A large dome of high pressure – fair weather – is building into the Northeast and while that usually means a stretch of bright and fabulous weather, there are a few subtle features that make our predicted weather just a bit different this time around. One thing is for sure: new, less humid and pleasant air is streaming into New England and promises a great feeling in the air Wednesday into the weekend. An upper level disturbance moving through New England’s sky this morning is delivering variable clouds and a few sprinkles from west to east, and may even bring a shower or thunderstorm to southwest Connecticut by day’s end. Otherwise, the new air holds temperatures shy of 80 for nearly all communities not only today…but Thursday and Friday, as well. By Friday, a persistent though weak onshore wind flow will have introduced enough ocean moisture that, not only will we see clouds battling against the sun as we do Wednesday and Thursday, but clouds may actually win out Friday, with some morning drizzle or sprinkles even a possibility near the coast. In Northern and Western New England, both Thursday and Friday may bring isolated thunder until Saturday the chance grows higher in these communities. Farther east, though a Saturday afternoon shower isn’t impossible, they also aren’t likely. By Sunday, the wind direction changes and we open the door to deep summer warmth again, with highs in the 80s Sunday, then around 90 Monday and likely Tuesday with increasing humidity and a resultant increased chance of scattered thunder. Even as a quick shot of cooler air arrives toward the end of next week, we’ll still be talking about daytime highs around or over 80, and another rebound of warmth is possible by next weekend.
Daily Weather Discussion
A First Alert continues from our weather team today, owing to expected locally heavy downpours that will slow some for the evening commute and may cause localized flooding, especially in urban centers and poor drainage spots. Although damaging storms aren’t likely, it’s not impossible Central and Southern New England sees an isolated gust of strong wind from one of the stronger downpours or thunderstorms. Overnight, the rain will gradually consolidate to Cape Cod and far Southeast New England, where rain will continue until early Wednesday morning. A cool and drying north-northeast wind takes hold Wednesday, delivering increasing sunshine with the most stubborn clouds over Cape Cod in the morning and high temperatures not surpassing the 70s, north-to-south. Thursday through Saturday will all feature a slow-moving disturbance to our west, raising the possibility for afternoon or early evening pop-up showers or thunder, but the highest chance will be found in Western New England. By Sunday, the chance of thunder grows regionwide, though an enjoyable day is still expected for most, with high temperatures gradually rising through the period into the 80s by Sunday and likely to stay in the 80s with a return to our familiar summer pattern for all of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
An incredible Monday is brought to us by the winning combination of dry air and sunshine, teaming with a steady west and southwest breeze to boost temperatures into the middle 80s. A cold front is slowly approaching New England from the north and will bring scattered showers and thunder only to the far North Country of New England Monday – elsewhere, still well in advance of the cold front, warmth will continue building in and be followed by increasingly humid air overnight Monday night with building clouds and a mild night. Tuesday the humidity will be palpable for Central and Southern New England, and this will allow morning showers in Northern and Central New England to slowly build into downpours and thunder Monday midday onward, with some of the torrential downpours fueled by tropical air resulting into localized flooding and big puddles on roads. Given the potential for localized flooding and delays to the evening commute, we’ve hoisted a First Alert for Tuesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday, expect shifting winds to lower the humidity and likely ship showers out very early in the day for a drier but cooler day. The cool air will stick around through the end of the week and while dry air will try to hang on, a slow-moving disturbance from the west will raise the chance of showers by late Thursday into Friday, particularly the farther west one is in New England. Summer lovers, fear not: we expect a mid-summer redux to begin late this weekend and last through next week with temperatures into the 80s again in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
Although most of the weekend will be lovely for New England, there will be some noteworthy exceptions. Friday certainly is getting us started out on the right foot: dry air has arrived, sweeping humidity to our south and bringing out plenty of sun that will boost temperatures into the 80s – without much humidity, that will feel fantastic. A strong, energetic disturbance is approaching New England from Canada and will be close enough to spark some scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon in the far North Country, but only in the North Country where one or two storms may have some gusty wind. Expect clear skies for most overnight Friday night with evening temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s falling to the 50s for many, owing to the dry and cool nature of the air. Don’t forget to look skyward Friday night! The Perseid Meteor Shower is a perennial favorite and technically peaks Sunday, Monday and Tuesday predawn, but you’ll still be able to catch some “shooting stars” in the Friday night sky. Saturday the approaching disturbance aloft moves directly overhead, and this will mean rapid development of clouds and showers in Northern New England Saturday morning, expanding in areal coverage and intensity as the day wears on and holding temperatures shy of 70 for some in the North…while Central and Southern New England starts with sun before clouds billow and eventually some scattered showers and sprinkles meander south, though should remain scattered at worst amidst an active breeze. The transient disturbance marches east by Sunday, leaving sunshine and a gorgeous day in its wake for the second half of the weekend with breezy and pleasant air that will warm well into the 80s Monday before a chance of midweek rain. The early call on next weekend, yet again in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, is looking good!
The air is about to change in New England as a cold front approaches from the northwest, but not before one more day of warm and humid conditions Thursday. In Northern New England, periodic showers and rain will drift from west to east through the day, eventually leading to some renewed scattered thunderstorms in Vermont and Western MA that may be severe in a few spots. Southern New England sees sun and clouds with temperatures rising well into the 80s, but this sets the stage for the scattered storms developing in Western New England to migrate east and perhaps hold together as at least scattered thunder from particularly the MA Turnpike northward Thursday late day and evening, even beyond dinnertime. Behind the scattered showers and thunder, the new air starts moving in almost immediately, but it won’t come rushing in – rather, Eastern and Southern New England may still feel humid first thing Friday before a westerly breeze lowers the dew point with enough dry air for plentiful sun and temperatures 80 to 85 for most of us, though a pop-up afternoon shower isn’t impossible in the northern mountains. Saturday, the air aloft turns quite chilly with a northern jet stream disturbance dropping south from Canada, and this will promote clusters of showers and perhaps even bursts of steadier rain in Northern New England where highs should be capped around 70, while Southern New England will find building clouds and the chance of an isolated shower midday to afternoon with an active breeze and highs closer to 80. Saturday’s disturbance keeps moving, so Sunday will be terrific regionwide and likely lead to a great start to the week next week before another chance of showers mounts toward midweek – to be determined whether that’s a standard scattered shower/thunderstorm potential, or perhaps a more organized rain storm that would keep temperatures cooler on Tuesday or Wednesday – we’ll keep you posted with our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
Our NBC10 Boston, NECN and Telemundo New England Weather Team continues a First Alert for most of New England this afternoon and evening as humid and warm air will team with an upper level disturbance to touch off showers and thunderstorms – some of which will be damaging. The morning starts with muggy sun and clouds but by midday, weak showers moving through Connecticut will strengthen and expand as they jog northeast, only the first of what will be a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the second half of the day, evening and into the overnight. Heavy rain is a given with all storms, owing to the humid air, but locally damaging wind will occur in stronger storms and a tornado is not entirely impossible with shifting winds aloft. The lowest risk of thunderstorms will be Southeast MA and the Cape, where we’ll wait until late evening and night for storms to arrive. Thursday should start with predawn rain that breaks into isolated showers and thunder as humid air lingers. By Friday, winds of change will carry more comfortable air into New England but temperatures will remain warm…then the weekend delivers slightly cooler temperatures and great weather, save for a North Country shower or storm Saturday. It looks like a similar pattern sets up next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, with a heightened chance of showers at midweek, then what could be another great weekend, though right now that’s still just a bit off the 10-day.
Humidity is making a comeback to New England today – fog and low altitude clouds heralded its arrival for some of Southern New England early in the day and will return in pockets overnight, while occasional showers and downpours skirt over Cape Cod and far Southeastern MA from time to time, even as a brief period of rain for a time Tuesday afternoon as a coastal storm brushes by to the southeast. Elsewhere, clouds will gradually increase as humidity gradually increases and scattered showers and thunder from Upstate New York will wander into Western New England by evening before dying. Pockets of fog and clouds will develop in the humid air overnight Tuesday night, making for a muggy and, in spots, murky start Wednesday. A few upper level disturbances rippling through the winds aloft will trigger scattered showers and thunder Wednesday, with the greatest focus likely later in the day and the strongest showers and storms north of I-84 and the MA Turnpike. Downpours are likely given the humid air and locally damaging wind is a possibility in a few stronger storms, which is why you’ll notice a First Alert stamp on our exclusive 10-day forecast. Thursday is another day with a First Alert, owing to the probability of more scattered showers and thunderstorms that may, at least for some locales, pack a punch before drier and more comfortable air arrives for the weekend. Most of the weekend looks bright, with the exception possibly being scattered showers or thunder in the far North Country Saturday afternoon. Warmth and humidity looks to rebuild again by the middle of next week.
A slug of very dry air not only ensures showers and thunderstorms won’t mar our Monday, but also is delivering an incredibly comfortable start to the workweek, regionwide. This kind of dry air really can cool off under clear skies at night, and some valleys of Northern New England woke to temperatures in the 30s early Monday! On the flip side, dry air also warms fast and we’re seeing that regionwide as highs land either side of 80 with coastal communities around or just shy of 80 with sea breezes and inland communities in the lower to middle 80s. Another cool night is expected Monday night, though not as cool as its predecessor, though humidity will already start increasing on Cape Cod and at the South Coast. With a southerly wind, that more humid air carries north Tuesday, with a sticky feeling returning for most of Southern New England by afternoon and the chance for a morning to midday Southeast MA shower on the leading edge of the increased moisture, then the chance of a few afternoon inland showers as a weak disturbance approaches later in the day. Warmth and humidity will peak Wednesday and Thursday, meaning the chance of showers and thunderstorms also peaks on these two days, ahead of another remarkable weekend of weather with comfortable air, sunshine and highs around 80. It looks like our pattern of not only favorable weekends but also midweek warmth, humidity and storms will continue into next week, as the end of our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast shows the midweek turning unsettled again next week.
An incredible stretch of weather is yet again setting up for New England. A large dome of high pressure has delivered enough dry air for abundant sunshine, a light wind promoting coastal sea breezes and cool nights with comfortable days – at least, for now. After a great start Saturday, there’s a 20-40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm Saturday late day and evening, particularly inland, as more humid air slowly moves back into New England. Southern New England will notice the change in air Saturday evening and night, whether or not your town sees a thunderstorm, and humidity will linger for the southern half of New England on Sunday with another low but present chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. In Northern New England, Sunday actually brings some really pleasant and comfortable air that will likely almost eliminate the chance of showers and make for a splendid day. The comfortable, dry air in Northern New England will sink south for a great Monday far and wide, before deeper heat and humidity return for the midweek. Though we aren’t forecasting another heat wave yet, we will have four days – Tuesday through Thursday – all within a couple degrees of 90, so that’s a possibility. The early call on next weekend? The same as the last several when they’ve first appeared on our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast: nice!
New air is taking hold of New England! Our heat wave has broken, though it took locally damaging thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening to do it, and though Thursday dawned humid for most of Central and Southern New England, the drier air that was palpable in a cool start across the North Country is bleeding south and will noticeably decrease humidity for all but Cape Cod by day’s end. Because the cold front – the leading edge of the new, cooler and drier air – has not cleared Cape Cod yet, there’s a very limited chance of a new shower or sprinkle on Cape Cod by day’s end. Expect a crisp, refreshingly cool overnight Thursday night with lows either side of 60 in Southern New England, and even some 40s in the North Country! All of this leads to a bright and super-pleasant Friday. Saturday and Sunday each bring a weak upper-level atmospheric disturbance, but limited conditions for showers and thunderstorms, so right now we have a low probability of some isolated storms on each day, with the greatest chance likely to be found inland. As for deeper heat and humidity, right now our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast shows that deep summer air returning for the middle of next week, and while it’s still too early to say for sure, we believe another heat wave certainly is possible with high temperatures near 90 degrees Tuesday through Friday…starting August out on a warm note, which is contributing to our team’s August monthly forecast of warmer-than-normal conditions overall for the month.