New England is heading into a fantastic late winter weekend with both Saturday and Sunday looking dry, bright and cool enough for great skiing, snowboarding and snowmobiling, but not so cold that it’s unenjoyable. Some Friday showers are leading us into the great weekend air – rain showers for most of Central and Southern New England but pockets of brief freezing rain have made lesser treated roads slick in some of Central and Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut, and bursts of accumulating snow in the North Country, where between one and four inches of elevation-dependent snow will fall by the time flakes taper overnight Friday night. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will slowly cool – around 40 Saturday and in the 30s Sunday – setting us up for a possible light round of precipitation overnight Sunday night into Monday morning to fall as a wintry mix…but just how much, if any, depends on how quickly a storm offshore develops, so we’ll keep an eye on it as the weekend progresses. Our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast shows another storm chance at midweek and yet again next weekend, as an active jet stream flows nearby, meaning not only we likely see seasonable temperatures next week, but stay close to the jet stream’s disturbances capable of sparking storms, as well.
Daily Weather Discussion
Snow expands across New England from southwest to northeast, reaching Maine last around late day and evening, but already falling heavily in most of the remainder of New England by that point after an expansion from Western to Central New England around midday and Central to Eastern New England during the early to middle afternoon. The evening commute - or what exists of it - will be treacherous owing to heavily falling snow at over one inch per hour and sleet mixing in near the South Coast, capping snow amounts there at one to three inches. The remainder of Southern New England sees a three to six inch snowfall with sleet mixing in from late evening onward, and overnight rain taking over close to the Eastern Massachusetts and Southern New England coast. The storm wraps up by predawn Wednesday for most of Southern New England, while Northern New England sees a slower taper, with Maine holding onto a winter mix until about midday. Quieter weather settles in through Valentine’s Day with highs in the 40s ahead of the next disturbance - looking weaker as we get closer to it - of some rain showers later Friday and Friday night. From this weekend onward, multiple disturbances move near New England through next week, but it’s unclear which if any of these can become organized enough for significant impact, but we’ll be keeping a close eye, and our exclusive guidance percent chance of precipitation on the First Alert 10-day suggests next Wednesday may be a day to watch especially closely.
Our First Alert continues on NBC10 Boston and NECN ahead of an impactful snow forecast to arrive Tuesday and depart for many by early Wednesday, lingering longer in the mountains. This quick-hitting system includes a piece of the same atmospheric energy that socked California with heavy mountain snow and will pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture on its trip cross-country, arriving to New England Tuesday late morning to evening, southwest to northeast, respectively. Until then, dry and chilly air holds snow far from New England Monday through early Tuesday morning, but clouds will continue periodically blotting out the sun, then finally take over entirely by Tuesday morning. Expanding snow Tuesday midday will become heavy in the urban areas of Southern New England late day for the evening commute, marking the first event of this slow snow season that starts, in earnest, while folks are at work and school. As a result, expect after school activities to be canceled, some schools to dismiss early, others may opt to cancel, and the ride home from work will be full winter storm conditions. Sleet mixes in and takes over Tuesday night, leaving rain showers by predawn Wednesday that will depart early in the day for many, while snow continues to fall in Northern New England, leaving a few inches south but over a foot in the mountains. Valentine’s Day looks quiet before a likely rain storm with localized flooding Friday evening into Saturday and a wintry mix in Northern New England, before drying out for the end of the weekend with cool air lingering into early next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
Friday morning rain moves quickly enough for sun to emerge during the afternoon, but the system driving the rain from west to east represents an approaching cold front that will allow only for a few hours of mild air when the sun emerges Friday afternoon and temperatures shoot into the 50s before the wind increases from the west and starts the process of delivering colder air. In fact, temperatures will fall quickly enough Friday evening most of us will notice the change in air before dinner to after dinner, with low temperatures cruising down to the single digits north and around 20 south, with a steady wind of 15 to 25 miles per hour and gusts as high as 50 mph sinking wind chill values to below zero for many communities. The strongest wind gusts of 50 mph and perhaps as high as a localized 55 or 60 mph gust will occur either side of dawn Saturday, resulting in some isolated power outages as a few trees may uproot in a soft ground leading into this weekend from recent snowmelt and rainfall. Wind will be slow to subside Saturday, keeping blustery conditions regionwide and probably causing some ski lift holds during the morning, but winds will relent a bit Saturday afternoon and even more so Saturday evening and night under mostly clear skies. While the cold air will hold on Sunday with highs in the 30s, the far weaker wind will mean wind chill isn’t a big factor, so the day will feel milder compared to Saturday. Our next storm chance comes calling Tuesday into Wednesday and will likely start as snow before changing to a wintry mix and then eventually to rain by Wednesday. Another storm is possible Friday at the end of next week, but as of right now, it looks to depart by next weekend with seasonable temperatures in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
Slick spots quickly melting away for most Thursday morning remained most stubborn in valleys of Northern New England, where a few Northern New Hampshire and northwest Maine valleys will see periodic freezing rain showers all the way through Friday morning. For the vast majority of New England, milder air won’t shake the cool and clammy feeling but will at least bump temperatures above the melting point to nearly 40 degrees, ensuring returning Thursday overnight and Friday morning showers will be plain rain with no renewed icing. An increasing southwest wind Friday will probably briefly bump temperatures into the 50s in Southern New England with 40s farther north before a cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon, simultaneously clearing the sky while opening the door to a flow of new, chilly, Canadian air. The feel of winter returns from Friday night through the weekend, with daytime highs knocked back into the 30s. While cold air would set the stage for snow if a developing storm from the nation’s midsection were to come close enough, it looks increasingly likely the storm path will remain south of New England, like so many other snow producers this season. Not coincidentally given this year’s winter weather pattern, the next chance of a storm just 30 hours later, from later Tuesday into Wednesday, may actually move far enough north to deliver a wintry mix changing to rain showers. Temperatures are likely to hang near normal toward the end of our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
A weak storm system will cross New England Wednesday night, delivering mixed precipitation to the area. The incoming storm is feeding off a temperature contrast with air in the 60s to the south of its track, contrasted with air in the single digits to its north – New England will fall squarely between these two airmasses, and therefore, right under the storm track. Being under the storm track means snow will be confined to the north of the path while rain will be confined south, and most of us find something in between. After sun fades behind thickening clouds Wednesday afternoon, evening rain and freezing rain showers will expand from west to east between 5 PM and 8:30 PM, respectively, with freezing rain confined to inland areas, owing to a gentle southeast wind blowing off the relatively mild ocean water. Although there won’t be much falling from the sky after 2 or 3 AM Thursday, the morning commute still will feature slick spots off the highly-treated interstates owing to pockets of subfreezing air that will remain stubborn until the air begins warming after daybreak. In Northern New England, where three to six inches of Maine mountain snow and a couple of inches of New Hampshire and northern Vermont mountain snow will fall Wednesday night, scattered freezing rain showers will persist on Thursday. A round of rain Thursday night will usher in a blast of milder air Friday, with more scattered showers, before chilly and dry air settles in for the weekend. The early to middle part of next week brings a few disturbances near New England, with one chance of snow Monday – though the storm may miss to our south – and another chance of a wintry mix transitioning to rain Tuesday into Wednesday, with seasonable temperatures at the end of our exclusive First Alert 10-day.
Another amazing day of spring-like warmth unfolding across New England Tuesday not only boost temperatures to 60 degrees again for many in Southern New England, but also gives revellers an amazing day to celebrate the World Champion New England Patriots in Downtown Boston. The warmest of any Patriots celebratory parade – and we have many to compare to now – the route will see clouds parting for increasing sun and temperatures close to 60 for most of the route…comparable if not perhaps even a bit warmer than the Red Sox victory parade in the fall, except that it’s February now! A dose of reality is already entering Northern New England, however, in the form of a cold front – the leading edge to colder air – and a wind shift to blow from the northwest this evening will start the flow of new, colder air, dropping Tuesday night low temperatures to the teens north and 20s south, and holding highs in the 30s Wednesday. This cold air comes just ahead of our next weak storm center, slated for Wednesday night into Thursday, when our NBC10 Boston and NECN First Alert Weather Team has declared a First Alert for impactful weather. A period of freezing rain and sleet is expected to develop Wednesday night around or after 10 PM and continue into Thursday. Cold temperatures will allow precipitation to begin as a period of overnight freezing rain and sleet Wednesday night, making roads slick and likely continuing into early Thursday morning until warmer air slowly transitions most areas to plain rain, with showers continuing Thursday. In Northern New England, a period of snow is probable Wednesday night before a change to wintry mix, with some northern valleys remaining slick well into the day Thursday. Milder rain showers are expected Friday, before cold and dry weekend air precedes a storm that has the potential to deliver accumulating snow to most of Southern New England Monday, though, as always, it depends heavily upon the track of the storm. Seasonable temperatures seem likely to round out next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
A couple of days of mild weather are moving through New England as a southwest wind transports air northeast from the Ohio Valley, where high temperatures in recent days have reached 55 to 60 degrees, and that same outcome is expected here at home Monday and Tuesday. Not only will this promote lots of melting, but also bodes wonderfully for the big Patriots victory parade Tuesday in Downtown Boston, with temperatures in the 50s and, save for an early morning scattered shower, dry conditions expected. The early morning shower chance Tuesday is greater the farther north one is, with an energetic disturbance aloft moving through Northern New England with at least a round of showers that probably will have some embedded freezing rain pockets in the valleys for Tuesday morning slick spots before temperatures rise again. A cold front slicing south across New England later Tuesday through Tuesday night will mark the leading edge of colder air that will be felt Wednesday with highs only in the 30s, setting us up for at least a period of sleet and freezing rain overnight Wednesday night into early Thursday morning for some morning commute slick roads before warmer air takes over and plain rain showers end the event by Thursday midday. A follow-up disturbance delivers mostly rain showers Friday, though the North Country probably will see another dose of wintry mix before we all dry out for the weekend as another shot of cool air takes hold, likely setting us up for either snow or a rain/snow mix Sunday night through Monday, before temperatures hold near normal for this time of year through the end of the exclusive First Alert 10-day.
Cold is relenting Friday for a noticeably more comfortable weekend in New England. While the cold may no longer be dangerous with frostbite threat, it’s still certainly stinging with daytime highs Friday in the 20s south and 10s north and wind chill values in the single digits at the warmest time of the afternoon. Nonetheless, a change in the air is underway and will accelerate as wind increases from the southwest Saturday, pushing temperatures into the 30s after a single digit start above and below zero. Gradual melting will help to naturally clean up the roads where any patchy ice lingers, though black ice due to refreezing is possible Saturday night. Anytime new, milder air collides with pre-existing chill, we usually either see storm development or at least plenty of clouds – this time, the latter will be the case with clouds likely to outweigh sun on both weekend days. One energetic disturbance aloft will deliver Saturday snow showers to the mountains of Northern New England with one to three inches of new mountain snow, but these snow showers will have trouble surviving as far south as Central and Southern New England, with the next chance of some mixed showers on a larger scale coming perhaps Sunday overnight with a surge of warmer and more moist air. By Monday, the new, mild air is in place with high temperatures around 50 for many as a storm center organizes over the Great Lakes and increases the southerly wind here at home, then delivers some showers and continued mild temperatures in the 50s on Tuesday before a sharp cold front likely knocks winter back into New England for midweek. A follow-up storm center moves through us at the end of next week, but with colder air battling back by that point, it’s possible we see mixed precipitation before likely shipping out for the start of next weekend in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
Record cold started our Thursday in New England, setting record low temperatures for the date in some communities en route to a day with highs only in the teens for most and single digits north, and wind chill values that, at their warmest, will land either side of zero after starting well below zero in the morning. One benefit of arctic air is it’s dry air, so we’re not expecting any well-developed storms to impact New England in the coming days, with one weak to moderate snow event missing New England to the south on Friday as it rides around the periphery of our dry arctic air, while a follow-up disturbance on Saturday brings snow showers to the mountains and hills of Northern New England but probably not for the rest of us. Otherwise, cold will gradually but steadily ease through the weekend, with temperatures and wind chill values rising by about 10 degrees per day Friday and again Saturday, then as a stronger storm system organizes over the nation’s midsection into the Great Lakes, a southerly wind will move into New England late Sunday. The new wind late Sunday will be transporting warmth to New England, and the front edge may touch off some mixed showers Sunday night before high temperatures reach well into the 40s Monday, 50s Tuesday and may very well stay elevated, especially in Southern New England, into Thursday as well with an accompanying chance of showers. Late next week, cold air will battle back, which not only raises the chance Thursday’s showers may end up as snow showers in Northern New England, but also means another shot of winter chill is likely by next Friday and Saturday in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.