Daily Weather Discussion

Chance of Showers Increases Father's Day...But Mild, Decent Weekend Weather

LKN_FATHERSDAY_3PARTFather’s Day weekend in New England, on the whole, delivers great weather…but there will be some moments that serve as exceptions to the rule, and that may include a couple of periods on Father’s Day Sunday, itself.  Starting with the here and now, Friday has delivered the return of sunshine, though the upper level atmospheric energy that drove Thursday’s rain and wind is moving overhead, carrying a pool of cold air aloft with it, encouraging the development of puffy, cumulus clouds that will yield a few Northern New England showers from late morning onward with a rumble of thunder possible in the afternoon, and a few Southern New England showers between 2 PM and 6 PM.  Skies clear for many overnight, though variable clouds return late to Northern New England, and Saturday brings a blend of sun and clouds with the most clouds north and a busy southwest wind.  In fact, the combined effect of southwesterly wind gusts to 35 mph with some sun and a mild air will boost Saturday high temperatures to around 80 degrees with a really dry, comfortable air.  The busy wind will create a decent amount of chop on both ocean and lake waters, making for a bumpy ride for pleasure craft boaters, but the dry air keeps any showers away, save for a possible evening shower at the Canadian border ahead of a slowly approaching cold front.  The same slow cold front sags southward into New England on Sunday, raising the chance of showers and thunder...and while timing those showers is a bit of a challenge at this point owing to uncertain timing of upper level disturbances interacting with the front, we believe the most likely times for showers include a round of showers when we wake up Sunday morning, then some scattered showers and thunder Sunday afternoon.  While these showers likely will not make for a washout at all, and many of us will remember the day with decent weather, Saturday is the better bet if you have flexible weekend plans.  The elevated chance of showers continues through much of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Thursday rain gives way to Friday Improvement, Saturday Sun

BLOG1Rain will fall heavily at times Thursday in Southern and Eastern New England, dropping either side of an inch of water with some higher amounts in Southeast Massachusetts, where rumbles of afternoon thunder are possible.  Winds will generally blow from the northeast, ensuring a cool rain all day with highs struggling to get much beyond 60, though Cape Cod will see a southerly wind gusting to 40 mph, helping to boost temperatures into the middle 60s.  Expect rain to taper to showers Thursday evening with very little rain falling overnight Thursday night – in fact, the weather will be much improved in time for Thursday evening’s Red Sox game, but it’ll be up to the ground crew as to whether the field is too wet.  Areas of fog are possible Thursday night, even with partial clearing above, and limited sun Friday will boost temperatures into the 70s.  The atmospheric energy that drove Thursday’s storm will pass over New England on Friday, meaning afternoon scattered showers are possible, melting away after dusk.  Saturday looks amazing – sunshine, mild air, dry air and a fresh breeze with temperatures rising into the 80s.  By Sunday, humidity will gradually rise and with the approach of a very sluggish cold front from Canada, the chance of showers and thunder rises, but we aren’t expecting a washed out Father’s Day.  The chance of showers and thunder cropping up will remain elevated early next week as humidity and warmth are likely to linger, at least through the first half of the week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

A Shot of Cool Rain Thursday Just a Speed Bump in Mild Weather Ahead

LKN_NBCU_APCP_NEWENG (1)A gorgeous Wednesday in New England comes courtesy of a dome of high pressure, chock full of dry air.  Well to the west, a storm center is moving into the Great Lakes, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around that storm center is inducing a southerly wind across much of the Eastern United States, transporting increasingly warm and humid air northward.  Here at home, New England has too much dry air – and cool air, by nature, even though sun warms it during the afternoons - to simply replace it with warmth or humidity, so the clash of airmasses is destined not only to bring increasing clouds Wednesday evening and overnight, but developing rain from south to north Thursday morning.  Most of us squeeze in a dry Thursday morning commute before the rain arrives, with heaviest downpours slated for Thursday afternoon, but the presence of clouds and cool air will mean high temperatures won’t exceed the 60s for most…and even 50s for some.  Some thunderstorms are likely to be embedded in the rain Thursday afternoon, and lingering showers if not still some remaining downpours will likely slow the Thursday evening drive with rainfall totals from our exclusive in-house forecast system predicted to be around an inch.  The weather starts improving as quickly as Friday morning with sunshine, though the upper level atmospheric energy that helped spawn Thursday’s rainstorm will be moving directly over New England on Friday, and this should mean blossoming clouds with some scattered showers developing by midday and continuing to crop up during Friday afternoon, particularly inland.  Nonetheless, temperatures will start rebounding owing to a sunny start and breaks of sun between any scattered showers, and another shot of dry air is expected to give us an incredible Saturday with highs in the 80s and low humidity.  It looks like an extended warm pattern sets up into early next week, but this will eventually mean increasing humidity, which favors at least some scattered showers or thunder on Father’s Day Sunday, though the day isn’t expected to be a washout at all.  Similar weather of warmth, increased humidity and scattered showers or thunder seems likely through at least the first half if not most of next week in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Another Shot of Amazing Air Taking Hold of New England

FRONTS_D2Morning rain departs for a fresh, northwest wind Tuesday – gusting at times to 40 mph, perhaps resulting in an isolated tree uproot in soft ground from the recent rain, moreover, providing an invigorating spring feeling as temperatures respond to increasing sunshine by rising to 75-80 degrees.  The exception will be Eastern Maine, where the rain arrived last, lasts longest, and therefore, temperatures will stay cool.  The wind will quiet quickly near and after sundown, coupling with clear skies and dry air to send temperatures tumbling to either side of 50 degrees Tuesday night, with 40s in many sheltered valleys but fog limited owing to the dry nature of the air.  That same dry nature will ensure Wednesday brings ample sun and quick warming from that sun: back to 75-80 degree temperatures by afternoon.  Clouds will slowly increase late Wednesday through Wednesday night ahead of the next storm system to impact New England – starting as another storm to our west, but this time spawning new, coastal storm development that will serve to enhance incoming rain Thursday and probably keep most of the day cool with an onshore wind.  Rain is expected to start by Thursday midday, continuing into the night with a soaker of one to two inches of rain probable by Friday morning.  Though the surface storm focusing most of the rain will be departing by Friday morning, the upper level atmospheric energy driving the storm will lag behind a bit, still needing to cross New England Friday, sparking puffy clouds to grow into the sky and dropping some showers across particularly the hilly terrain of Central, Northern and Western New England.  Saturday looks splendid for New England, but the Northeast U.S. will be parked under the jet stream winds aloft – the fast river of air, high in the sky, that steers disturbances.  It won’t be long before the next disturbance caught in the jet stream winds comes close enough to New England to impact our weather and that happens in the form of scattered thunderstorms on Father’s Day afternoon, then again Monday and probably Tuesday afternoons before another break in the pattern comes along.  That said, at this point it’s hard to envision all or any of those days being washouts, so we’ll continue to fine tune and add more detail as we get closer in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Even With Raindrops Expected, Mild Days Continue

LKN_3PART_3DAYS_BOSTON (4)Clouds continue increasing in the New England sky from southwest to northeast Monday in advance of the next weather system.  Although the storm center driving a change in the weather from our wonderful weekend sunshine is well to our west, over the Great Lakes, warmth and increasing moisture is being projected well in advance of the system and will collide with our antecedent dry air to set up a clash that not only brings increasing clouds, but eventually rain.  We expect rain to begin as light and scattered showers Monday late afternoon in Connecticut, and somewhere between 6 and 8 PM in the Worcester to Boston corridor…and not until late evening and even after midnight for someplace like Central and Eastern Maine.  With showers coming after daytime high temperatures Monday afternoon in the 70s and 80s – warmest in the North Country – overnight lows will hang in the 60s and preclude fog development for most of us, though Cape Cod may see some fog by dawn.  The Cape will also find increasing southeast winds gusting to as high as 40 mph Tuesday morning, with that wind core shifting to the coast of Maine by midday with gusts to 50 mph possible briefly from Penobscot Bay, Downeast.  Widespread morning rain will mean a slowed AM commute for New Englanders, but the back edge of the rain marches through around midday to early afternoon Tuesday, meaning afternoon sun emerges for all but Central and Eastern Maine, boosting temperatures into the middle and upper 70s during the second half of the day and setting up a quiet Tuesday night and splendid Wednesday.  The next rain-maker arrives Thursday and likely includes a storm center developing near the coast, meaning rain may be a bit cool for some of us during the day Thursday, then the upper level energy driving this storm moves overhead Friday, prompting a few more scattered showers with a breeze until warmth rebounds this weekend.  At this point, most of the weekend looks dry, though a low chance of an afternoon thunderstorm builds by Father’s Day Sunday afternoon, eventually leading to a higher chance of scattered thunder early next week in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Incredible Weekend Weather Comes Courtesy of Large High Pressure

FRONTS_D2The much-advertised beautiful weekend weather has arrived!  Sunshine and mild temperatures will stay in New England through Monday as a large dome of high pressure crests overhead.  High pressure is the term often given to areas of fair weather, because the center of the fair weather cell boasts the highest barometric air pressure in the vicinity.  A high barometer reading comes from increased pressure put on the ground from the molecules in the atmosphere overhead – which are sinking at the center of a high pressure dome.  Sinking air not only increases the pressure on the ground, but also is the opposite of how clouds and precipitation are made – those both require rising air that cools upon ascent, causing condensation that forms the clouds.  So…sinking air means no healthy cloud growth and dry weather – hence, our forecast for the weekend.  The next chance of rain won’t come until this high pressure cell moves far enough away, which will likely be either Monday night or Tuesday.  Until then, a light prevailing wind will allow for sea breezes to develop each afternoon Friday through Sunday, meaning high temperatures may briefly rise into the 70s at the coast each day, then likely cool during the afternoon as the sea breeze intensifies, while inland locales will rise to and even beyond 80 degrees.  It appears a southerly wind may increase enough on Monday to offset the sea breeze, meaning 80 degree temperatures may end up all the way to the coast.  Tuesday’s increased chance of showers and thunder comes with a weakening storm center likely to break into pieces and perhaps give us a dry Wednesday before another piece of energy arrives Thursday into Friday.  From this early view, it looks like that disturbance may move quickly enough to be out by next weekend for good weather on Father’s Day weekend.

High Pressure Locks in an Incredible Weekend for New England

LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA (3)A sluggish cold front is slowly settling south across the six-state region today and while the front represents the leading edge to drier, comfortable air and delightful weather, the shifting wind from southwest to northwest marking the leading edge of the front is teaming with cold air high in the sky to produce several puffy clouds.  Some of the building clouds Thursday midday and afternoon will yield a few new showers, downpours and thunderstorms, though most of that will be confined to communities near and south of the MA Turnpike, where the most humidity lingers.  By late evening, even Southeast MA and Cape Cod will be done with any showers, though the flow of new, drier air will stall just a bit and this could allow for some patchy fog in far Southern New England the first part of the night…then an increasing wind will usher in the new air and sweep away most areas of fog.  Friday through Sunday look spectacular: dry air, plentiful sunshine, a light wind and mild temperatures.  This time of the year, when the land heats up the ocean is still cool and a sea breeze develops – this weekend will be no exception.  The expected sea breeze is why we’re forecasting highs in the 70s each day at the beaches before dropping during the afternoon, but 80s inland.  The next chance of showers and thunderstorms doesn’t return to New England until Tuesday, with a series of disturbances elevating the chance of showers through midweek, but already looking – at least from this early vantage point – like the weather should improve in time for next weekend.  Here’s hoping!

Chance of Showers to Grow Wednesday and Thursday

LKN_NBCU_POP_D1_NEWENG (2) LKN_NBCU_POP_D1_NEWENG (2)Another epic day has unfolded for New England with sunshine, a busy westerly wind that is holding off any sea breeze from forming and dry air.  With high temperatures around 70, this is about as pleasant of a day as we find in New England.  Well to our west, a series of disturbances are traversing the leading edge to deeper warmth and humidity, and this new air colliding with our existing dry air will eventually spell increasing clouds and showers.  In fact, the first showers will develop in the Green Mountains of Vermont shortly after supper time Tuesday evening, then expand east and southeast during the overnight, bringing scattered showers to most of the six-state region from midnight onward, excepting perhaps Southern CT, RI and Cape Cod.  Wednesday dawns with light rain and fog in Northern New England and clouds, patchy fog with a few showers farther south as a surface warm front, marked by a shifting wind and increase in both temperature and humidity, draws near.  By late Wednesday afternoon, there is question as to the exact placement of the warm front, but our First Alert Weather Team believes it should be somewhere near or north of the MA Turnpike, meaning temperatures will climb through the 70s and near 80 near and south of the Pike, but have trouble breaking much beyond the 60s to near 70 from Northern MA points north, at least until Wednesday evening.  Thursday looks humid with heaviest rain and thunder in the morning, then drier air starts returning to New England, limiting but not totally eliminating the chance of a returning scattered storm Thursday afternoon, then further reducing the chance of showers Friday until, at last, new air will be completely in place for the weekend, delivering incredibly pleasant air much like we started the workweek with…though likely turning even warmer Sunday, at least away from the coast.

Fantastic Air Taking Hold of New England...Scattered Thunder for the North Country

BLOG1Unadulterated blue sky at last returned to all of New England but the Cape and Eastern Maine Monday morning, and while it marks a couple of days of fantastic weather sporting sunshine and mild days for most, there will be some subtle but important exceptions.  The first exception comes Monday afternoon, as a cold and energetic upper level disturbance responsible for a tornado in Ottawa over the weekend and a pocket of snow in Quebec Monday morning drops south and sparks scattered thunderstorms in the North Country of New England.  Thanks to the cold air aloft, these scattered storms will have the potential for not only cloud-to-ground lightning, but also hailstones and perhaps a few pockets of strong wind gusts from Northern VT to The Great Woods of NH to the Mountains of ME.  Elsewhere, a steady breeze from the west will stave off a sea breeze, meaning beaches and interior, alike, will see high temperatures either side of 70 degrees Monday afternoon.  Monday night, not only will scattered storms dissipate in the north, but skies will clear and the wind won’t quit, but it will ease, allowing temperatures to drop in our dry air, bottoming out in the 40s for most of us, with some 30s in sheltered valleys…likely only to produce frost in the far northern reaches of New England, but sure to make a chilly night for one and all.  A quick rebound Tuesday will come with continued sunshine, though by Tuesday evening clouds will increase and some sprinkles late Tuesday evening should become scattered overnight showers, marking the leading edge to warmer, more humid air trying to nose back into New England.  We’re unsure how far north the warmth will spread Wednesday but believe at least Southern New England should be able to break into the 70s or near 80…very unlikely in Northern New England. Thursday would likely continue the warmth but also continue an elevated chance of showers and thunder before another shot of delightful air, akin to the start of this week, arrives in time for next weekend in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Mild Air Persists This Weekend, Showers/Storms Gradually Expand

LKN_NBCU_POP_D0_NEWENG (2) LKN_NBCU_POP_D0_NEWENG (2) LKN_NBCU_POP_D0_NEWENG (2)Mild air has, at last, returned to New England and while showers and storms enter the forecast for some and not others, the relatively mild temperatures will persist.  Someplace like Boston is coming off a stretch where 82 of 83 consecutive hours were spent with cloudy or mostly cloudy skies, so the return of sun is much anticipated and appreciated.  Nonetheless, the combination of lingering moisture in the air plus a energetic disturbance aloft will result in building puffy, cumulus clouds Friday afternoon, with some of the puffy clouds growing large enough for a shower anywhere between the MA Turnpike corridor, New London, CT, and the Cape Cod Canal between 2 PM and 7 PM, melting away from sundown onward.  Patchy fog is possible in Southern New England Friday night, particularly near the South Coast, and some fog with low-altitude clouds may need to burn off Saturday morning before another splendid day unfolds.  By late Saturday, enough warmth will build ahead of an incoming disturbance aloft for a few showers and thunderstorms to fire up in the mountains of Northern and Western New England, and we’ll watch the Berkshires, in particular, for possible slow-moving storms capable of localized flooding if they cross the New York State line Saturday evening.  Sunday brings an elevated chance of showers and thunder for most of us, with the potential for localized flash flooding under slow-moving storms expanding into the mountainous terrain of Vermont and Western New Hampshire, and a propensity for afternoon showers and thunder in Central and Eastern New England…though the Cape is likely to stay dry with variable clouds both weekend days.  Even as cooler air arrives early next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, temperatures will still reach the 60s to around 70 for daytime highs, before warmth likely rebuilds across New England by the middle and end of the week, making the next 10 days warmer than normal for the six-state region.