (1) LKS_FRONTS_NEWENG (1)Our 10-day forecast on NBC10 Boston and NECN features a few major points: 60° Thu and 2 storm chances, Saturday & again Monday night through Tuesday. Thursday's warmth is heralded in by Wednesday night snow to rain showers in Northern New England, rain showers south...all of which ends early Thu for more clouds than sun, a strengthening but non-damaging southwest wind and temps reaching around 60° south and 50° north. This weekend begins an active pattern of weather, at least aloft. The jet stream - the fast corridor of wind that steers storms and separates cold to the north from warm to the south - comes almost right overhead. First storm potential comes Saturday. Overall I'm unimpressed w/ Saturday's system. Fast moving & coming through a very fast, flat flow that rarely allows for significant development. Additionally, Fri will be 40s/50s so air is dry, not cold, meaning Southern New England will lean rain, best chance few inches snow North. There are some meteorologically more favorable conditions for snow in the Mon Night/Tue system than Saturday, if the storm does, indeed, evolve. 1) The preceding storm Saturday deepens east of Newfoundland, deepening the jet stream trough south of Greenland...2) The deepening of the jet stream trough south of Greenland affords some jet stream ridging (a rise northward) near Nova Scotia, which brings some "amplitude" or a tendency for jet stream waves favorable of storm strengthening and this storm enters that favorable zone. 3) The cold air preceding the storm is in place much more firmly than the Saturday system. Highs Monday are only expected to reach the upper 30s with dew points low enough to allow for more cooling Monday night/Tue when precipitation would move in. 4) Due to favorability for "waviness" in the jet stream (meteorology-minded: shortwave ridging over Nova Scotia allows for a digging/amplifying shortwave trough near New England), energy is more neatly bundled & has opportunity to move south of New England, increasing chance of holding cold. All of these factors, IMHO, make Mon night/Tue best opportunity for accumulating snow in the next 10 days in what has been very limited opportunities. Clearly 45% chance from NBCU Forecast System isn't a lock, but 30%+ from our system is a good signal, so will keep watch.


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