Saturday Brings Warmest Air to Boston in 184 Days!

BLOG1 BLOG1The air is changing in the sky over New England and Friday’s cloud cover is evidence of the clash of cool air with incoming warmth.  Although organized rain won’t be entering New England until Friday evening and night from west to east, respectively, some sprinkles will fall during the day Friday for a few communities.  Perhaps most remarkable will be the difference in weather Saturday, behind Friday evening and night showers that linger into early Saturday morning but give way to increasing sunshine and highs in the 70s.  If our forecast high of 75 verifies in Boston, that will be the warmest for the City since October 10, making it 184 days since Bostonians were so warm on October 10.  Cape Cod and the Islands will likely remain in lots of clouds Saturday, holding temperatures down, courtesy of a southerly wind off the cool ocean waters.  A cold front will slice south across New England Saturday evening and ensure Sunday isn’t quite as warm and clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next storm system.  At this point, it looks like rain will develop from west to east Sunday evening and night, continuing into Patriots Day Monday, which of course has significant bearing on the running of the Boston Marathon.  If this storm takes the track directly over New England that we are anticipating, a sharp warm front will be moving from south to north across the Marathon race route early Monday morning, taking temperatures in the 40s early and raising them to the 60s by afternoon with a wind shifting to blow from the south and gusting to 50 mph by late day.  The heaviest rain is likely during the morning, but recurring showers will be with us through the day with some embedded thunderstorms even a possibility Monday midday!  Drier air arrives for the best days of April school vacation Tuesday through Thursday, before another expansive storm system to our west brings a renewed chance of showers for the end of next week in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

After Thursday Sun, Friday Clouds Herald Onset of Milder Air

BLOG1Although a fair weather dome of high barometric pressure is cresting over New England today, locking in dry air for plenty of sunshine mixed only with a few high altitude clouds, the big storm making headlines in our nation’s midsection will have an impact on our weather, even as it moves into Canada.  The counter-clockwise flow of air around the major Central U.S. storm has already scooped up a wealth of warmth responsible for record high temperatures in the South-Central U.S., and while that air will moderate on its way to New England, we still expect pronounced warming this weekend.  In the transition from cool, dry air to warmer air, we’ll find clouds increasing overnight Thursday night, cloudy skies with sprinkles and highs in the 50s Friday, and rain showers overnight Friday night into Saturday morning.  The biggest factor in Saturday’s weather is how quickly rain showers depart…with showers expected to slowly sag southeast Saturday morning to midday, likely allowing sun to break out for all but Cape Cod and the Islands, meaning all but the Cape should also be poised to rise to the 70s by day’s end.  Sunday will start dry but the next approaching storm center will be moving east into New England with rain developing by late day and evening, continuing into Patriots Day and the Marathon.  It seems quite likely rain will continue into the marathon, with our exclusive NBC10 Boston/NECN Forecast System showing a 75% chance of rain Monday, though it’s likely the heaviest would be focused during the morning and if luck is on our side, perhaps the heaviest could slide through before the starting gun, but right now it’s too early to say if that hope will hold merit.  The biggest question Monday is temperature right now, which is especially important if it’s wet, but right now our First Alert Team expects 50s.  The middle of next week will hold the best days for outdoor plans during school vacation week before the chance of showers and rain rises again toward the end of the week in the exclusive First Alert 10-day.

Gradual Improvement Begins for New England

BLOG1High pressure – fair weather – is building into New England and the Northeast for a few days, and this will mean gradually but steadily improving weather.  Sunshine is limited Wednesday, with ample moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere causing new clouds to build and billow through the day, generally blotting out the sun and ensuring a cool air will continue with highs only near 50…though still some 8 to 10 degrees milder than yesterday!  Gone, also, are the rain and snow showers as the final flakes depart from Eastern Maine and the final sprinkles nudge south of New England.  Clearing is expected Wednesday night as dry air takes hold, ensuring a cold night with lows in the 20s but a bright Thursday with similar temperatures to Wednesday but a warmer feeling thanks to the bright sunshine.  Meanwhile, a big storm over the Plains States will bring blizzard conditions there, while scooping up warmth ahead of its track and launching it toward New England, creating a round of showers Friday night into Saturday morning, then opening the door to highs around 70 Saturday afternoon where the showers come to a close – most of New England except perhaps Cape Cod.  Sunday may not be quite as warm, but should start pleasant ahead of a larger storm that will deliver rain Sunday night into Patriots Day for the Boston Marathon.  Although this raises concerns of a similar scenario to last year with rain and cool temperatures, our exclusive NBC10 Boston/NECN Forecast System is showing a 60-70% chance of rain Monday…so while not locked in and it’s possible the rain enters late Sunday and exits, at least in bulk, by Monday mid-morning, it’s not looking great at this early juncture.  Our exclusive First Alert 10-day is the only one in town you can plan all of school vacation week with!

After a Chilly Fenway Opener, Brief Bursts of Intense Rain & Snow

LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (8) LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_ACTIVE (8)The Red Sox open their Fenway season with clouds and classically cool New England spring air, as a northeast wind turns due east but carries cool, moist air in from the Atlantic Ocean, holding ballpark temperatures in the 40s with wind chill values in the 30s.  The continuous onshore wind has gathered enough moisture to result in drizzle from time to time, which likely will continue periodically through the game Tuesday afternoon, but won’t turn to substantial rain until an energetic upper level disturbance and associated weak surface storm system approaches from the west.  Owing to the large amount of energy aloft, downpours and heavy bursts of rain will be brief – lasting only a couple of hours during the late day and early evening – but somewhat intense as they race from west to east.  The northern half of New England will be cold enough for bursts of snow instead, and the intensity will be sufficient for a quick accumulation of two to four inches in most of the mountains of New Hampshire and Maine, with lighter accumulations outside of the mountains.  Clearing will follow the rain and snow bursts overnight Tuesday night, leaving a period of morning sunshine Wednesday before new clouds billow and take over the sky by afternoon, with a few sprinkles or light showers popping up from time to time, more likely to be snow showers in Maine.  Improvement will be gradual, day-by-day, heading into the weekend, but we end up with some incredible weather by Saturday, following a Friday night round of rain that ushers in enough warmth to push most of Southern New England into the 70s!  Sunday should be cooler ahead of our next storm center, likely to bring rain Sunday evening through the first half of Marathon Monday. While a cool, showery start to the marathon seems most likely at this point, there is plenty of reason for hope, as we’ve already seen the trend in rain timing slide earlier by several hours since yesterday…so finger crossing for even earlier timing to get the steadiest rain out by the starting gun may help…though the best forecast right now is for rain through at least the first half of Monday before seasonable and drier air arrives in the exclusive First Alert 10-day.

60s in Connecticut to 6" in Maine

LKN_ACCUMS_NEWENG_RANGEAn incredibly complex weather setup in the Northeast has meant incredibly varied conditions over New England for our Monday, from an expected six inches of snow in parts of Maine and New Hampshire to temperatures in the 60s in Connecticut – a meteorologist’s dream!  We’ll start in the north, where a cold northeast wind from Canada delivered enough cold for snow to fly, sticking not only to the grass but also to the roads, resulting in accidents even on highways Monday.  Snow will not only stick but accumulate in most of Maine along with Central and Northern New Hampshire, with the mountains picking up over half a foot in the high terrain, with two to five inches far more common for the rest of these northern areas.  Farther south, it may not be snowing but the cold air certainly has made itself known, taking predawn high temperatures near 50 and sending them down closer to 40, except in far southern New England, where the milder air has been holding on and temperatures in Connecticut, possibly into Rhode Island, should rise into the 50s and 60s except for the hilly terrain in northern parts of both states.  Though steady rain breaks up Monday afternoon, at least some showers will continue into the evening before cool air pushes even farther south overnight Monday night, sending low temperatures into the 30s for many, resulting in some pockets of black ice in Central New England including Northern MA and setting up a downright chilly Tuesday with pockets of drizzle and sprinkles, flurries north, and highs in the 40s with wind chill values in the 30s for the Red Sox home opener Tuesday afternoon!  By Tuesday evening, another round of showers and embedded downpours burst across New England with snow bursts in Central, Western and Northern areas and leaving snow and rain showers to linger all the way into Wednesday with highs again only in the 40s. Thursday and Friday bring marked improvement ahead of returning mild air Saturday with highs in the 60s…but right now our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast shows cool showers for Marathon Monday – something we’ll surely be keeping an eye on.

Red Flag Warning for Explosive Fire Growth Potential Thursday...Great Weekend Ahead

LKN_BOARD_PIC_WITH_TEXT (2)A Red Flag Warning has been hoisted for Central and Southern New England by the government, indicating explosive fire growth conditions today, particularly with regard to brush fires.  Westerly wind gusts have diminished to no higher than 45 mph today, down from the 60 mph gusts of Wednesday evening, and while this isn’t enough for much damage aside from a tree limb or branch that may knock out power to a few, the wind is plenty strong enough to fan the flames of any brush fire that develops.  With ample dry fuel – last year’s dead and dried brush and leaves littering the ground – and no leaves on the trees to provide shade to the forest and field floors, dry air and a gusty wind have plenty of help for fires to grow.  Of course, for a fire to start you need a spark, and there are two major ignition sources in New England, both caused by humans: cigarettes tossed aside without being fully extinguished, and poorly managed brush fires that get out of control.  So…the way we all can help to curb fire potential is to be aware and careful when it comes to anything capable of causing a spark.  On the bright side – literally and figuratively – the dry air is ensuring plentiful sunshine across New England, helping to offset a wind chill that never exceeds 40 degrees.  Although the wind subsides considerably Thursday night, a clear sky and dry air will mean temperatures dropping into the 20s ahead of a cool Friday...made cool not only by the air in place, but the lack of sunshine as clouds increase ahead of the next disturbance.  Friday evening and night brings a shot of milder air aloft and the clash with antecedent cold will result in rain and snow showers, with the snow accumulating a couple of inches in the mountains of Northern New England before melting quickly Saturday when mild air takes over and many towns jump into the 60s with sun!  Sunday may be a bit cooler, but still pleasant ahead of an increased chance of showers on several days next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

After Bombogenesis Off the Coast, Damaging Wind Gusts Possible

LKN_NBCU_WIND_GUSTS_NUMBERS_NEWENGNew England was grazed Wednesday morning by a powerhouse storm over the Atlantic waters – a hurricane-force storm center that underwent “bombogenesis” – what viral media has more recently referred to as a meteorologically non-existent but publically charming term, “bomb cyclone.”  We see these rapidly strengthening storms near New England with some regularity, but they often fail to make national headlines like the storm over the nation’s midsection two weeks ago, largely because the majority of the storm’s power remains over the ocean – today’s storm brought 80-90 mph wind gusts on the east side of the storm, but that was well out to sea.  As the storm departs, a beautiful day of mild air and sunshine follows, though air rushing in behind the storm will mean a quickly increasing wind this evening through Wednesday night, with wind gusts over 50 mph creating scattered power outages and tree damage, so our NBC10 Boston, NECN and Telemundo Boston First Alert Team continues a First Alert through Wednesday evening.  Thursday will bring a gusty wind again – but likely not as strong – with fair sky and highs in the 50s.  The coolest air of the next installment comes Friday with highs in the 40s, and this means the next disturbance may bring both rain and snow showers late Friday through Friday night, possibly with a couple of inches of snow in Northern New England before a fair and mild Saturday and another fair day Sunday.  A weekend of fair weather will truly have a bit of luck, considering showers return to the forecast quickly next week in a pattern typical of New England spring in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

Quick Shot of Heavy Rain, Wind and Some Wet Snow Early Wednesday

AADB3E92-FE08-41A8-92E5-2F9228005D86A quiet Tuesday precedes New England’s next coastal storm, slated to make a run just off of our coastline Wednesday morning.  Already Tuesday, while New England basks in sunshine with cool air holding highs close to 50 with wind chill values not exceeding the 40s, snow is falling in the Carolinas with a developing coastal storm that will rapidly intensify while pulling north and passing southeast of New England.  Though showers will develop on the Cape and Islands mid to late Tuesday evening, and along the South Coast by midnight, most of New England will find precipitation breaking out around or after 11 PM.  When the storm makes its closest pass Wednesday morning, rain will fall heavily with gusty winds, particularly on Cape Cod where gusts may exceed 45 mph briefly.  Of course, the heavy rain Wednesday morning will impact the AM commute and will likely mix with snow not only in Central New England and Maine...but also in the higher terrain of Southern New England, then mixing all the way to the coastline but not likely to accumulate more than a coating on the grass of Southern New England.  Interior Maine will see highest snowfall totals of 2”-4”, but by Wednesday midday, the storm will be over for nearly all of New England with emerging sunshine and a brisk westerly wind boosting temperatures to near 60 degrees!  Cooler and dry air sweeps in Thursday, with the next disturbances slated for later Friday through Friday night...and later Sunday through Sunday night.  The first of those may bring another mix of rain and snow, while later Sunday is likely to be mostly rain showers.  Another period of unsettled weather with slightly milder temperatures looks to be centered near the Red Sox Home Opener next week in our exclusive First Alert 10-day.

Mild Air Won't Reach All of New England...But 60s Expected For Some

BLOG1This weekend is bringing a shot of mild air for many in New England, though the goods will not be distributed evenly across the six-state region.  An upper-level atmospheric disturbance Friday delivers periodic showers to most of New England, excepting the Cape and far Southeast Massachusetts, where showers should remain to the north and a mostly cloudy but dry day is expected.  Of course, the showers will help to knock down the pollen count, which has been rising particularly with the introduction of maple pollen this week, and will concurrently decrease the moderate fire danger that contributed to Thursday’s Back Bay Fens brush fire in the reeds along the Muddy River.  Nonetheless, even showers aren’t stopping the move of milder air, transported into New England on a southerly wind and delivering daytime highs in the 50s for many on Friday and a relatively mild night Friday night.  Showers Friday night will shift northward, focused mostly on the northern half of New England where a light mix of rain and freezing rain will create some slick spots into Saturday morning.  Though most of Saturday is expected to be dry, save for some showers in the mountains, not everyone will be equally mild – a southerly wind will deliver highs in the 60s with breaks of sun to much of Southern New England, but it may take more than half the day to get warmth to far Northeast MA, and that warmth may never reach the NH Seacoast points north and east.  A passing cold front will deliver a period of rain from west to east, starting Sunday morning to midday, respectively, and wrapping up Sunday afternoon to early evening and ending as 1-2" of snow in the northern mountains.  Behind the cold front, a fresh shot of cool, dry and bright weather will start next week before a chance of showers at the midweek and week’s end in the exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.

As Milder Air Arrives, So, Too, Come Clouds and Showers

BLOG1One last day of brilliant sunshine Thursday before the air changes in New England – and while the air will change for the milder, the clash of incoming warmth with pre-existing cool air will generate plenty of clouds and some occasional showers along the way.  For now, the cool and dry air that started our workweek is moderating, and continued sunshine mixing only with decorative high-altitude clouds Thursday will afford high temperatures just over 50 degrees, though a steady southerly breeze will keep the wind chill values in the 40s.  Nonetheless, a decidedly spring feeling is returning to New England.  Increasing moisture associated with a new push of reinforcing warmth will bring clouds tonight with Northern New England showers, then occasional showers for all with highs in the 50s for most and 40s north on Friday.  As mild air continues to fight its way into New England from the south, the temperature battle zone creating showers will slowly migrate north, landing in Northern New England on Saturday while Southern New England stays mostly dry, with only a 30% chance of showers according to our exclusive NBC10 & NECN Forecast System.  An approaching cold front from Canada will carry Saturday’s North Country showers south, so Sunday brings showers for most of us, and probably enough cold air behind the front for some snow to fly in the North Country!  A shot of cool and dry air from Canada is expected early next week, before another chance of showers midweek and late week in our First Alert 10-day.