A Relatively Quiet Week of New England Weather; Weekend Storm Potential
Why Have Some Storms This Winter Proven to Be Well Forecast for Some, Worse for Others?

Details on Expected Strong Storm Nearby Next Week: Monday Night Through Tuesday

LKS_FRONTS_BOSDMA-77This is something for those of you who enjoy the in-depth science of forecasting weather from several days out re: Tuesday storm. If you are a "just give me the forecast" person, you can probably scroll along. If you love science, here you go...

You will, today & in coming days, see predictions of varying Tuesday storm tracks & impacts. From this far out, no exact solution will be right - much of it is for your entertainment. That said, there are some things we can tease out of guidance that offers insight...each image included is in the right order to correspond with each snippet below.

Jet stream pattern features a strong jet streak (area of faster wind) moving across Southeast US. The area over the waters off the Mid-Atlantic are in a broadly "diffluent" zone - where air tends to separate aloft, encouraging surface air to rise, creating low surface pressure.

Coincident with jet stream diffluence aloft is strong atmospheric energy (represented by spin, referred to as "vorticity" in meteorology), depicted here in green and yellow. Most favorable storm development zone is ahead of where energy is moving, near Southern New England coast.

Putting the upper level pattern together, this favors a storm tracking near or over South Coast while intensifying Mon night into Tue. The meteorological excitement comes because the storm should strengthen readily, currently predicted to reach a rather low barometric pressure.

On its face, the setup would favor a major snowstorm somewhere in New England - but not necessarily Boston. In fact, one huge missing component is a strong high pressure ("anticyclone") pumping in cold air. This begs for storm center itself to carry warmth with it.

Our NBC Forecast System should not be taken verbatim so many days out - nothing should! But...it does help to quickly/easily see what area would be most at risk for heavy snow based on current predictions. Please note "edges" of snow amounts often aren't sharp enough this far out.

What seems certain is the storm will be moisture-loaded and deliver heavy precipitation, whether it be rain or snow at your house. Again, not to be taken verbatim but a good "early guess," our NBC Forecast System cranks out over 2" of liquid equivalent with this storm.

Wind will be a significant factor for this storm. Many should see winds ramp up Monday night as the storm strengthens/approaches. But you need to know where exactly it's going to nail down where worst wind ends up lashing Tuesday. Don't know that yet.

Now you know all the info I believe is reliable from this far out. I figure worth getting ahead of this before maps of feet of snow somewhere between Buffalo & Nantucket start flying LOL. I would expect finer details and steadier solutions will begin Sunday. Have a great weekend.


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