Daily Weather Discussion

Delightful Weather Starts the Weekend, Raw Showers End It

LKN_NBCU_APCP_NEWENG (1)For many, this is a much-needed weekend for rest and recuperation after an unsettling and stressful week.  For others, the days continue to blend together from one to the next.  Either way, this weekend offers weather that will cater to those who want to be outside in fresh air, and those who need an excuse from nature to lay low inside and rest – Saturday and Sunday each offering that juxtaposed weather.  Coming off early showers Friday morning, drier air taking over from mid-morning onward brings clearing and the opportunity for sun to boost temperatures to near 60 by afternoon with the pollen count rising and remaining high into Saturday as dry weather continues through a cool Friday night and through a Saturday that starts with sun and ends with clouds.  Saturday afternoon’s clouds come well ahead of a strengthening storm center pulling from the Central United States across the Great Lakes, dragging warmth and moisture ahead of it, with that air colliding with the cool and dry air already in place here in New England.  Late Saturday evening rain showers will arrive to southwest New England first, then slowly expand northeast, arriving for many of us overnight Saturday night but not arriving to Northern New England until Sunday.  A southeast wind strengthening off the ocean will ensure warm enough air for rain – not snow – in most of New England, but Northern New England should see snow snow and sleet to start when precipitation arrives Sunday morning to midday, accumulating one to three inches from the Northeast Kingdom of VT into the White Mountains of NH, and two to four inches from the Whites through the deep interior of ME – and even a bit more than that in Northern ME.  Regardless, most New Englanders will find raw air Sunday for a day that encourages indoor activities.  A few showers will still be around Monday, particularly in the morning, with snow showers in the North Country and gradual drying making a more appreciable difference later in the day and through Tuesday.  After midweek, the chance of showers builds again toward week’s end, but the early call on next weekend – now fully in view in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast – is for good weather.

Spring Air Settles In...Rain and Snow on Sunday

LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA (5)A cool start was made chillier by the steady but light breeze blowing from the north, holding morning wind chill values in the 20s for most of New England.  As a dome of high pressure, or fair weather, builds over New England Thursday, the wind will go quiet for most, with a gentle sea breeze developing to hold afternoon temperatures beneath sunshine in the 40s for coastal communities while the interior sneaks above 50 degrees.  A quick-moving disturbance chugging east out of the Great Lakes will arrive to New England overnight Thursday night with scattered sprinkles and light showers after midnight into early Friday morning for Central and Southern New England, while Northern New England sees snow showers with little impact, except one to two inches of accumulation are expected in the Crown of Maine.  After lingering showers, sprinkles and clouds Friday early morning, the sun will return and Friday afternoon looks delightful – a bright sky and temperatures well into the 50s, pushing 60 in spots!  Enjoyable spring weather will stick around through the first half of the weekend, with Saturday unquestionably the pick of the weekend with high temperatures in the 50s to near 60 and sunshine giving way to increasing afternoon and evening clouds.  The late Saturday clouds come in advance of the next storm center, strengthening well west of New England as it crosses the Great Lakes into Canada, but likely spawning a new, coastal wave of low pressure along the Southern New England coast Sunday that will both focus heavier rainfall and keep a gusty, raw wind blowing off the ocean for what will be an indoor day for the vast majority of coronavirus social distancing New Englanders…with Northern New England snow expected instead, generally accumulating one to three inches from the Northeast Kingdom of VT to the Lakes and Mountains of NH to interior ME.  Improvement is expected Monday even though some showers may start the day, as a northwest wind kicks in behind our departing storm.  It won’t be long before another storm strengthens out of the Central United States and treks east, this time passing south of New England but likely passing close enough and growing large enough to deliver some showers around Wednesday and Thursday of next week with cool, classic New England spring air holding firm in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Spring Signals Return in Late Winter Chill

Nature is giving cues that spring is efforting a comeback from our early week shot of snow - after a couple of quiet mornings, the peepers have started to sing again and the ducks and birds were much more vocal at sunrise Wednesday morning.  Even with these signs of spring abound, Wednesday feels more like a late winter day with the abundance of clouds suffocating any morning peeks of sun, largely the product of an onshore wind.  The combination of clouds and an easterly wind flow will hold temperatures in the 40s Wednesday with ambient or “feels like” temperatures in the upper 30s at the warmest time of day, with a few sprinkles from time to time during the afternoon.  To our south, a storm center mostly misses, strengthening as it makes its closest pass, growing into a sizable storm too little too late for significant impact to New England, though a period of showers is possible Wednesday evening on the Cape and Islands.  Drier air affords sunshine Thursday with temperatures either side of 50 degrees and a light wind, meaning the day will be a noticeable improvement over Wednesday.  Another quick-moving system Friday will deliver renewed clouds and the chance of a few sprinkles and showers, but departs in time for a pleasant Saturday.  One trend in the forecast has been to slow the arrival of rain Saturday, so while clouds will increase during the afternoon, rain should hold off until overnight Saturday night, falling squarely on Sunday and likely to last most of the day.  All of next week is showing up in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast and looks to do away - at least for now - with the volatile temperature swings of the last few weeks, stabilizing in the 50s and perhaps some 60s, with the greatest chance of showers around midweek.

Spring Snow Melts Quickly

LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA (4)Many New Englanders woke up to fresh spring snow Tuesday morning, with two to four inches generally falling north and west of Boston, but as much as just over half a foot of heavy, wet snow in higher terrain of Central MA into Southern NH.  As is typical of spring snow, melting will come fast on the heels of a snow-covered morning, with breaks of sun bumping Tuesday afternoon temperatures to around and over 50 degrees, taking a perfect snowball and snowman consistency and turning it quickly to wet mush and, by day’s end, lots of puddles with lingering slop.  Sun glare and road spray will make sunglasses and windshield washer fluid helpful accessories Tuesday midday and afternoon, while winter shoes will protect against wet feet with so much melting. Some re-freezing is likely overnight Tuesday night north and west of Boston into much of Central New England, and though many main thoroughfares will have dried enough during the day to prevent widespread black ice, some icy patches are likely.  A storm center passing to the south of New England Wednesday mostly misses, though a shower may crop up during the afternoon and some rain may graze the South Coast including Cape Cod Wednesday evening and night into Thursday morning.  Thereafter, sun re-emerges for New England Thursday, and another nearby storm system Friday is likely to miss to the south, meaning variable clouds but little in the way of precipitation.  It’s been a string of great weekends for New England - at least with dry and bright weather, even if cool at times - and that string may come to an end this weekend with showers expected to arrive sometime later Saturday and last through Sunday, though temperatures stabilize with daytime highs generally in the 50s in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

A Shot of Snow Headed for Interior New England

948B0384-793A-48CB-B43A-2E505F35D9D5Clouds will stay with New England through the day Monday, coupling with a cold start in the 20s to keep temperatures from rising much beyond 40 degrees.  This means when precipitation moves in during the afternoon from west to east - for many of us between 3 PM and 5 PM - we’ll see not only rain but also snow breaking out.  With a southeast wind blowing in from ocean water in the lower 40s, it’s unlikely coastal locales will see much accumulation, and even spots within about 15 miles of the coast will have difficulty accumulating much more than a coating to an inch.  Farther inland, however, one to two inches of snow will accumulate in the suburbs north and west of Boston and through South-Central MA into Northern CT & the Pioneer Valley of MA.  Farther north, from Central and Western MA all the way into Central VT and NH and Southern ME three to five and even as much as five to eight inches of snow are expected, meaning road crews will be treating and scraping late this evening into the overnight, with rain and snow showers winding down around dawn Tuesday and giving way to some sunshine with highs in the 50s for melting to begin quickly.  Another disturbance brings a chance of rain or mixed rain and snow showers Wednesday, with the balance of the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast showing high temperatures mostly in the 50s, and several chances for showers along the way including, for a change in our recent weather pattern, on the weekend.

A Shot of Thursday Morning Snow Before Friday Warmth

S LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_NBCU_ACTIVE (9)unshine bathes New England Wednesday as dry air returns for a brief stand.  The dry air is also cool by nature, meaning morning temperatures in the 20s and 30s won’t exceed either side of 50 degrees by afternoon, with a light wind allowing for a sea breeze to develop during the afternoon.  With ocean water temperatures only in the lower 40s, a sea breeze has a noticeable impact this time of the year, so highs near 50 at the coast will probably be short-lived before turning around and cooling down considerably later in the day.  Gradually increasing and lowering clouds Wednesday evening through night with temperatures either side of the freezing mark will eventually yield some showers of snow and rain by predawn Thursday morning, filling in as a steady combination of wet and white as the morning wears on.  Road temperatures in most spots will be warm enough to preclude significant impact, though temperatures in the hilly terrain of Central and Western MA into Southern/Central VT and Western NH may cool enough for some film on the roads and a solid one to two inches of snow – with as much as three in the Berkshires and Southern Green Mountains – on the grass.  Inside of Route 495, Eastern MA will find some snow mixing in, but little more than a coating to perhaps an inch on the grass is expected. By Thursday afternoon, most areas will have changed to just a raw, chilly rain with patchy drizzle lingering all the way into the evening and likely through the overnight for some.  This makes Friday’s start a murky one with another round of passing showers possible as warmer air nudges into New England, eventually bringing a strengthening southwest wind, emerging sun and temperatures bumping around or over 70 degrees in some of Southern New England, with 60s north.  The exceptional late spring warmth won’t last long, though, with a storm center moving across Southern Canada dragging a cold front from west to east across New England Friday evening, sparking scattered showers and even some thunderstorms in the warm air, but heralding in a cool, brisk spring air for both weekend days.  Sunshine will be abundant in the crisp air Saturday and Sunday, but the next round of moisture arrives Monday with another chance of snow and rain showers, eventually giving way to gradually moderating temperatures for the middle and end of next week in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Elevated Brush Fire Danger Ahead of Friday Showers

CaptureThursday’s air feels much cooler than most New Englanders have become accustomed to in the last couple of weeks, but we’ve been spoiled by much above normal temperatures – with highs in the 40s to lower 50s, we’re running near, or in some cases still slightly above, where we should be for today’s date.  Nonetheless, a light easterly wind off a 40 to 42 degree ocean water is keeping not only the coastline cool, but areas dozens of miles inland as well, though warmest spots Thursday afternoon will be farthest from the ocean in Southern New England, where high temperatures should rise well into the 50s.  With dry weather continuing, brush fire danger continues to be elevated, particularly inland, and burning brush is discouraged while caution needs to exercised with small potential ignition sources like cigarettes, as well – these are the two leading causes of brush fires in New England!  Showers moving swiftly east out of the Central Plains will arrive to New England as soon as late Thursday evening, spreading from west to east between 9 PM and 1 AM.  Friday morning’s commute will start with scattered, mostly light showers in Eastern New England, with steadier rain ramping up in Western New England and snow across the North Country, where it will take until midday to change to rain and two to four inches of accumulation are expected from the Great North Woods of NH to the mountains of Maine and Northern Maine.  Farther south, the heaviest and steadiest rain will fall between 9 AM and 3 PM, departing for all but Central and Eastern Maine before sunset, allowing for breaks of late day and evening sun.  As the showers swing through, a southerly wind will strengthen and gust to 40 mph at times, transporting warmer air into New England and boosting daytime high temperatures to near 60 – even into the 60s in some of Connecticut and Western MA after the rain ends.  The dry air taking over behind Friday’s showers will stick around all weekend, save for some mountain snow showers Saturday morning, making for fresh air and lots of outdoor options with so many indoor events canceled due to coronavirus concerns.  The air will gradually become cooler, so that Sunday’s highs will only be in the 40s and that air sticks around through Monday.  By St. Patrick’s Day, showers re-enter the forecast ahead of another gradual but steady warming anticipated for the middle to end of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

One Day of Showers in an Otherwise Great Setup for Yardwork

LKN_NBCU_POP_D2_NEWENGA brand new, spring air has moved into New England for midweek.  The showers preceding this new air along a cold front Tuesday evening were limited and the breeze that followed them already was quieting Tuesday morning, completing its job of transitioning New England from much warmer than normal air to less unusual, but still mild air with Wednesday high temperatures in the 50s.  The dry nature of the new air ensures plenty of sunshine for awhile, though clouds associated with a weakening disturbance moving east after producing snow in the Great Lakes will fill the sky later Wednesday into Wednesday evening, moving along and clearing the sky Wednesday night.  With a quieting wind, conditions will be ripe for quick cooling overnight Wednesday night with low temperatures forecast to hit the 20s in Central and Northern New England, and around 30 in much of Southern New England.  Nonetheless, with most of our upcoming days dry except for showers Friday that may mix with snow in the far North Country, we’re entering a pattern perfect for yardwork.  Poison Ivy has yet to leaf out, thorn bushes are only just starting to green up in spots and the ground is still soft, but not saturated for most – all great conditions for making progress in the yard and taking out the driveway snow stakes from the winter.  With Friday’s rain showers remaining transient, the weekend will be bright and dry for most of us, save for some Saturday mountain flurries, and temperatures will dip from highs in the 50s Saturday to 40s Sunday, making vests and spring jackets a commonplace accessory.  Though early next week starts cool and dry, the chance of showers increases around Saint Patrick’s Day as milder air makes inroads toward New England, eventually bumping temperatures back around 60 degrees by week’s end for the start of astronomical spring toward the end of our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

As Cooler Air Closes in on New England, Mostly Dry Pattern Continues

LKN_NBCU_APCP_NEWENGA backdoor cold front – a push of cool air from the northeast and east, rather than the usual direction approaching from the west – sent the temperature dropping from the Maine coast to Southeast New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts through the Boston area Tuesday morning.  For some, this new, cool air will be insurmountable when it comes to warming up Tuesday – from the Seacoast of New Hampshire northeast up the coast, it’s unlikely we’ll warm beyond the 50s.  Elsewhere, it may be a slow start but even Boston should find a southwest wind eventually returning by Tuesday afternoon to bump temperatures into the 60s.  All the while, a more typical cold front will be approaching from the west and will arrive to New England from west to east with showers ahead of it Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Rain amounts won’t be significant, with about a quarter of an inch falling in Northern New England and only a few hundredths of an inch – enough for a few small puddles – in Southern New England, and giving way to returning dry weather Wednesday and Thursday.  In fact, when our First Alert Team looks at the next week, we don’t see more than about a third of an inch of rain all told for the Boston to Providence Corridor, and not much more than a half inch to three quarters of an inch in Northern and Western New England, meaning with no leaves on the trees to shade last year’s dead brush and leaves on forest and grassy floors, we’ll find brush fire danger continuing to rise quite high in the several days ahead.  The dry weather and relative warmth will also send the pollen count up across New England, with the exception of one day of returning showers Friday, which actually may end as a touch of snow in Northern New England Friday night to give a little bit of fresh snow for spring skiers headed to the mountains this weekend.  Otherwise, the weekend looks dry and bright for New England Saturday and Sunday, with cooler air in place particularly Sunday into Monday.  Our next chance of showers arrives Tuesday and heralds the arrival of warmer than normal air all over again, delivering showers on Saint Patrick’s Day and temperatures around 60° on Thursday, when the vernal equinox marks the start of astronomical spring, and spring on your calendar, just prior to midnight Thursday night.

As Boston Eclipses 70° Monday, Northern Maine Sees Snow

LKN_FCST_TODAYS_HIGHS_METRO_NEWENG_ACTIVEIncredible weather is shaping up for New England’s return to work and school coming off our return to Daylight Saving Time, so the combination of daylight into the evening with incredibly comfortable air after work and school will draw kids and adults, alike, to area playgrounds, parks and streets.  Monday high temperatures will reach the 60s for the vast majority of New England with warmer spots, including Boston and surrounding suburbs, reaching or just barely exceeding 70 degrees Monday afternoon and still hanging in the 60s into the evening.  In a twist of classic New England weather, a sharp front – or divider of air – will be found over Northern Maine, keeping enough cold air in place for the Crown of Maine in Northern Aroostook County to see periodic snow both Monday morning and again Monday evening with three to five inches of accumulation by Tuesday morning.  Elsewhere, Monday night temperatures won’t drop below the 40s for most, allowing temperatures to rise well into the 60s Tuesday, even under a sky of increasing and thickening clouds ahead of an approaching cold front.  The cold front moving from west to east crosses New England Tuesday evening and night, dragging rain showers with it and leaving cooler and dry air behind for Wednesday, with sunshine and high temperatures still above normal in the 50s.  Even cooler air is anticipated Thursday with clouds increasing ahead of an approaching strong upper level atmospheric disturbance that will bring showers Thursday night through Friday, then another shot of relatively cool and dry air for the weekend, though the relative nature of that cooling means we still will probably be near or above normal for daytime high temperatures this weekend.  This bodes well for the big St. Patrick’s Day Parade in South Boston on Sunday, set to be broadcast on NECN, and although our First Alert Weather Team expects an increased chance of showers heading into the first half of next week including Saint Patrick’s Day, itself, temperatures should continue to run warmer than normal in our exclusive 10-day forecast.