Daily Weather Discussion

Even With Cold Air Preceding It, Next Storm Will Bring Rain to New England

BLOG1After a nation’s-coldest reading of -22 degrees in Estcourt Station, Maine, this morning, a slow-moving and small atmospheric disturbance drifting north over the waters east of New England today is carrying a few pockets of clouds northward adjacent to and over the Eastern New England coastal plain, blotting out the sun for a few hours in each spot it impacts along the way.  Though no snowflakes are falling from these clouds yet, late day and evening through the overnight will bring some snow showers to the coast of Maine, particularly Midcoast points Downeast, where Washington County may receive as much as a fresh inch or just more than an inch by dawn Wednesday.  As the disturbance reverses course and drops south in response to a cold front moving through early Wednesday, a few flurries and snow showers will graze the Eastern New England coast and especially Cape Cod Wednesday morning before departing and yielding to another reinforcing shot of cool and dry air.  Our next storm will be developing in the nation’s midsection Thursday, tapping the Gulf of Mexico for moisture and tracking northeast with a notable absence of snow – that is, the storm will drag enough warmth northward that it’ll be tough to get much snow at all from this storm, including here at home where northern mountains may start with a light wintry mix Friday night but also will end up with mostly rain Saturday.  Sunday probably will bring lingering showers for some of us, though drier air will attempt to move back in, and Monday we’ll watch one last round of energy that may deliver some raindrops or snowflakes before departing until the next storm chance somewhere around next Friday, at the end of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Quiet and Cold Pattern Rolls On...Ocean-Enhanced Flurries Possible at the Coast

BLOG1As the cold and dry weather rolls on for the Northeast, a new cold front is pressing south through New England today, subtly reinforcing the cold and dry air while pushing the wind to blow from the north.  A north wind of cold air over relatively warm ocean water creates some ocean-effect clouds on Cape Cod today with a few flurries by evening, then a light and variable wind Tuesday and Wednesday should allow some of the ocean clouds to dance along the coastline of New England farther to the north, too, meaning the chance of flurries expands along the coasts, but no substantial snow is expected.  A weak disturbance moves through the sky over New England later Thursday to Thursday night as warmer air begins arriving aloft and this combination may trigger at least a little light snow, particularly in Northern New England, but we’ll be waiting on the next, bigger storm system to arrive at week’s end.  A deep southeast wind flow will develop through the atmosphere Friday into Saturday, meaning when precipitation arrives overnight Friday night, even if it starts as a wintry mix in the mountains, nearly all of us will find a change to rain, particularly as the bulk of it falls Saturday.  There’s a chance some of the rain may linger into Sunday and perhaps enough cold air returns to end as snow showers in the mountains before a seasonable and dry start to next week in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Weekend Storm Won't Be a Big Blow to Ski Country Snow

BLOG1 BLOG1 BLOG1 BLOG1Wind has finally quieted across New England today, so wind chill is less of a factor.  This means, while temperatures may actually fall just shy of readings the past couple of days, it will actually feel just a tad milder.  Sunshine in Eastern New England fades behind increasing clouds ahead of the next disturbance – a weak system delivering scattered light rain and snow showers from west to east Friday afternoon and evening, not leaving much accumulation except perhaps near an inch in the higher terrain of Berkshire County and perhaps the far Southern Greens. Nonetheless, even a small amount of fresh moisture on Southern and Western New England roads prior to partial clearing and cooling below freezing after dusk means some patchy black ice is possible overnight in Southern and Western New England.  The weekend is split: Saturday will be dry and Sunday will be wet.  Rain arrives from southwest to northeast Saturday late evening and overnight, starting as a very brief burst of snow in the western mountains and hills, and a longer burst of one to three inches of snow in the North Country, with higher amounts in far northeast New Hampshire and Northern Maine.  By Sunday morning, rain will be falling for the majority of New England, falling heaviest through midday and accumulating half an inch to an inch before tapering to scattered showers for most by later afternoon, in time for the Patriots game with a gusty easterly wind for most of the day. Monday will be the sole mild day next workweek, as cold air returns and we watch storm potential for Tuesday night (low potential) and next weekend (moderate potential) in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day Forecast.

New England's Window of Quiet Weather Is Slowly Closing

LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA (1)The end of our recent breather in the weather is in sight for New England, but there won’t be many complaints at the end of our Thursday.  Aside from a narrow swath of light snow ejecting into the Gulf of Maine from Central and Eastern parts of the Pine Tree State, New England is fairly quiet today, save for an active northwest wind.  In fact, while Central and Southern New England have been breezy for the last 36-48 hours, some Northern New England communities saw little wind during the heavy snow, so now that wind is increasing, new power outages are resulting in the mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, we’ll salvage not only a bright and dry Thursday, but a quiet Thursday night and dry daylight hours Friday until an approaching warm front triggers some pockets of light rain and snow after dinner Friday evening into the first half of the overnight. Total snow and rain amounts will be quite limited and predominantly in Southern and Western New England, but that bit of moisture on area roads may require some treatment with temperatures near freezing.  Clouds will be stubborn Saturday as the air in the sky over New England slowly but steadily warms ahead of an approaching storm over the Great Lakes, poised to deliver enough warmth for Saturday night and Sunday rain, eventually even ending as rain showers in much of Northern New England after a burst of mountain snow at the onset.  By the time the Patriots take the field at Gillette Stadium Sunday afternoon, the heaviest rain will be over with just lingering showers here and there, and a break in the action until the next potential storm later Tuesday into early Wednesday, more likely to deliver a broader area of snow as colder air moves in.  The rest of the 10-day looks cold, leading to another potential storm by late next weekend.

For Most, A Breather Between Storms Lasts a Few Days

BLOG1For a change, a storm-free stretch is descending upon most of New England for a few days.  Of course, snow has, incredibly, still been falling in the northern and western mountains as tens of thousands remain without power due to tree damage on power lines from the heavy weight of snow, and another few inches of snow are accumulating today.  Elsewhere, clouds will overtake sunshine this afternoon with scattered flurries and a chilly breeze making high temperatures in the 40s feel more like the 30s.  A busy wind continues Wednesday night through Thursday with cool but not cold temperatures continuing and snow finally tapering in the mountains, though renewed snow will fall Wednesday night into Thursday in Northern and Eastern Maine.  Another dry and cool day Friday precedes a warm front that will moderate the air this weekend – though that warm front making passage overnight Friday night may deliver at least some light snow and rain, likely leaving plenty of clouds on Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday, a storm center strengthening over the Great Lakes will thrust warmth northward, meaning rain is much more likely than snow for most of New England, though we’re concerned about the potential of snow to extended freezing rain in the North Country and will be watching that potential very carefully in the coming days.  After a brief break in the action early next week, another storm center will strengthen south of New England late next Tuesday into Wednesday, and how close the storm comes will be the key – by that point, enough cold air will be in place for snow to move into the Boston suburbs if the storm is close enough.  Regardless, a cooler pattern settles in to end next week in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

With a Foot on the Ground and 100K Without Power, Another Foot to Fall in Mountainous Terrain

LKN_BOARD_STATS_1COLUMN_NEWENG (1) LKN_BOARD_STATS_1COLUMN_NEWENG (1)Snow continues to pile up in Northern New England where over a foot of heavy, wet snow has meant perfect conditions for building the base in ski and snowmobile country but also has knocked out power to nearly 100,000 customers from Western MA through Northern and Central New England.  Though no arctic blast is expected in the coming days, the mountains will see periodic snow continuing all the way through Wednesday, while the rest of New England very slowly finds a drying trend as an increasing southwest wind takes hold for most.  Nonetheless, small rivers like the Assabet and Sudbury in Massachusetts have come into flood stage, inundating flood-prone, low-lying areas near the riverbanks.  A few days of dry weather – outside of the continuing mountain snow – will take hold through week’s end, when a new approaching storm seems likely to weaken as it moves into New England Friday night, perhaps bringing some very light rain or snow but more likely to cloud the sky through Saturday, in anticipation of the next bona fide storm Saturday night through Sunday, destined to deliver mostly rain.  In this active weather pattern, another storm appears likely by midweek next week, and that one may bring both rain and snow to the region in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Another Soaker South, Great Base-Building Snow for New England's Ski and Snowmobile Country

LKN_PRECIP_ACCUM_AMOUNTS_FCST_NEWENG (5) LKN_PRECIP_ACCUM_AMOUNTS_FCST_NEWENG (5) LKN_PRECIP_ACCUM_AMOUNTS_FCST_NEWENG (5)With our active weather pattern continuing, another storm comes as little surprise to New Englanders.  Of course, each storm is a bit different in what it offers, and this go round with wet weather will deliver another one to two inches of rain for Southern New England but this time a 12 to 18 inch snowstorm for the mountains of the North!  Skiers and snowmobilers will delight in this heavy, pasty snow that will serve as an excellent base, while residents of Southern New England who prefer to “keep it in the mountains” will get your wishes filled, too.  After scattered showers during the day, expect steadier and heavier rain to expand from southwest to northeast from 4 PM to 8 PM, respectively, slowing the commute for Connecticut and Western Massachusetts, and delivering steadiest rain around or just after dinner east. While big puddles and rising smaller rivers to minor flood stage are expected for many, an increasing east wind will gust to 50 mph on Cape Cod and the Islands late this evening and overnight, producing some isolated power outages before shifting to blow from the southwest early Tuesday morning as rainfall shuts down.  A high tide just after midday and midnight will result in some splashover and perhaps very minor coastal flooding in typically vulnerable spots, while most of the North Country will be in full snowstorm conditions Tuesday morning. Though most dry out Tuesday, the mountains continue to snow.  The midweek and late week look drier, but continued cool, with a glancing blow from a storm possible, though not likely, Friday night, then a storm more likely Saturday night into Sunday, likely to contain both rain and snow for New England. Our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast shows the busy weather pattern continues, with another storm possible midweek next week.

After Stinging Thanksgiving Cold, Many Will Rain Saturday Night

BLOG1Happy Thanksgiving to You and Yours.  A strong dome of Canadian high pressure has delivered a blast of arctic air to New England today, with a steady wind coupling with highs only in the teens and 20s to produce wind chill values either side of zero, even at the warmest time of the day.  This arctic air is dry, which means sunshine for nearly all of us, though a cold wind over the relatively warm ocean waters has meant periodic ocean-effect clouds and flurries on Outer Cape Cod, and should mean flurries for more of Cape Cod this evening into tonight.  Otherwise, temperatures will fall to the single digits and teens overnight and while the wind will be slackening, it’ll still be breezy enough for wind chill values to hang below zero.  The wind quiets considerably Friday and that means wind chill really isn’t a factor, so it’ll feel about 20-25 degrees milder than Thanksgiving.  Amazingly, the air in New England moderates enough on Saturday under sun and clouds with a southerly wind to make our next storm Saturday night into Sunday warm enough for raindrops in all but Northern New England, where a wintry mix changes to raindrops.  After a brief breather later Sunday into Monday, the next storm Monday into Tuesday also may be rain south and a mix north.  Thereafter, we’ll gradually dry out through the middle and end of next week, but while today’s arctic air certainly relents, we also see the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast remaining cooler than normal.

Transitioning from Snow to Cold Through Thanksgiving

BLOG1While the Boston Metro and most Metropolitan areas of Southern New England see mostly rain from today’s storm, snow has continued to add up in far Northern and Western Massachusetts points north.  While a daytime November snow event has decidedly less impact on roads – especially treated ones – than its counterparts in the dead of winter, those roads that aren’t treated as heavily have become slick and snow-covered in the snow zone, and even treated interstates occasionally become overwhelmed in heavier bursts of snow.  While Southern New England will ship out the rain as a last-gasp snow shower during the afternoon, Central and Southern New England will see at least lightly accumulating snow lingering into the evening.  Clearing tonight leads to some sun Wednesday before building clouds and scattered afternoon and evening snow showers and squalls ahead of an approaching arctic cold front that delivers the much-advertised bitter blast of air for Wednesday night through Thanksgiving night, producing daytime highs only around 20 with wind chill values either side of zero on Thanksgiving Day, leading to a change of plans for many high school football games and likely some Turkey Day foot races.  Wind eases Thursday night into Friday but cold air lingers with overnight low temperatures mostly in the single digits. Saturday brings some moderation before the clash of changing air results in developing rain and northern snow Sunday into Monday.  Temperatures remain cool through the remainder of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.

Tuesday Morning Wintry Mix to Significantly Impact Morning Commute

LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (2) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (2) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (2)A messy start to the week will lead to record cold on Thanksgiving Day.  Some Monday morning slick spots over interior Central New England were the result of a rather weak disturbance crossing our region.  As the last of mixed showers exit stage right Monday midday, leaving cloudy skies and drier conditions for the afternoon, another disturbance is already approaching from the Ohio Valley, set to arrive overnight tonight and last through Tuesday early afternoon.  Like its predecessor, this new storm system won’t be exceptionally strong and will be moving through air marginal for rain or snow, meaning a rain/snow line is likely to set up across Central and Northern Massachusetts as precipitation begins lightly late Monday evening and intensifies for the Tuesday morning commute to midday.  Due to a mix with rain, the immediate Boston Metro is unlikely to pick up more than an inch, but those outside of Route 95 to the north and west may see a couple of inches, and outside of Route 495 the potential rises to a few to several inches of snow, with the greatest snowfall expected in Western MA, Southern VT, Central/Southern NH and Southern ME where the entire event should feature snow rather than rain.  Significant wind and waves aren’t expected with this storm, so the biggest impact is on local travel.  An arctic cold front approaches Wednesday, triggering afternoon and evening scattered snow squalls from north to south, respectively, ushering in the coldest air of the young season for Thanksgiving Day, when highs are only expected to reach 20-25 degrees and wind chill values will hover either side of zero, putting Thanksgiving Day road races and football games in jeopardy, though moderation is expected especially by Saturday in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.