As Humidity Makes a Comeback, Chance of Showers and Thunder Rises

BLOG1Humidity is making a comeback to New England today – fog and low altitude clouds heralded its arrival for some of Southern New England early in the day and will return in pockets overnight, while occasional showers and downpours skirt over Cape Cod and far Southeastern MA from time to time, even as a brief period of rain for a time Tuesday afternoon as a coastal storm brushes by to the southeast.  Elsewhere, clouds will gradually increase as humidity gradually increases and scattered showers and thunder from Upstate New York will wander into Western New England by evening before dying.  Pockets of fog and clouds will develop in the humid air overnight Tuesday night, making for a muggy and, in spots, murky start Wednesday.  A few upper level disturbances rippling through the winds aloft will trigger scattered showers and thunder Wednesday, with the greatest focus likely later in the day and the strongest showers and storms north of I-84 and the MA Turnpike.  Downpours are likely given the humid air and locally damaging wind is a possibility in a few stronger storms, which is why you’ll notice a First Alert stamp on our exclusive 10-day forecast.  Thursday is another day with a First Alert, owing to the probability of more scattered showers and thunderstorms that may, at least for some locales, pack a punch before drier and more comfortable air arrives for the weekend.  Most of the weekend looks bright, with the exception possibly being scattered showers or thunder in the far North Country Saturday afternoon.  Warmth and humidity looks to rebuild again by the middle of next week.


Incredible Start to the Week Will Yield to Recurring Pattern of Midweek Humidity & Storms

LKN_NBCU_POP_D1_NEWENG LKN_NBCU_POP_D1_NEWENGA slug of very dry air not only ensures showers and thunderstorms won’t mar our Monday, but also is delivering an incredibly comfortable start to the workweek, regionwide.  This kind of dry air really can cool off under clear skies at night, and some valleys of Northern New England woke to temperatures in the 30s early Monday!  On the flip side, dry air also warms fast and we’re seeing that regionwide as highs land either side of 80 with coastal communities around or just shy of 80 with sea breezes and inland communities in the lower to middle 80s. Another cool night is expected Monday night, though not as cool as its predecessor, though humidity will already start increasing on Cape Cod and at the South Coast. With a southerly wind, that more humid air carries north Tuesday, with a sticky feeling returning for most of Southern New England by afternoon and the chance for a morning to midday Southeast MA shower on the leading edge of the increased moisture, then the chance of a few afternoon inland showers as a weak disturbance approaches later in the day.  Warmth and humidity will peak Wednesday and Thursday, meaning the chance of showers and thunderstorms also peaks on these two days, ahead of another remarkable weekend of weather with comfortable air, sunshine and highs around 80.  It looks like our pattern of not only favorable weekends but also midweek warmth, humidity and storms will continue into next week, as the end of our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast shows the midweek turning unsettled again next week.


Great Weekend Ahead - Isolated Thunder Possible

LKN_NBCU_POP_D1_NEWENG (4) LKN_NBCU_POP_D1_NEWENG (4)An incredible stretch of weather is yet again setting up for New England.  A large dome of high pressure has delivered enough dry air for abundant sunshine, a light wind promoting coastal sea breezes and cool nights with comfortable days – at least, for now.  After a great start Saturday, there’s a 20-40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm Saturday late day and evening, particularly inland, as more humid air slowly moves back into New England.  Southern New England will notice the change in air Saturday evening and night, whether or not your town sees a thunderstorm, and humidity will linger for the southern half of New England on Sunday with another low but present chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm.  In Northern New England, Sunday actually brings some really pleasant and comfortable air that will likely almost eliminate the chance of showers and make for a splendid day.  The comfortable, dry air in Northern New England will sink south for a great Monday far and wide, before deeper heat and humidity return for the midweek.  Though we aren’t forecasting another heat wave yet, we will have four days – Tuesday through Thursday – all within a couple degrees of 90, so that’s a possibility.  The early call on next weekend?  The same as the last several when they’ve first appeared on our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast: nice!


August Monthly Forecast: Warm...With More Great Vacation Weeks Ahead

LKN_30_DAY_FORECAST_TEMPSComing off the warmest July on record for some of New England, it would take a mammoth change in the weather pattern to bring this freight train of warmth to a screeching halt – a pattern change like that seems highly unlikely to our First Alert Weather Team, which is a big part of why we’re predicting warmer than normal temperatures for the month of August.  Considering the bigger picture, cool pockets in July were found over Eastern Europe and Siberia, but most of the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere saw warmer-than-normal conditions, so unless the jet stream troughs – the dips in the jet stream winds that allow cool air to spill south – re-establish over the Northeast United States to such an extent to pull down abundant cool air, we’re unlikely to break out of the dominant warmth.  As of this first day of August, we do see indications of the jet stream buckling south from time to time this month, but not so much as to flip the temperature pattern – perhaps just enough to keep two other July features going: occasional rounds of strong thunderstorms and shots of lower dew point, relatively pleasant air between hot spells.  When we put all of this together, this amounts to a continuation of the recent weather pattern of warmth in August.

 

LKN_30_DAY_FORECAST_PRECIP (2) LKN_30_DAY_FORECAST_PRECIP (2)Precipitation is always a trickier forecast this time of the year for two big reasons: thunderstorms and the tropics.  The thunderstorm impact was on display in July – spots that were hit directly by some of the stronger storms saw above normal rainfall for the month, while those who missed the storms fell short.  If we’re predicting a similar weather pattern into August, one could reason the rainfall pattern also should be similar.  Generally, when your precipitation forecast hinges upon the exact placement of thunderstorms, particularly in a pattern such as this with shots of dry air alternating with deeper heat, it’s wise to predict drier than normal conditions for the area, knowing some locales will be the exceptions where storms hit.  We opted for “near normal” rainfall, however, in Eastern MA through Rhode Island and Southeast Connecticut for the propensity for thunderstorms in this pattern to pick up tropical moisture as they settle southeast, and with the knowledge the tropics may try to contribute.  Having said that, the tropics have been quiet for much of this season and while there are signs we’ll see more Atlantic development in the coming days from this post, frequent shots of drier air to New England give little indication we should be overly concerned about a system running the coast…but the window will open at least a few times over the month as a large dome of high pressure will remain strong over the Atlantic.


Another Stretch of Fantastic Weather Settling Into New England

BLOG1New air is taking hold of New England!  Our heat wave has broken, though it took locally damaging thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening to do it, and though Thursday dawned humid for most of Central and Southern New England, the drier air that was palpable in a cool start across the North Country is bleeding south and will noticeably decrease humidity for all but Cape Cod by day’s end.  Because the cold front – the leading edge of the new, cooler and drier air – has not cleared Cape Cod yet, there’s a very limited chance of a new shower or sprinkle on Cape Cod by day’s end.  Expect a crisp, refreshingly cool overnight Thursday night with lows either side of 60 in Southern New England, and even some 40s in the North Country!  All of this leads to a bright and super-pleasant Friday.  Saturday and Sunday each bring a weak upper-level atmospheric disturbance, but limited conditions for showers and thunderstorms, so right now we have a low probability of some isolated storms on each day, with the greatest chance likely to be found inland.  As for deeper heat and humidity, right now our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast shows that deep summer air returning for the middle of next week, and while it’s still too early to say for sure, we believe another heat wave certainly is possible with high temperatures near 90 degrees Tuesday through Friday…starting August out on a warm note, which is contributing to our team’s August monthly forecast of warmer-than-normal conditions overall for the month.


Heat, Humidity Storms To Break By Thursday

FRONTS_D1Our heat wave rolls on across New England Tuesday and, for some, will extend into Wednesday. The last couple of days haven’t brought strong atmospheric disturbances, but they’ve been strong enough to result in at least isolated thunderstorms and the problem in a setup like this is any storms that develop feed off the ample heat and humidity and can quickly become strong.  We’ve seen this quick escalation in isolated storms the past few days and will see it again today, so keep an eye to the southern and southwestern sky, the direction the storms will be coming from, with locally drenching rain, lightning and the potential for gusty wind.  Otherwise, the story continues to be the heat with temperatures shy of records but reaching the lower to middle 90s with heat index values near 100 degrees this afternoon.  An approaching cold front Wednesday won’t arrive in time to keep temperatures from hitting 90 degrees in some communities, extending the heat wave, while others will fall just shy but humidity will continue and scattered storms will erupt during the afternoon and evening.  Behind the storms, brand new, fresh air will be moving in Thursday and stay into the weekend, with the next chance of increased humidity and scattered thunder later Sunday…and temperatures in the 80s in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.


Deep Summer Heat Is Back...Not As Dangerous As the Last Heat Wave

LKN_BOARD_PIC_WITH_TEXT (1)Deep summer heat has returned to New England and is boosting temperatures into the 90s again Monday and Tuesday, after exceeding 90 in many Southern and Central New England communities on Sunday.  These three consecutive days of 90+ temperatures will mark another heat wave, though this time the heat is less extreme – and less dangerous – than it was a couple of weeks ago.  Our last dose of significant heat and humidity saw temperatures nearing the century mark and dew point temperatures – the measure of the amount of moisture in the air – in the sultry 70s, combining for heat index values of around 110°.  This time around, actual temperatures reach 90 to 95 degrees and humidity is significant, but not as extreme, holding heat index values to between 95 and 100 degrees, which is a big difference on impact to the body.  The slightly lower humidity than our last round also will help overnight low temperatures to cool enough to afford some relief on the body for those without air conditioning, making the multi-day toll on the body less.  Nonetheless, hydration, avoiding overexertion and dressing in lightweight, light-colored clothing are all important points.  As for thunderstorms, the last few days have seen late day and evening storms that have been isolated but strong, and our Monday afternoon is not likely to be an exception to that rule, with the highest chance southwest and west of Boston, running into Western New England, between 4 and 8 PM Monday, ahead of a humid but quiet overnight.  Tuesday’s chance of storms is quite low, even though heat will be a bit stronger with heat index values near 100 degrees.  Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along a cold front Wednesday, marking a break in the heat that will usher in some lovely summer air for the end of this week into the weekend in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.


Pleasant Air Arrives for an Extended Stay

BLOG1An incredible stretch of weather has settled into New England, courtesy of a large dome of dry air and high pressure building in from Canada.  This will ensure several days of mild and dry weather with a light prevailing wind and sea breezes at our beaches.  The jet stream – the fast river of air, high in the sky, that steers disturbances and separates cool air to the north from warm to the south – will be changing this week…slowly lifting north and this means the air will slowly turn warmer in the days to come, all the way through the weekend.  The coast will see a bit more uneven warming due to sea breezes, but all of us will have the benefit of warmth without significant humidity.  Although more humid air will start trickling in this weekend, we really won’t feel the change until late Sunday, which also increases the chance of showers or thunder by Sunday evening inland.  Next week, humidity and heat both build and some of us may see a heat wave at the start of the week, with thunderstorms cropping up.  Behind a few days of scattered thunder, the air will change and dry out again, and the early call on next weekend in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast is looking pretty good!


Coming off a Confirmed EF-1 Tornado on Cape Cod, Quiet Weather Settles In

LKN_BOARD_PIC_WITH_TEXT (9) LKN_BOARD_PIC_WITH_TEXT (9)Although a storm survey continues of the tornado and storm damage on Cape Cod, we know from the government survey team that a strong EF-1 tornado touched down on the Cape yesterday, with at least one damage path from Yarmouth to Harwich.  As the survey continues, we’ll gain more precise details in the days ahead like path length and width, and whether any additional funnels touched down.  For now, we look forward to a weather pattern that will be far quieter – the feed of tropical moisture and humidity that aided in breeding storms over the past couple of days has been redirected offshore behind a cold front that has opened the door to new, dry air from Canada.  As the dry air takes hold, clouds will continue thinning Wednesday, affording for strengthening sun from northwest to southeast, though some puffy clouds developing during the afternoon may grow just tall enough to yield some inland sprinkles.  A crisp Wednesday overnight will feature low temperatures in the 50s for the first time in several nights for much of New England and that will lead to a sunny and pleasant Thursday.  Although warmth is expected to build through the weekend, humidity lags behind and this means the storm potential will remain low until later Sunday for some…and more likely Monday for others.  Early next week, humidity and heat will combine for another potential heat wave and surely a building chance of showers and thunderstorms.


With Heat Wave Over, Downpours Move In

Social1The heat wave has ended for New England, with 90s not expected Monday.  That said, while the deep heat has been forced south and the humidity has been cut back, it’s still humid enough that incoming disturbances aloft, moving west to east across New England, will trigger showers, downpours and thunderstorms.  The unsettled weather will come in fits and starts, at first, then expand and become more consistent as afternoon turns to evening.  Feeding off plenty of humid air aloft, downpours will drop quick, hearty rainfall that may result in localized flooding and ponding of water Monday evening into Monday night.  In Southern New England, particularly near the South Coast, we’ll also be on guard for embedded strong wind gusts that may cause localized damage.  Expect periods of rain and embedded thunder to continue off and on through the overnight into Tuesday morning, slowly settling southeast as the day wears on, but still producing showers for much of Southern New England through at least midday, holding temperatures to the lower 70s at even their warmest point.  Northern New England is likely to stay dry after an early shower exits Maine, and that dry and comfortable air will take over for all of New England for a pleasant and lovely day Wednesday, lasting into the start of the weekend with slowly rising temperatures that eventually will near 90 this weekend, first inland on Saturday, then even to the coast Sunday as humidity increases and a chance of thunder builds.  Heat and humidity is expected to stick around through the first half of next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.