Wind has finally quieted across New England today, so wind chill is less of a factor. This means, while temperatures may actually fall just shy of readings the past couple of days, it will actually feel just a tad milder. Sunshine in Eastern New England fades behind increasing clouds ahead of the next disturbance – a weak system delivering scattered light rain and snow showers from west to east Friday afternoon and evening, not leaving much accumulation except perhaps near an inch in the higher terrain of Berkshire County and perhaps the far Southern Greens. Nonetheless, even a small amount of fresh moisture on Southern and Western New England roads prior to partial clearing and cooling below freezing after dusk means some patchy black ice is possible overnight in Southern and Western New England. The weekend is split: Saturday will be dry and Sunday will be wet. Rain arrives from southwest to northeast Saturday late evening and overnight, starting as a very brief burst of snow in the western mountains and hills, and a longer burst of one to three inches of snow in the North Country, with higher amounts in far northeast New Hampshire and Northern Maine. By Sunday morning, rain will be falling for the majority of New England, falling heaviest through midday and accumulating half an inch to an inch before tapering to scattered showers for most by later afternoon, in time for the Patriots game with a gusty easterly wind for most of the day. Monday will be the sole mild day next workweek, as cold air returns and we watch storm potential for Tuesday night (low potential) and next weekend (moderate potential) in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day Forecast.
The end of our recent breather in the weather is in sight for New England, but there won’t be many complaints at the end of our Thursday. Aside from a narrow swath of light snow ejecting into the Gulf of Maine from Central and Eastern parts of the Pine Tree State, New England is fairly quiet today, save for an active northwest wind. In fact, while Central and Southern New England have been breezy for the last 36-48 hours, some Northern New England communities saw little wind during the heavy snow, so now that wind is increasing, new power outages are resulting in the mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, we’ll salvage not only a bright and dry Thursday, but a quiet Thursday night and dry daylight hours Friday until an approaching warm front triggers some pockets of light rain and snow after dinner Friday evening into the first half of the overnight. Total snow and rain amounts will be quite limited and predominantly in Southern and Western New England, but that bit of moisture on area roads may require some treatment with temperatures near freezing. Clouds will be stubborn Saturday as the air in the sky over New England slowly but steadily warms ahead of an approaching storm over the Great Lakes, poised to deliver enough warmth for Saturday night and Sunday rain, eventually even ending as rain showers in much of Northern New England after a burst of mountain snow at the onset. By the time the Patriots take the field at Gillette Stadium Sunday afternoon, the heaviest rain will be over with just lingering showers here and there, and a break in the action until the next potential storm later Tuesday into early Wednesday, more likely to deliver a broader area of snow as colder air moves in. The rest of the 10-day looks cold, leading to another potential storm by late next weekend.
For a change, a storm-free stretch is descending upon most of New England for a few days. Of course, snow has, incredibly, still been falling in the northern and western mountains as tens of thousands remain without power due to tree damage on power lines from the heavy weight of snow, and another few inches of snow are accumulating today. Elsewhere, clouds will overtake sunshine this afternoon with scattered flurries and a chilly breeze making high temperatures in the 40s feel more like the 30s. A busy wind continues Wednesday night through Thursday with cool but not cold temperatures continuing and snow finally tapering in the mountains, though renewed snow will fall Wednesday night into Thursday in Northern and Eastern Maine. Another dry and cool day Friday precedes a warm front that will moderate the air this weekend – though that warm front making passage overnight Friday night may deliver at least some light snow and rain, likely leaving plenty of clouds on Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday, a storm center strengthening over the Great Lakes will thrust warmth northward, meaning rain is much more likely than snow for most of New England, though we’re concerned about the potential of snow to extended freezing rain in the North Country and will be watching that potential very carefully in the coming days. After a brief break in the action early next week, another storm center will strengthen south of New England late next Tuesday into Wednesday, and how close the storm comes will be the key – by that point, enough cold air will be in place for snow to move into the Boston suburbs if the storm is close enough. Regardless, a cooler pattern settles in to end next week in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
Snow continues to pile up in Northern New England where over a foot of heavy, wet snow has meant perfect conditions for building the base in ski and snowmobile country but also has knocked out power to nearly 100,000 customers from Western MA through Northern and Central New England. Though no arctic blast is expected in the coming days, the mountains will see periodic snow continuing all the way through Wednesday, while the rest of New England very slowly finds a drying trend as an increasing southwest wind takes hold for most. Nonetheless, small rivers like the Assabet and Sudbury in Massachusetts have come into flood stage, inundating flood-prone, low-lying areas near the riverbanks. A few days of dry weather – outside of the continuing mountain snow – will take hold through week’s end, when a new approaching storm seems likely to weaken as it moves into New England Friday night, perhaps bringing some very light rain or snow but more likely to cloud the sky through Saturday, in anticipation of the next bona fide storm Saturday night through Sunday, destined to deliver mostly rain. In this active weather pattern, another storm appears likely by midweek next week, and that one may bring both rain and snow to the region in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
With our active weather pattern continuing, another storm comes as little surprise to New Englanders. Of course, each storm is a bit different in what it offers, and this go round with wet weather will deliver another one to two inches of rain for Southern New England but this time a 12 to 18 inch snowstorm for the mountains of the North! Skiers and snowmobilers will delight in this heavy, pasty snow that will serve as an excellent base, while residents of Southern New England who prefer to “keep it in the mountains” will get your wishes filled, too. After scattered showers during the day, expect steadier and heavier rain to expand from southwest to northeast from 4 PM to 8 PM, respectively, slowing the commute for Connecticut and Western Massachusetts, and delivering steadiest rain around or just after dinner east. While big puddles and rising smaller rivers to minor flood stage are expected for many, an increasing east wind will gust to 50 mph on Cape Cod and the Islands late this evening and overnight, producing some isolated power outages before shifting to blow from the southwest early Tuesday morning as rainfall shuts down. A high tide just after midday and midnight will result in some splashover and perhaps very minor coastal flooding in typically vulnerable spots, while most of the North Country will be in full snowstorm conditions Tuesday morning. Though most dry out Tuesday, the mountains continue to snow. The midweek and late week look drier, but continued cool, with a glancing blow from a storm possible, though not likely, Friday night, then a storm more likely Saturday night into Sunday, likely to contain both rain and snow for New England. Our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast shows the busy weather pattern continues, with another storm possible midweek next week.
Happy Thanksgiving to You and Yours. A strong dome of Canadian high pressure has delivered a blast of arctic air to New England today, with a steady wind coupling with highs only in the teens and 20s to produce wind chill values either side of zero, even at the warmest time of the day. This arctic air is dry, which means sunshine for nearly all of us, though a cold wind over the relatively warm ocean waters has meant periodic ocean-effect clouds and flurries on Outer Cape Cod, and should mean flurries for more of Cape Cod this evening into tonight. Otherwise, temperatures will fall to the single digits and teens overnight and while the wind will be slackening, it’ll still be breezy enough for wind chill values to hang below zero. The wind quiets considerably Friday and that means wind chill really isn’t a factor, so it’ll feel about 20-25 degrees milder than Thanksgiving. Amazingly, the air in New England moderates enough on Saturday under sun and clouds with a southerly wind to make our next storm Saturday night into Sunday warm enough for raindrops in all but Northern New England, where a wintry mix changes to raindrops. After a brief breather later Sunday into Monday, the next storm Monday into Tuesday also may be rain south and a mix north. Thereafter, we’ll gradually dry out through the middle and end of next week, but while today’s arctic air certainly relents, we also see the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast remaining cooler than normal.
While the Boston Metro and most Metropolitan areas of Southern New England see mostly rain from today’s storm, snow has continued to add up in far Northern and Western Massachusetts points north. While a daytime November snow event has decidedly less impact on roads – especially treated ones – than its counterparts in the dead of winter, those roads that aren’t treated as heavily have become slick and snow-covered in the snow zone, and even treated interstates occasionally become overwhelmed in heavier bursts of snow. While Southern New England will ship out the rain as a last-gasp snow shower during the afternoon, Central and Southern New England will see at least lightly accumulating snow lingering into the evening. Clearing tonight leads to some sun Wednesday before building clouds and scattered afternoon and evening snow showers and squalls ahead of an approaching arctic cold front that delivers the much-advertised bitter blast of air for Wednesday night through Thanksgiving night, producing daytime highs only around 20 with wind chill values either side of zero on Thanksgiving Day, leading to a change of plans for many high school football games and likely some Turkey Day foot races. Wind eases Thursday night into Friday but cold air lingers with overnight low temperatures mostly in the single digits. Saturday brings some moderation before the clash of changing air results in developing rain and northern snow Sunday into Monday. Temperatures remain cool through the remainder of the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
A messy start to the week will lead to record cold on Thanksgiving Day. Some Monday morning slick spots over interior Central New England were the result of a rather weak disturbance crossing our region. As the last of mixed showers exit stage right Monday midday, leaving cloudy skies and drier conditions for the afternoon, another disturbance is already approaching from the Ohio Valley, set to arrive overnight tonight and last through Tuesday early afternoon. Like its predecessor, this new storm system won’t be exceptionally strong and will be moving through air marginal for rain or snow, meaning a rain/snow line is likely to set up across Central and Northern Massachusetts as precipitation begins lightly late Monday evening and intensifies for the Tuesday morning commute to midday. Due to a mix with rain, the immediate Boston Metro is unlikely to pick up more than an inch, but those outside of Route 95 to the north and west may see a couple of inches, and outside of Route 495 the potential rises to a few to several inches of snow, with the greatest snowfall expected in Western MA, Southern VT, Central/Southern NH and Southern ME where the entire event should feature snow rather than rain. Significant wind and waves aren’t expected with this storm, so the biggest impact is on local travel. An arctic cold front approaches Wednesday, triggering afternoon and evening scattered snow squalls from north to south, respectively, ushering in the coldest air of the young season for Thanksgiving Day, when highs are only expected to reach 20-25 degrees and wind chill values will hover either side of zero, putting Thanksgiving Day road races and football games in jeopardy, though moderation is expected especially by Saturday in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
Changes in air are almost always accompanied by wind and when the changes are abrupt enough, accompanied by rain or snow. This weekend, New England will see a couple changes in air that will be marked by wind, but not a lot of rainfall, and the wind is sure to make for changing, challenging conditions for rowers and their coxswains (the folks who steer the boats) at the Head of the Charles Regatta. The first change has already been underway with unseasonably cold Friday low temperatures in the 20s and 30s rebounding over 30 degrees to afternoon highs that actually are just about perfectly normal for this time of the year. That change of air comes with an increasing southwest wind that will continue as a breeze overnight Friday night, keeping temperatures in the 40s and 50s for a much milder night, leading into a mild Saturday. One disturbance aloft will trigger a few isolated morning showers Saturday, then the focus for showers splits to Vermont and perhaps scrapes Cape Cod during the midday, while most communities in between see clouds mixed with some sun and highs reaching the middle 60s. Late Saturday afternoon to evening, the cold front prompting Vermont rain showers will drop south, spreading scattered showers into Central and Southern New England and opening the door to colder air to spill across New England Saturday night and Sunday, when daytime highs won’t exceed 50 degrees for most and a stiff northwest wind gusting to 40 mph will hold wind chill values in the upper 30s. Although mountain snow showers are possible Sunday, most of us will find dry air that will hold on through Monday, before the next chance of showers arrives, particularly the farther north one is. We’re hopeful showers that may be around Tuesday would be gone by the start of the first World Series game at Fenway Park, and Wednesday’s game looks dry right now with both game temperatures likely to be in the 40s in our exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.
After one shot of cool fall air already delivered morning lows in the 30s for most of New England this morning, another, reinforcing cool airmass is moving in today. The leading edge of the new cool air is called a cold front and will carry a band of clouds and showers from north to south today from morning to evening, respectively, with most of Central and Southern New England seeing scattered late day to early evening showers. Behind those showers, a gusty southwest wind shifts to blow from the northwest with gusts to 45 mph at times – not as strong as a couple of nights ago, though a couple isolated reports of tree damage are a possibility. The new, northwest wind will deliver enough chilly air to hold high temperatures in the 40s Thursday with wind chill values starting in the 20s in the morning and never recovering beyond the 30s by afternoon. Of course, this sets us up for a frost and freeze deep into Southern New England Thursday night, away from the coastline, so we’ll want to bring in any plants we’re hoping to save. Temperatures rebound Friday and even more Saturday, though the incoming warmth will produce some clouds with a chance of showers Friday night into Saturday morning, then perhaps a lingering scattered shower during the day Saturday with more numerous showers in Vermont. A renewed shot of cool and dry air arrives Sunday with mountain snow showers and cool air holds all the way through next week in the exclusive Early Warning Weather 10-day forecast.