Showers Will Break to Extended November Warmth
Steady Warming Into The Weekend Means Record-Challenging Temperatures

Pleasant Stretch Begins...Rare November Warmth Set to Follow

LKS_MATTS_MEMO (24) LKS_MATTS_MEMO (24) LKS_MATTS_MEMO (24) LKS_MATTS_MEMO (24)The much-anticipated stretch of pleasant weather has begun in New England, though the headliner warmth won’t arrive until week’s end.  For now, a weak cold front crossing New England from north to south will reinforce drying air, but some slick roads started the day after overnight showers and a northerly breeze brought quite a few wet leaves onto our back roads – particularly the large oak leaves – covering parts of the road and reducing traction.  As the drier air arrives, the fallen leaves will dry out, too, and blow off our roads, while sunshine mixed only with a few clouds at times during the afternoon bumps temperatures into the 65 to 70 degree range for many and around 60° in the North Country.  As the morning and midday breeze quiets later in the day, temperatures will cool quickly after sundown under a mostly clear sky, dropping to the 30s for many suburban areas of Southern New England points north, and even some 20s in Northern New England valleys, making for overnight frost in a number of spots.  Plenty of sun will make for a noteworthy temperature recovery Thursday, though, with highs reaching the 60s for many, regionwide, as high pressure – a dome of fair weather – begins a slow migration east of New England over the North Atlantic.  Eventually, this new position for the high pressure cell becomes noteworthy, as the clockwise flow of air around its center will induce a southerly wind flow to New England, further increasing the amount of mild air and moisture in the Northeast.  The milder change will be evident first: high temperatures likely to surpass 70 degrees on Friday for some, then Saturday, Sunday and Monday for many.  It’s worth noting there’s some historical context here: our Tevin Wooten dug back into the record books and it turns out we’ve only seen eight November stretches of three or more consecutive 70 degree days.  Furthermore, if we hit or exceed 73 degrees those days in Boston, which is our First Alert Team’s forecast, this has only happened four times in recorded history!  As for daily records, those will be tough to reach but not impossible, particularly Sunday when the record is 73, set in 2015.  As for rainfall, there’s not much in the forecast, but the increasingly moist air Sunday coupled with a slowly approaching cold front from the west will increase the chance of showers Sunday afternoon in Northern and Western New England, and while it’s not likely these would sneak into Eastern New England, it’s not a far distance in the world of weather, so we have introduced a shower chance even to the Boston area by late Sunday into early Monday.  As for a more meaningful pattern change, it still looks like much cooler air – closer to normal for this time of the year – returns for the middle and end of next week, toward the end of our exclusive, First Alert 10-day forecast.


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