On this first weekday of the month, our NBC10 Boston & NECN First Alert Weather Team delivers our monthly forecast for July – and it looks very promising. Coming off a June that was wetter than normal and very close to average temperature (just slightly warmer than normal), the big question is whether we can dry out for July, and the answer from our meteorology team is yes.
The cool pool of air that lingered over the Central United States in June was well predicted by our First Alert Team, and disturbances riding around the periphery of that cool air sparked thunderstorms and rain storms where warm and cool air collided, and that included New England, where someplace like Boston saw nearly an inch and a half more rain than normal for June, totaling just over five inches for the month. Not all of New England saw the same result, though – in fact, Worcester and Hartford were one to two inches below normal for the month, while much of Northern New England was significantly wetter than usual. July features the Central U.S. cool pool migrating slowly west as a large dome of heat builds over the Southeastern United States, driving hotter than normal conditions through Atlanta and probably all the way into Washington D.C. Thunderstorm outbreaks are expected to develop on the northern edge of the building heat – the reasoning for our team’s prediction of near normal precipitation from the Appalachian Mountains into the Mid-Atlantic States. Here at home, however, it looks like we’ll remain just north of that very active thunderstorm zone, at least overall this month. What this means for New England is likely near-normal temperatures (though, if we are to lean in one direction or another, we’d likely be leaning warmer-than-normal given how far away the cool pool is and how close the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic heat is), and below normal precipitation, overall.
With July presenting New England’s warmest average temperatures of the year, this bodes well for many days with highs in the 80s and the tendency for drier-than-normal weather for the month means, on the balance, vacation weeks and outdoor plans will meet with contentment from the weather. Of course, there is one very important point we’re making as a team of meteorologists: even a drier-than-normal July certainly doesn’t mean we avoid summertime thunderstorms, and the reality is, if the storms hit your outdoor plans, it can be a drier-than-normal month, but that didn’t help your event! We know how important those details are, which is why we continue to pour so much energy into making sure our daily, exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast is as accurate as it can be, so you can plan your weddings, parties, vacation days and workouts with confidence.