Anticipated Changes to Cooler Air Arriving

BLOG1Big weather changes are arriving to New England in the coming days as a well-advertised shift to a cool, autmun weather pattern takes hold.  The first of the changes today is actually a final gasping push of warmth, clashing with the cool air that was in place already in New England, bringing many clouds and some showers and sprinkles from time to time Tuesday morning through early afternoon.  By late Tuesday afternoon, breaks of sun will emerge and nudge late day temperatures to their highest values of the day, reaching the 70s for Southern New England, while Northern New England stays mostly cloudy and cooler.  New showers will develop in Northern New England Tuesday evening and night with patchy fog developing region-wide as more humid air arrives to Central and Southern areas, making for a humid and warm start Wednesday.  Though temperatures will likely rise into the 70s for most of us Wednesday, a strong cold front will already be marching south through Northern New England early Wednesday and likely drive temperatures down by the end of Wednesday as scattered showers crop up, marking the change in air.  From Wednesday evening onward, it’s all fall: highs in the 50s Thursday, Friday and Saturday…and likely nothing much above 70 on even the warmest days in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.  Rain chances start to rise, as well, with one shot of rain Thursday evening into early Friday morning, then again late Sunday into early Monday.

First Frost for Boston Burbs, First Snow for New England Both By Week's End

BLOG1It’s a quintessential fall day in New England to start our workweek, with fair sky, dry air and temperatures a touch cooler than normal at 60 to 65 degrees.  In the coming days, we’ll get one more taste of mild air before a major pattern change.  In the short term, the influx of warmth arrives aloft overnight Monday night, resulting in increasing clouds after midnight as the preceding cool air and new warmth clash overhead.  Tuesday morning, the clash aloft will be enough for some sprinkles and overcast skies…likely to make for stubborn clouds until skies start breaking a bit during the afternoon, when limited sun will assist a busy southwest breeze in boosting temperatures to or just over 70 degrees.  A sharp cold front charging south from Canada will make passage through New England on Wednesday and the exact timing is critical: ahead of the front Wednesday morning, communities will warm into the 70s, while behind it, 50s will be more commonplace.  By Wednesday evening, the cold front will be crossing New England’s South Coast, and from that point forward, the true fall we’re accustomed to as New Englanders will be here.  From Thursday through the end of the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast, we see highs almost exclusively in the 50s and 60s with increasing chances for rain, particularly Thursday into Friday – which may bring accumulating snow to Northern Maine – then a frost possible for the Boston suburbs Friday night…and another chance of rain later Sunday into Monday.

As Foliage Colors Pick Up, Amazing Weekend Weather

LKN_FALL_FOLIAGEHow long can this string of incredible fall weather last in New England?  Several more days appears to be the answer – our weekend is looking incredible and our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast has been advertising a pattern change by the end of next week to much cooler air: that change is still predicted.  Until then, however, we enjoy a sunny weekend ahead punctuated only by a passing cold front late Saturday and Saturday night.  Sunshine and a light wind for our Friday means a quiet and pleasant weather day with sea breezes kicking up for our coastal communities during the afternoon and highs comfortably 70 to 75 degrees, regionwide.  A storm system cutting from the Great Lakes to Southern Canada on Saturday will prompt an increase in wind from the south and southwest, meaning warm air will be moving in with only some wispy, high-altitude clouds mixing in with our sunshine, allowing temperatures to reach 80 degrees in Southern New England Saturday afternoon, and well into the 70s even in the North Country where foliage now has reached moderate color, approaching a likely peak in the next two weeks, while areas farther south are just starting to see color showing up.  The passage of a cold front Saturday will spark a few late day showers in the North Country, then some scattered showers in Central and Southern New England Saturday evening and night, respectively, leaving cooler air but continued sunshine for Sunday with highs near 70 and 60s north.  Next week starts cool – 60s on Monday – but features one more big warmup before the weather pattern change to cooler times…and that one more warmup should see us in the 80s by next Wednesday, ahead of a cold front that marks the start of high temperatures closer to 60 degrees for next weekend.

Becoming a Familiar Pattern: Mild to Warm and Back to Mild

BLOG1Although temperatures have been swinging from day-to-day here in New England, normal highs for the date are around 70 degrees – so even our cooler days are near or slightly milder than we normally should be!  Our exclusive, First Alert 10-day forecast shows this pattern continuing…at least for the next 9 of 10 days, with more substantial cooling possible by the end of next week.  For now, ample sunshine and a light wind is making for a delightful fall day regionwide with light sea breezes along our beaches and widespread highs of 70 to 75.  The next weather system capable of producing showers is a cold front, still well off to our west in the Central Great Lakes and unlikely to arrive until Thursday afternoon and evening, from northwest to southeast across New England, meaning a southwest wind will have the opportunity to carry in just a bit more warmth to New England on Thursday, bumping temperatures to around 80 degrees.  The oscillating temperature pattern of warm to not-quite-as-warm continues for several days, as the passing cold front Thursday evening drags scattered showers across New England and opens the door to Friday air that will be very similar to our Wednesday: sunny and highs 70 to 75 with a light wind.  Yet again, warmth will build Saturday with highs in the 80s ahead of another cold front with scattered showers Saturday late day and night, then yet another shot of pleasant, dry fall air for Sunday.  The cycle repeats again early next week, with building warmth by midweek before a more significant change shows up at the end of the 10-day forecast: a more powerful cold front at the end of next week may leave high temperatures next Friday struggling to get out of the lower to middle 60s.

Incredible Summer Heat on the First Day of Autumn

FRONTS_D1Incredible warmth continues for one more day in New England, regardless of the autumnal equinox at 3:50 this morning, heralding in fall.  Instead, a gusty southwest wind will exceed 30 mph at times, continuing the transport of downright hot and humid air across New England, where morning temperatures in the middle 70s as far north as the Crown of Maine will translate to widespread 80s to near 90 Monday afternoon.  With dew point temperatures – the measure of the amount of moisture in the air – reaching the 60s to near 70 in Central and Southern New England by day’s end, heat index values or “feels like temperatures” will exceed 90 degrees.  Hydration and avoiding overexertion will be important for one and all, but particularly for kids on the practice and game fields Monday afternoon.  Scattered showers in the North Country Monday, well ahead of an approaching cold front, will slowly expand south and east, mostly gaining traction between 6 and 9 PM, then intensifying over Central and Eastern New England Monday night with some embedded downpours and thunder.  By Tuesday morning, the cold front will be through most of New England, leaving only early morning rain on Cape Cod and in Eastern Maine that will depart quickly, but the upper level atmospheric energy driving the cold front will still need to move through the sky above, prompting blossoming clouds by midday Tuesday after morning sun, then blossoming showers with embedded thunder in pockets Tuesday afternoon.  Tuesday night and Wednesday, fall air will mean dry conditions with a clearing sky and the next disturbance delivering scattered showers won’t arrive until Thursday evening or night and should move through quickly, leaving a fine fall Friday.  The weekend is likely to bring another swing from mild to cooler air from Saturday to Sunday with a cold front marking the transition between that air Saturday night, though the timing is yet to be nailed down and will determine exactly when potential showers, if any, would move through before more great fall weather early next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

An Amazing Weekend of Sun...With Some Important Subtleties

LKN_ADVISORIES_NEWENG_ACTIVE (1) LKN_ADVISORIES_NEWENG_ACTIVE (1) LKN_ADVISORIES_NEWENG_ACTIVE (1) LKN_ADVISORIES_NEWENG_ACTIVE (1) LKN_ADVISORIES_NEWENG_ACTIVE (1) LKN_ADVISORIES_NEWENG_ACTIVE (1)An epic weather weekend with a summer redux has arrived to New England, with tons of sunshine and warming temperatures.  First, the basics on the weather: dry weather will persist until Monday evening and night, with a steady, gradual moderation in temperatures from highs near 80 Friday, to either side of 80 Saturday, to the middle 80s Sunday, with overnight lows mostly in the 50s – no more frosty mornings, even in the North Country for now.  There are a few important subtleties to be aware of in the coming days: the dry weather has put some of New England in abnormally dry conditions, one stage shy of drought.  Though we aren’t immediately concerned about that – and fall tends to be a rainy season of recharging our water supply anyway – we’ll keep an eye on it as we’ll likely turn drier over the next ten days.  Brush fire danger is now moderate for most of New England and should continue increasing through the weekend, so anyone managing a fire this weekend, from brush burning to bonfire to campfire should stay aware and alert with any embers.  Rip currents have developed from powerful swell emanating from Hurricane Humberto, racing toward St. John well to our east but sending six to ten foot waves careening into our beaches, creating strong rip currents Friday and moderate rip currents Saturday – with no seasonal life guards, Friday swimming should be avoided and Saturday swimming should be done cautiously at any beaches exposed to waves.  The next disturbance to bring scattered showers comes through Monday night and may last into Tuesday morning before moving along, giving way to dry weather again until another disturbance Thursday night.  The early call on next weekend at the end of our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast is for another dry, bright weekend…though unlikely to be as warm as this weekend.

Amazing Weekend Ahead - Though Rip Currents and Brush Fire Threat Climbs

SocialOur quiet stretch of weather rolls on, but there’s a surprisingly long list of weather related items to share!  First and foremost, we continue to forecast an incredible stretch of weather starting with room temperature high temperatures of 65 to 70 degrees after a frosty start for some this morning with temperatures dropping into the 20s for four of our six New England states.  Sunshine is expected for several days, through the weekend, as high pressure only slowly drifts south and changes our wind direction enough for a west and southwest wind to carry warmth into New England for highs near 80 Friday and in the 80s Saturday and Sunday.  This will put most New Englanders in a summer, rather than fall, mindset, with the big races at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway seeming more like the mid-summer races from July, the Patriots playing at Gillette in 82 degree weather, and kids sports this weekend calling for a big water bottle, sunscreen and, for Moms, Dads and fans, sunglasses!  All the while, Hurricane Humberto is hundreds of miles to our southeast but is generating 40 foot waves at its center, and these waves travel away from the storm as swell, building seas six to ten feet by Friday morning in our coastal waters, meaning a strong rip current sets up at our beaches Thursday through Saturday, posing a risk to swimmers.  Meanwhile, we’ve seen brush fires breaking out the last few days in Upstate New York, and the continued dry conditions will raise our own brush fire danger through the weekend, encouraging caution for brush burning, campfires and the like.  Meanwhile, New England is not in drought, but many communities are now abnormally dry owing to the lack of recent rain.  Our next chance of showers holds off until a passing disturbance Monday night of next week, with another possible disturbance with showers next Thursday night, but a week of high temperatures likely in the 70s again for another great week, overall, in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Frost Advisories for Some First Frosts Wednesday Night

LKN_ADVISORIES_NEWENG_ACTIVEAfter a puff of clouds and sprinkles with renewed cool air on a northeast wind Wednesday morning, clearing has taken hold again as dry air muscles back into place here in New England.  This means we’re back on track for dry and sunny weather for days to come – with the coolest of the air today as highs will be held at 60 to 65 degrees.  A shifting wind and moderating air in the coming days will allow sunshine to boost our temperatures each day, but before that happens we have a chilly – and for some, frosty – night to get through Wednesday night.  Frost advisories and freeze warnings are up for Central and Northern New England, respectively, with some frost as far south as the deepest valleys of both Western MA and even a deepest, sheltered valley of Northern Worcester County.  Thereafter, we’re frost-free and feeling more like summer by the weekend, when high temperatures reach 80 degrees or warmer, persisting into the start of astronomical autumn on Monday.  Next week looks pretty good, too, with two disturbances we’ll fine tune timing on as we get closer to, but right now the highest chance of scattered showers appears to be Monday night and again Wednesday night in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Some Sprinkles Possible Tuesday Night into Wednesday...Then Sunshine Resumes

BLOG1A dome of high pressure – fair weather – continues to dominate our New England weather story, anchored over Eastern Canada and maintaining a northerly wind direction for a stream of cool and dry air.  Tuesday afternoon and night a northeast component will take over, bringing a puff of even cooler and somewhat more moist air through Maine first Tuesday, then the rest of New England overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, carrying increased clouds and some sprinkles and light rain showers.  While Eastern New England may wake to clouds, a wet ground and some lingering scattered sprinkles Wednesday morning, we do expect the dry air to take over again by Wednesday afternoon with increasing sun…but the coolest air of the week will be in place with high temperatures only 60 to 65 degrees.  Tuesday night should turn cold enough for a freeze in Northern Maine – for the rest of us, it’ll be a chilly night with isolated deep valley frost possible, but most of Central and Southern New England will avoid any widespread frost, and certainly not the hard freeze necessary to extinguish the EEE threat in Southern New England.  Thereafter, a moderation in temperature begins, with each day progressively milder until finally the weekend delivers highs around 80 degrees, right into the Autumnal Equinox – the first day of astronomical autumn – on Monday.  In fact, with dry air so firmly in place and Hurricane Humberto missing to the southeast of New England with little more than building swell on our coastal waters this week, peaking over 10 feet on Friday with rip currents, sunshine will prevail through Monday, as well.  Our next chance of showers comes Monday night into Tuesday, then perhaps again next Thursday in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

In This One Man's Humble Opinion...Perhaps the Best 10-day Forecast Of 2019 Thus Far

LKN_FRONTS_BOSDMA (6)An upper level disturbance crossing the sky of New England delivered some clouds to dim the sunshine in many communities early Monday, but as this disturbance passes with little more than sprinkles and light showers in Connecticut, clouds will thin for strengthening sunshine.  In fact, a dry stretch of weather is expected for the vast majority of the next week as surface high pressure sprawls into New England from Eastern Canada, locking in dry air, overall, for several days.  There will be a few subtle features at times: a puff of cool air Tuesday night into Wednesday not only will deliver some brisk air, but also will result in increased cloud cover Tuesday night and Wednesday with perhaps a sprinkle along the way.  10_DAY_ACTIVE (81)As soon as Thursday, the center of our big dome of high pressure will start shifting east, allowing our wind to blow from the west and southwest, ushering in gradually but steadily warming temperatures each day into the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday highs around 80 degrees, all the while maintaining a dry stretch until the next bona fide chance of showers early next week.  The dry stretch will increase brush fire danger in the coming week and may allow for some fall pollen like ragweed to creep back up again, but these should be the worst of our ailments in the days ahead – at least for landlubbers.  Mariners will see a more active time by week’s end as Hurricane Humberto makes its closest pass to New England Friday or Saturday.  Waves of one to two feet today will build three to five feet by midweek, as high as six feet last week and may peak over ten feet when Humberto makes his closest pass southeast of New England, perhaps most directly impacting Bermuda.